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AdamWill
2.4K posts
AdamWill
@AdamWillCee
Shelter veterinarian. Spay/neuter surgeon. Community theater actor. Board Game player. TV watcher. 🐝 He/him
Entrou em Mayıs 2018
486 Seguindo62 Seguidores
@PNCBank_Help I'm sitting at one of your ATMs, which has swallowed my card and the checks I was trying to deposit and is now frozen and there is no evening assistance
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Good morning! We're here for all of your banking needs. Send us those questions!
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NEW: My cheat sheet to Tuesday features more than 500 races up and down the ballot.
Now we have it in PDF, printable form: Save it, print it, give it to your kids to color the electoral college, & use it your worksheet on Tuesday night.
Find it here: boltsmag.org/whats-on-the-b…
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@lxeagle17 I agree Harris has done well, but I'm not convinced that Biden dropping out earlier and the party going through a damaging primary was actually going to put our candidate in a better position than Harris busting out of the gate in July with crazy enthusiasm.
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I hate postmortems that view everything as obvious, so I'll pre-register this.
Nobody is perfect. But IMO, Kamala Harris has done incredibly well, given the hand she was dealt (especially by Biden), and if she loses, she'll be the one person I actually *don't* blame much.
ettingermentum@ettingermentum
For the record this was meant to be The Art of Losing: Kamala Harris, but I wavered on it and eventually decided to leave her out of the headline. Whatever her flaws may be, Biden put her in an unprecedentedly difficult situation.
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Account holder here, I remember Capital One automatically moving me to the higher-yield account, but I guess they didn't for everyone
wsj.com/finance/invest…
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@lxeagle17 I think everyone is just losing their minds. No one thought we could be in this position & no one knows what to do about it. It's so hard to say level-headed when we're on a knife's edge for something that shouldn't even be a question.
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Everyone on my timeline seems to be overreacting to salacious rumors shared by gossipy failed journalists and Aspiring Insiders.
I did not think the people I follow were this gullible, but I guess I was wrong about some of them.
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Open to eating crow on this, but if you're really thinking that there's a story coming out that will end the Trump 2024 campaign, then you must really be reaping the riches from that inheritance the Nigerian Prince shared.
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@JohnRSamuelsen Should we read into anything that Indies are tending to trend like Republicans?
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Early In-Person in Clark County, NV by Party %
as of 10/20/2024 by day (not cumulative)
We saw Dems do a bit better and Reps do a bit worse % wise on Sunday early in-person. Weekdays are important and we'll see what happens when we get Monday's data. Tend to be good for Reps.
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AdamWill retweetou
I mean, what the ef, guys?
Lakshya Jain@lxeagle17
1) There has been a dash of movement against Harris in core battlegrounds. 2) That's why the model tightened from 62% to 53% for Harris. 3) Dems are about to lose one of the most winnable pickup opportunities, and possibly the House, by triaging #NJ07. split-ticket.org/2024/10/19/tem…
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@lxeagle17 Is there a story on why the state party hates her so much?
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IMAGE: Donald Norcross to House Democrats
(2024, colorized).
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@mattyglesias @lxeagle17 I agree with a lot of Matt's takes; I disagree with some. But the Bullock takes are the funniest. If Bullock was going to inspire anyone... He would have inspired someone.
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The take that everyone gets mad at me for, and the one I've been most loathe to express publicly, is that I think Pete Buttigieg would have potentially been the best Dem nominee not named Joe Biden in 2020.
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@lxeagle17 @mattyglesias I think the mixture of the gop beating polling in two subsequent presidential elections and the absolutely terrifying consequences of Trump winning means that having a slightly better than a coin flip chance in this election is cause for dooming.
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Increasingly coming around to the @mattyglesias POV that partisan sorting (combined with the past polling misses) has resulted in the Democratic Party base becoming increasingly neurotic + anxious.
I've never seen a party doom so hard about having a 55% chance of winning.
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Wait... This isn't a parody account??!
@FrancesPatano, tell me I'm missing something.
Dave McCormick@DaveMcCormickPA
Fun tailgate in Philly today 🏈 Excited to watch the Steelers throttle the Raiders!
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On the latest episode of Agatha All Along she's chanting some Latin and at one point says "esse viridis non est facile" which translates to "its not easy being green" and I absolutely love that Easter Egg
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A great summary of not just Andy's strengths but also Bashaw's weaknesses.
njdotcom@njdotcom
Star-Ledger endorsement: Andy Kim for U.S. Senate nj.com/opinion/2024/1…
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@lxeagle17 But we still hear "throw it in the average" and trust the polls and we can't predict the direction of the error...
How should knowing this is going on affect our thoughts when reading polls and averages and models? How do we get useful takeaways?
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@AdamWillCee IMO Ethan and Nate Cohn are clearly right. weighting by recalled vote is a very strong hammer to get you back to 2020 results, where things "look" reasonable.
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