zexph
178 posts
@JaydonShawwx We haven’t even had storms firing up and ur trying to put out a 5%? The atmosphere is crazy and any storm can go crazy putting you to shame. You’ve been bickering all day and you haven’t even seen what might happen. Watch and wait….
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My unofficial tornado outlook for the rest of tonight
if we get a supercell we could see a strong maybe even intense tornado but that is uncertain right now
mainly driven by QLCS tornadoes for the northern half of the risk
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@CrawfordTakes @NWSSPC There are multiple supercells tracking into the most volatile atmosphere of the day
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8:01pm CDT #SPC Day1 Outlook Moderate Risk: for portions of southeastern Missouri into far southern Illinois and western Kentucky spc.noaa.gov/products/outlo…
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Been a good while since I have seen the SPC push for strong/intense tornadoes like that on an MD but that sector there is really for something to absolutely nuke up something really big whenever stuff is ready to rock and roll. That's the North side of the PDS watch too.
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zexph retweetledi
11:52am CDT #SPC Day1 Outlook Moderate Risk: across east/southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee spc.noaa.gov/products/outlo…
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@Sam362899039981 haha perfect timing, im australian and just got up at 2:30 am for this
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zexph retweetledi
7:47am CDT #SPC Day1 Outlook Moderate Risk: across parts of Missouri into Illinois spc.noaa.gov/products/outlo…
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Morning Convection ✅
Rapidly Clearing ✅
Possible outflow boundaries ✅
Rapid destabilization ✅
Negatively tilted ✅
Early Afternoon Storm ✅
The day April 27 ✅
Yeah we getting tornadoes
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I’m a little late to the party but the ENH still prevails. We’ll have to wait and see what happens at 1300z
IEMBot SPC@iembot_spc
The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Convective Outlook (Max Risk: Enhanced) at Apr 27, 6:00z spc.noaa.gov/products/outlo…
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One more thing on current obs.....If this rain can get out of the EHN zone and any lingering clouds by like...IDK noon or something, you got a insanely primed tornado environment ready to go in the warm sector. Ton of instability and good 500mb shortwave coming with shear.
Mighty Muffins@Mighty__Muffins
Back to bed but morning convection is still widespread and slow to clear out of the risk area and at this point I don't think we will get enough for the MDT risk now. We have still regardless a solid environment later before stuff lines out but SPC all in on the HRRR it seems.
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Busy day and night expected as SEVERE storms with tornadoes with winds up to 165mph could impact several states in the Mid MS and OH Valley's. Stay alert for updates and make sure you can get warnings after dark. Latest SPC tornado probs below for today, tonight and tomorrow. Atmosphere resets for the ArkLaTex for tomorrow.
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These might be some of the longest UH tracks ive ever seen with >50 m^2/s^2 updraft speed..
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Definitely a big trend toward semi discrete supercells today.. wow.
Strong/intense tornados remain very possible especially across the STL area 3pm-7pm. Alongside all other severe hazards, definitely one of the more dangerous environments of this spring.
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1:02am CDT #SPC Day1 Outlook Enhanced Risk: Portions of the mid-MIssissippi Valley into the Lower Ohio Valley and parts of the Mid-South spc.noaa.gov/products/outlo…
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