GL Crypto@glcrypto1618
$BTC
Level of interest at 88900, a nice 5% reaction there which offered a good scalp (quoted post).
Even so, we still do not have bullish confirmations on structure (H4 TF), but the entry was fine.
The next support levels will be crucial, very important for this cycle.
In the latest YouTube videos I explained what I am expecting. I remained bullish up to 125K-126K, supported by a few important tools such as the Fib Circles, the Gann Square for those who remember, and also timing + bias.
At 125K–126K the price reached major resistances on other tools such as the Schiff Pitchfork (I made a video one year ago showing that within that range we could have a top), the Fibonacci Spiral, the Fib Time level 1 on the monthly, and others. After the first reaction on the lower side, as I explained in the videos, I could no longer stay that bullish on the bias and said that it was either the top, or we might see one last small leg up before the Bear.
During the last pushes up, I sold 65% of what I hold in BTC for the long term, I still have 35% but I do not want to sell everything. The short from 126K is still running + the others from 106K–107K. Now I am preparing for re-accumulation, meanwhile, other scalps in key areas.
In a video from two months ago, I presented the 100% level on the Golden Ratio Multiplier and what happened in the past, that is the yellow one in pic 2.
I was saying that we could get the first bear confirmation after it breaks below it with volume. Based on past cycles, after it breaks, that level turns into resistance, price bounces into it but cannot reclaim it as support, and then comes the second Bear confirmation.
So far we have the break with volume. The next step in the coming period is to see a good bounce into it or slightly above. From there we will update, because Market Makers have replicated a bit of what happened in the previous cycle, most people see this, and as usual they might flip it a bit… but the next step remains the same, we want to see the bounce into the golden ratio, and again… from there we will update because step 2 does not have to play out exactly like in the past.
There is still a small chance for a new ATH, and this is explained on PG and also in the latest YouTube video. If dominance drops, altcoins will perform well during that bounce.
Even though I am not focused on them (Alts), since I started in the online space I have always said that I stick mostly to BTC and ETH. I feel bad for those who are not positioned correctly or not in the right assets, and of course I prefer that everyone comes out well from this cycle. I also hold altcoins, but they make up around 7–8% of my total portfolio.
For them my bias remains the same, I am not talking about an Alt Season, as you have seen in other posts, but I do believe we will see stronger moves compared to what we have seen so far. It can start in the near future, it can happen quickly, and not necessarily on all of them.
I am not sure if this text sounds like I have a specific bias. I am not saying we have a 100% bear confirmation, we are only at the first step, and I do not care whether we enter a bear market or not, I am simply explaining what I see right now. For me, money management and positioning matter more. I am fine either way the market goes. Doing hedges all the time...
Only after the second step we can talk more about a proper Bear. Try not to lock yourself into a single direction bias and over-insist on it… the market will disappoint you at some point.
