Z
1.3K posts
Few ideas/SWINGS shared for X SUBS: LOT ALPHA BUT
$SPX 7550 target 5/12/26- 120+ POINTS LOCKED IN
$AMAT #IV 81%- Target was 185%, hit 181%(IV EXPANSION)
Regardless of #ER, it's free due to #IV and $SPX targets
See yourself.
x.com/astocks92/crea…
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@BearOnWindows95 says the retail trader who made some money on metals?
do you have any qualifications?
are you remotely institutional?
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Maybe this is day 20 of buy the dip? Surely it won't work again?
Market Data from @ConvexValue
-Volatility expectations (Term structure) is back at the lows; yellow = today, red = yesterday
-Cumulative gamma peak at 7515; 7150 cumulative flip.
-Overnight straddle is 37 points giving us an ON straddle range of [7407, 7481]
-Morning straddle is 31 and using spot 7470 gives us a range of [7440,7501]
-Weekly Straddle remains [7292, 7496]
-Overnight Volumes are average - way more calls; 7495 calls and 7400 puts are highest volume nodes overnight.
-PM POLR shows 7460
Net Exposure ($SPX)
-Pivot is 7450
-Targets above are 7460, 7475, 7495, 7515
-Targets below are 7440, 7420, 7400, 7390, 7370
Thoughts
-China Trump meeting is going on - Iran issue front and center, H200s to China - Let's see how high we can go!
-VOL Crush might push us towards 7515; let's see if 7437 is offered
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Benn Eifert’s QVR is winding down after a painful YTD drawdown
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Z retweetledi
Met a guy in Miami who buys Rolex watches with 0% business credit cards and flips them for 30 to 60% profit. He's cleared $340K in the past 18 months and the banks funded every single purchase
I thought watch flipping was dead. He showed me his spreadsheet and I felt stupid for 20 minutes
He buys specific models that have waitlists at authorized dealers. The Daytona. The GMT-Master II "Pepsi." The Submariner. These watches retail for $14,000 to $20,000 at the Rolex store but sell for $22,000 to $35,000 on the secondary market the same day because demand outstrips supply by 10x
He doesn't wait on a list. He buys from authorized dealers he has relationships with (he's been buying from 4 ADs across Florida for 3 years and they allocate watches to repeat customers). He walks in, puts a $14,600 Daytona on his Chase Ink Business Unlimited at 0% APR, walks out, lists it on Chrono24 or sells it to a collector in his network for $28,000 to $32,000
Profit on one watch: $13,400 to $17,400
Time from purchase to sale: 3 to 14 days
Cost of capital: $0
His last 12 months:
Watches purchased: 31
Average purchase price: $16,200 (mix of Daytonas, GMT IIs, Submariners, and a few Pateks)
Average sell price: $27,800
Average profit per watch: $11,600
Total revenue: $862,000
Total COGS: $502,200
Total profit: $359,800
Total interest paid to banks: $0
Total welcome bonuses earned from the spend: $14,200
He made $359,800 flipping watches and the banks paid HIM $14,200 on top of it in credit card rewards
The math on the rewards alone is insane. $502,200 in business card spend at an average of 2% rewards rate = $10,044 in cash back. Plus the welcome bonuses from cycling through new cards every 3 to 4 months to hit fresh bonus thresholds. He's opening 8 to 10 cards a year specifically to earn the signup bonuses on his watch purchases
His average card balance never stays above $0 for more than 2 weeks. He buys the watch on Monday, sells it by the following Thursday, and pays the card off. Card goes back to $0. Utilization stays under 1%. Score stays at 786
"Why don't the dealers just sell at market price?"
Authorized Rolex dealers are contractually obligated to sell at the manufacturer's retail price. They cannot legally mark up a new Rolex above MSRP without risking their authorized dealer status. So a $14,600 MSRP Daytona leaves the store at $14,600 even though a buyer on Chrono24 will pay $30,000 for it an hour later
The scarcity is manufactured by Rolex on purpose. They produce fewer watches than demand requires. This creates waitlists of 2 to 8 years at ADs. The secondary market price reflects the real demand. The AD price reflects an artificial ceiling
He sits in the gap between the two prices. The AD gets their retail sale. The end buyer gets the watch without waiting 5 years. He keeps the $15K spread. The credit card company charges him $0 and gives him $200 in cash back for the privilege
"What if the watch market crashes?"
It can. In 2022 secondary Rolex prices dropped 20 to 30% from their peak. But even at the bottom, Daytonas were still selling for $24,000 to $26,000 on a $14,600 MSRP. The premium didn't disappear. It compressed. His margin would have gone from $15K to $10K per watch. Still printing
And if it completely collapsed to below retail (which has never happened for the models he targets), he returns the watch within the AD's return window or sells at a small loss and settles the credit card. Worst case on a $14,600 watch: he sells for $13,000 and loses $1,600. On a $340K annual profit operation, a $1,600 loss on one watch is a rounding error
He told me the funniest part. He buys the watches on business credit cards issued to his "luxury goods consulting LLC." The watches are a business expense. Section 179 doesn't apply to inventory, but the cost of goods sold IS deductible against his revenue. His $502K in watch purchases offsets his $862K in sales revenue. He pays tax on $359K in profit, not $862K in revenue
His effective tax rate after deductions, business expenses (travel to ADs, shipping insurance, Chrono24 fees at 6.5%), and a solo 401K contribution: roughly 22%
Net after tax: roughly $280,000
From buying watches on credit cards that cost him $0 in interest
"How do I get AD relationships?"
He started by buying the watches nobody wants. The $6,000 Datejusts. The $8,000 Oyster Perpetuals. No waitlist. Thin margins. He bought 6 of them in the first year from the same AD and never flipped a single one from that dealer's inventory (he flipped from OTHER dealers so his AD wouldn't see him reselling). By year 2 the AD saw him as a loyal collector and started offering allocations on the hot models. By year 3 he was getting first calls on Daytonas
The whole play took 12 months of buying watches he barely profited on to build the relationships that now generate $340K a year
patience is a cheat code when your cost of capital is literally $0 and the banks are paying you to wait
(we get 700+ score business owners $100K-$250K in 0% business funding. some people start businesses with it. some people start watch collections. link in bio)
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As I said before $IREN is basically dogsht compared to $NBIS.
$NVDA didn’t give $IREN funding yet.
So IREN needs to figure out how to buy enough GPUs to monetize 5GW capacity through their 6B ATM and other means.
It’s an endless dilution machine just because they secured power.
I call $IREN holders 0 IQ because they just buy in it to get diluted without understanding nuances of financing.
Nvidia actually gave $NBIS funds.
While Nvidia got a free no-risk purchase agreement for allowing $IREN to use their logo.
$IREN is basically a marketing company at this point, while the other Neoclouds actually allow equity appreciation.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
I still am bearish on $IREN. Algorithms/retail probably read $NVDA + $IREN partnership and bought it up. However, if you look at the realtity, it's just looks like brand agreement giving $NVDA risk-free convertible notes. So $IREN can continue selling their $6,000,000,000 ATM into retail investors. It's the equivalent of a startup using AWS and saying they have an Amazon partnership so give them $6B. This wasn't Nvidia directly funding $IREN yet, just a risk free option to. There's a "5 GW deployment" but I'd rather not be the one buying into the dilution to fund it.
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$IREN Bitcoin miner aggressively pivoting into AI infrastructure. Three verticals:
1) Bitcoin Mining — One of the world's largest and lowest-cost Bitcoin producers, with 50 EH/s of installed self-mining capacity, 100% renewable powered.
2) AI Cloud Services — Rents GPU clusters (Nvidia H100/H200/Blackwell) to AI companies for training and inference.
3) AI Data Centers — End-to-end design, construction, and operation of liquid-cooled data center infrastructure tailored for AI workloads.
$NVDA secured a five-year option to purchase up to 30 million shares at ($70) per share - which is +14% from CURRENT LEVELS
$IREN secured a $9.7B contract with $MSFT, phased deployments through 2026, 5-year average term, with a 20% customer prepayment, targeting $3.4B in AI Cloud annualized run-rate revenue (ARR) by end of 2026 via expansion to 140k GPUs.
Bull case: The 2026 $3.4B ARR guidance accounts for only ~16% of IREN's 2.91GW of capacity — meaning the $MSFT deal alone doesn't price in the full land/power optionality. If AI power demand stays insatiable, $IREN has years of contracted growth ahead at a fraction of its buildout potential.
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🚨YOU DON'T WANT TO SKIP THIS POST 🚨
CHECK THESE THREE CHARTS OUT 👇🧵
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There is more fighting in Real Madrids dressing room than in Iran currently
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