AlFa_C1

@mb_ghalibaf Why wait after markets are closed to make this announcement 2 am Tehran?

۴- عبور و مرور در تنگهٔ هرمز بر اساس «مسیر تعیین شده» و با «مجوز ایران» انجام خواهد شد. ۵- باز یا بسته بودن تنگه و مقررات حاکم بر آن را میدان مشخص می‌کند نه شبکه‌های اجتماعی.

۱- رئیس جمهور آمریکا در یک ساعت هفت ادعا مطرح کرد که هر هفت ادعا کذب است. ۲- با این دروغگویی‌ها در جنگ پیروز نشدند و حتما در مذاکره هم راه به جایی نخواهند برد. ۳- با ادامهٔ محاصره، تنگهٔ هرمز باز نخواهد ماند.

@araghchi After this and other tweets by senior Iran officials I'm convinced that they work in tandem with Trump in order to manipulate the markets. No other explanation to @araghchi timing this tweet to support false Trump "straight open" agenda

In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Rep. of Iran.

@DarioCpx Why did he tweet 2am Tehran time and after market close?

After this post, a deafening silence fell all over FinX

@Silbernard14337 @zerohedge Ahaha

@zerohedge Its not called Barrel of oil anymore, its called 1 Trump of oil

*NASDAQ 100 EXTENDS RALLY TO 13 DAYS, LONGEST STREAK SINCE 2013 It's Dec 31, 2040; the Nasdaq is up for 5385 straight days on hopes Iran peace will come "any minute." A barrel of physical oil cost $1 trillion (unlike paper oil which pingpongs on PolyHyperHood for 99 nanocents)

@zerohedge Bro, you seems to be exhausted. We all actually are.

@aleksthgrt Why send them to the border? Its ICBM! Such a dumb headlines

🚨Russia is reportedly sending ICBMs to its border with Finland.🇷🇺🚀☢️

@adamscochran I was thinking about next round of war. I`m pretty convinced its gonna happen, the only question is when? I doubt US will launch major ground invasion in April as summer is impossible in a Gulf region. CF gonna last till September IMO

The date that the last US ship is due to arrive in the Gulf, and the date that ends the ceasefire…. And Iran is moving all schools remote starting that date

You're not fooling anyone, @Aster_DEX. I have your market maker model figured out. Eight bull traps across these ranges, all engineered by a market maker running the exact same playbook. Step 1: Massive god candles from mid-range to squeeze shorts. Step 2: Fake a breakout to trap longs. Step 3: Nuke the chart over the next two candles to wipe out the other side. Rinse and repeat in every range. This is a perps platform systematically wiping out its own perps holders every few days. Dirty work. I out-traded your MM in the bull run. It will be no different in the bear. ♟

At this point I'm convinced that if Iran actually hit and sank a US aircraft carrier - markets would shoot to ATH and oil would go to $1.

Physical oil barrels are trading at a never before seen premium to the manipulated paper barrels that are shown on your screen

@DeItaone I swear I`m gonna loose my mind if I`ll have to read this salad for another week

TRUMP: WE'VE BEEN CALLED BY THE OTHER SIDE AND THEY WANT TO MAKE A DEAL VERY BADLY

@KobeissiLetter makes perfect sence

BREAKING: US oil prices fall back below $100/barrel in a large reversal on the day.

Oil futures dumped on the fake news, but now that the fake news has been exposed it not recovering. Spot futures at the same time is trading at 140$. This whole thing is screaming manipulation so loudly I can hear it even from my home in Hong Kong

US Navy SOH blockade starts USN ship approaches Iran tanker IRCG Navy warning USN ship begins boarding IRCG Navy attack USN ship hit US retaliation bombing campaign begins Iran counteroffensive on Saudi, UAE and Israel 🇺🇸 Ground invasion countdown begins You are welcome

And just like that we now understand the importance of Cuba.

Orban lost the election. There is now nothing to stop the EU from pouring billions more into financing their war, which will very likely trigger a direct war with Russia. Not a great day for Europe and peace.

@DarioCpx Traders are waiting for the first set of bombs to drop before finally acknowledging the reality that the peace talks and ceasefire have truly failed. Once that reality check happens the market will break hard.

Okay, who did this? 😂

@mb_ghalibaf I wonder how you imagine point number 2

Two of the measures mutually agreed upon between the parties have yet to be implemented: a ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of Iran’s blocked assets prior to the commencement of negotiations. These two matters must be fulfilled before negotiations begin.

@DarioCpx @remindmeof_this in one week

I believe that Iran is playing a game of chicken with the US in the oil market because that's Trump's real political cryptonite and true leverage they can exploit in the negotiations to end the war. ⚠️ The first time, Iran waited 48 hours before officially rejecting the US proposal. That sent $CL May price all the way up to almost ~116$ on by this Tuesday, while the various Tacos along the way were only effective to hold up stocks and hold down the June contract. 🚩As you can see in this chart I made, that was the exact point in time when oil futures started to factor in significant supply stress with the spread between CL1 and CL2 hitting ~16$ on Tuesday. Here is where things become interesting. As you can see in the chart, the June 26 WTI futures contract (that becomes CL2 after the 18 of March) only briefly traded above ~100$ a few times since the 9th of March. On the other side, the May contract surpassed the ~110$ 9th of March high one month later on the 2nd of April. It is no coincidence, in my opinion, that during the Easter weekend, it was when President Trump lost his temper when he posted the famous "open the f-ing Strait". Why? Because he was surely informed that not too far above the oil futures market was about to break loose, since those who were short that contract were starting to get squeezed hard. After a brief market relief from that post, the squeeze resumed till Monday, when, as reported by the FT, the US administration was pushing hard on Pakistan to open a direct negotiation channel with Iran. 🚩Here is when Iran seized the opportunity again, this time having more leverage in the negotiations, to the point that they got a public preliminary acceptance of their 10 conditions to end the war (the president even reposted FM Araqchi statement, the post is now deleted). Those conditions would have never been accepted if the GCC or Israel were actively involved in the negotiations, but Trump was in a rush to announce a ceasefire to trigger an oil futures price crash and avoid a sudden spike that could have crashed stocks. Again, I do not think it is a coincidence that on Monday, several large $QQQ short positions were placed in the market with 13th of April expiry. ⚠️If I am right and Iran continues its game of chicken with the US, which has already figured out how they are in no position to accept all the conditions Iran asked, as early as tomorrow, Iran is going to announce they will pull out from the ceasefire talks in Pakistan. This is going to be a MASSIVE problem for the oil futures market, which at that point will be about one week away from the May to June contract rollover. Why? Because not only will the May 26 contracts resume running higher when shorts are in the process of rolling their positions into June, but traders will be forced to price in the supply tightness in the June contract that can potentially even start trading in contango if the conflict escalates further and its end is then projected later in the future. Beware that so far I haven't factored in additional supply disruptions caused by more strikes on oil infrastructure in the Middle East and potentially the closure of the Bab-El-Mandeb strait. These additional elements can spark the perfect storm on the June 26 contract, with prices likely surpassing the recent ~120$ high by a big margin till the point the pain will be significant for Trump again (maybe because stocks will be crashing at that point causing a big political problem for him too) and he will be willing to accept Iran's conditions and pull out of the region. Feel free to bookmark this post