Rawl@EtherRawl
A day after the crash, I posted this. It’s basically a psychological observation our brains tend to adapt to new situations within 21 days. Once that period passes, we’re fully adjusted, mentally locked into the new “normal.” This principle also applies to the markets.
In 2018, the altcoin season lasted about 36 days long enough for people to get comfortable with higher prices and refuse to sell, believing it was just the beginning. In 2021, the cycle stretched to around two or three months. Again, more than 21 days and the same story repeated: investors got used to rising prices, convinced the rally would never end. I know cases where someone turned $50K into $500K, completely sure they’d hit $1M. Shortly after, the market reversed, and they ended up selling at $150K. Profit is profit, but it shows how FOMO overrides discipline.
Now, this cycle seems to be a blend of both 2018 and 2021 patterns. That means altseason will likely last longer than 36 days but less than three months once again crossing the 21-day psychological threshold. During that period, people will start believing prices can only go higher, when in reality, the move might already be over.
Now as we approach the end of the month, alts are retesting lows, and time keeps ticking. After 21 days, many traders start believing the worst-case scenario is inevitable. And right when everyone’s convinced the market is bearish that’s when the market delivers its reality check.