tk

币圈没啥机会了，IBKR也不给注册了，窗口期就这么短

@echoic2021 soon

@zkcoder 想亲眼看看飞船

看了Bob Lazar的纪录片和披露时代，外星人存在的概率确实挺高的。虽然Bob Lazar的故事真假难辨。但确实有这种可能，外星人的技术比我们高的不会太多，但他们有我们星球上没有的元素，所以能够进行星际旅行。

Cool use case of AlphaFold, this is just the beginning of digital biology!

唯一有意义的科研方向变成了研究用AI取代自己做科研

按照GPT的说法，即使有技术进步，人类生物肉体的极限 在两百岁左右，想要超过这个极限，还是要机械飞升。从 人格一致性的角度来说，脑外器官更换>生物脑渐进替换> 生物脑渐进迁移至电子脑>意识上传/复制。

One man mass-predicted the future of technology for 35 years and nobody repriced their worldview. In 1999, Kurzweil said AGI by 2029. Stanford organized a conference to discuss it. They polled several hundred AI experts. 80% said it would take 100 years. Geoffrey Hinton was among them. Kurzweil was the only person in the room who said 30 years. By 2024, Hinton publicly said he was wrong. Metaculus prediction markets moved from 2060 to 2036 to roughly 2028. Sam Altman, Dario Amodei, and Jensen Huang all converged on 2028-2029. Elon said 2026. The consensus moved 70 years closer to Kurzweil. Kurzweil didn’t move at all. What separates his method from the experts who kept updating: he never predicted AI breakthroughs. He predicted compute trajectories. His 1999 model tracked the exponential growth in calculations per constant dollar since 1939. A 75 quadrillion-fold increase. He just followed the curve forward. The experts at that Stanford conference were reasoning from the state of the art. Kurzweil was reasoning from the rate of change. That’s why they had to update every 5 years and he never did. 86% accuracy across 147 predictions. 35 years of receipts. And the next prediction on his list is the one people still laugh off: singularity by 2045, where machine intelligence merges with human cognition. The track record says stop laughing.

看来马斯克不太喜欢生物技术，不管是寿命延长还是人工大脑都是抗拒态度

人类大脑渐近替换至电子大脑

意识上传相关研究

人工大脑，或许能推动大脑渐近替换

-渐进式替换：（比如神经元一个个被等效替代、我全程清醒）变成现代版忒修斯之船问题，可以接受，只要我这边的体验不断线，就还是我，我不只是一个静态的人，我是一条在物理世界中连续运行的因果过程

另外一条路线，血肉苦弱，机械飞升的我还是我吗？ -意识上传/复制：不是，永生的是我的复制品，但在其他人眼中等价

如果ER-100临床试验进展的好，那么会有更多的公司来做这个，所以乐观估计10-15年之后会陆续有各种部位的抗衰药出来。

Life Biosciences和NewLimit是这个方向进展最快的两家公司，依然需要至少十年的等待，并且以往数据临床试验的通过率只有10%左右，好在搜索空间很大，即使OSK失败了，依然有其他众多的排列组合可以尝试。

表观遗传重编程，尝试把细胞的“软件层”整体拨回更年轻的状态，是逆转衰老最有希望的方向。其他的尝试都是小修小补，改善代谢、压炎症、清垃圾、补激素……有用，但上限太低了。

NewLimit：主攻肝脏等器官，用 LNP-mRNA递送“定制转录因子组合”，目前还在临床前（筛选/优化阶段）。若未来几年进人体，最乐观上市≈2036+，更现实可能 2038–2042 甚至更晚。 也就是这种药上市至少还要十年，慢慢等吧......

两个做逆转衰老的公司的进展 Life Biosciences：把“重编程因子 OSK”做成眼科基因疗法 ER-100，已登记 1期临床（计划 2026 启动）。如果一路顺利，最乐观上市≈2033–2035，更常见可能 2036–2040。

We should be praying for technology acceleration because on the other side, lies immortality.

音乐迈过简单，要么变得复杂，要么变得怪异，复杂的音乐标签一般是前卫，怪异的音乐标签一般是实验