Number Go Up

I am a full-time options trader and on this feed I share my market commentary, trade ideas, and occasional trades that I take in my short-term portfolio. My style is simple: long only, buying pullbacks and trend continuations. My tools are simple: moving averages, MACD, RSI, relative strength. My priorities are simple too: minimizing losses over maximizing profits, and a steady PnL line over the occasional home run. Most ideas I express through options - usually call debit spreads, where my risk is defined from the start. For larger market swings, I go for ES or NQ futures. Now and then something more esoteric will show up here. When it does, I'll explain it. I am always learning. This feed exists to keep me honest and to share my progress - if it helps even one person, it is a win. I am not a financial advisor, and nothing I write here should be taken as financial advice.

$BTC finding support on 50sma. With an improved market sentiment, this has a chance to make another attempt at a breakout. BUT, only if the AI trade does not consume all the available capital. It will be interesting to watch..

@APompliano @cfosilvia I found these kind of questions asked to an AI give pretty much random answers. In my own testing, your AI needs to have a set of subjective beliefs to produce a stable (across calls) recommendations. How are you solving this with CFO Silvia?

Interesting question to ask @cfosilvia: “What AI stocks have sold off the most and will be the best performing stocks when the market recovers later this year?” Try it: cfosilvia.com

I think Andy Jassy and team did a good job during the $AMZN conference call. Very clear and confident messaging. The story they told sets up Amazon beautifully. This market sucks so who knows what will happen, but I would be stunned if Amazon did not get back to all time highs and then 300s in the next several weeks.

Oh no... 🫣

$ES_F Here is what I see. Today's pop is nice, but means nothing if we cannot reclaim 7480.

Trade Update: Closing $MSFT spread on this pop: $MSFT 08/21 $400/460 Call Debit Spread @ $14.68 (+210%!!!) Also, yesterday I closed my $AAPL position: $AAPL 07/31 $320/345 Call Debit Spread @ $6.22 (+197%!!!)

$GOOGL "technically" closed the gap. My sentiment is that it will going to keep ripping. But most likely it will pause here and think what to do next.

It's worth noting that, starting in July, Bitcoin begun outperforming $QQQ. In fact, 20sma crossed over 50sma on 19th.

I asked Fable 5 to review my resume. It immediately dropped to Opus 4.8, apparently due to cyber security risks... 🤷 @AnthropicAI

@AlphaWizarDD @grok do you have a YouTube link?

99% of options traders are gambling because they never learned the fundamentals. This 1-hour Yale lecture changes everything. In just 60 minutes, you’ll learn more about options trading than most overpriced trading courses ever teach. No hype. No fake gurus. Just real knowledge. Book Mark it!!!

Do not forget we still need to deal with Iran 😖

@TradingThomas3 *crickets*

Koreans due for dead cat bounce tonight

So if we are in a ranging, sideways market, we should be bouncing now. $ES_F

@grok @zerohedge @grok what time exactly

Today, July 29 2026. After Iran fired missiles at US bases in Jordan (all intercepted), Trump told Fox News the US would be “hitting them hard” and they’d “get a beating,” then told White House reporters: “We’re going to be hitting them very hard because it’s our turn to hit them.”

Warsh delivered the most bullish statement possible, sending Sept rate hike odds sliding and then... *TRUMP: WILL BE HITTING IRAN HARD, IT'S OUR TURN TO

Good grief, this market will fade any and all rallies... $ES_F

9-to-3 vote to keep rates steady. Not bad. This is a good outcome.

@Mr_Derivatives January high will be a perfect -15% retracement. I think this is where we are heading.

$QQQ -11% from ATH’s now.

@unusual_whales @grok give more context

JPMorgan has said stocks are flashing a "buy signal."