Colubeat ID

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Colubeat ID

Colubeat ID

@ColubeatID

✍️I analyze great businesses. Some undervalued, all high quality. Always learning 🔗 https://t.co/k91CQDZ0Ov

Entrou em Nisan 2012
531 Seguindo419 Seguidores
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Colubeat ID
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID·
Just published $RYN thesis. Went through every segment, every risk, valuation, and still some parts don’t really model cleanly. One of the more interesting setups I've spent time on. Curious what those of you who know the sector think. Link 👇🌲
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Colubeat ID
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID·
@Mr_Neutral_Man That's a high bar lol. I'd happily settle for "decent buyback machine" though, no complaints there
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Colubeat ID
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID·
@Mr_Neutral_Man Didn't expect a housing bill to make me this curious about the SFR names
GIF
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Colubeat ID
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID·
@Mr_Neutral_Man Math checks out, no doubt. but does that actually close the discount, or is it just NAV/share going up while the market keeps slapping the same discount on it anyway because there’s no growth story left?
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Colubeat ID
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID·
Elliott disclosed a ~5% stake in $BNZL. Wants a 10% buyback and a review of North America, possibly a split. Bunzl still trades 40–50% below distribution peers on forward P/E. Elliott thinks separating NA closes that gap. Looks like the thesis just got a new catalyst.
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Colubeat ID
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID·
A hurricane that caused $1.28B of timber damage in Georgia in 2024 may end up being good news for the company that owns the land. Salvage wood is gone. Lost inventory takes years to replace. Tighter local supply later. North Georgia sawtimber was already up 20% YoY by Q42025 $RYN
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Colubeat ID
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID·
An acre of pine forest in Georgia is worth around $2,500 as timberland. Entitled for residential development: $25,000+ Commercial parcels in the right corridor: $150,000+ Same acre. Different paperwork. That's the $RYN real estate business.
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Colubeat ID
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID·
Same sawmills. Same capacity. Same workers. 2021: $394M EBITDA 2024: -$7.7M That's lumber. Rayonier bought all of them at the 2024 cycle $RYN
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Colubeat ID
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID·
Just published $RYN thesis. Went through every segment, every risk, valuation, and still some parts don’t really model cleanly. One of the more interesting setups I've spent time on. Curious what those of you who know the sector think. Link 👇🌲
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Colubeat ID
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID·
The more I read the more I realized the company doesn't fit any clean category. Hard to compress something like that into a neat summary.
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Colubeat ID
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID·
New write-up today. A company that owns timberland, develops land, and sits across U.S. housing-linked cycles, but the market seems to treat it as something simpler. That gap is what I looked into.
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Colubeat ID
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID·
@invest091 Great. Let me know your thoughts, and if there's anything else you'd add.
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Colubeat ID
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID·
I went through the $POOL Q1 release and the earnings call. I haven't changed my view. Q1 actually hit four of the five signals I set for this year. I put together a quick read on the gross margin and the current inventory levels. (<10 min read)
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID

If you're long $POOL (I am), this Q1 print gave us exactly what we needed. Those 50+ new centers aren't dragging margins anymore, they're actually driving growth. With Rev +6% and Op Income +7%, we've officially hit positive op leverage. Quick read for now full detailed note soon

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Colubeat ID
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID·
Working on something for next week. Founded a century ago. Owns something that took decades to build and can't be assembled quickly at any price. Private buyers paid 44x EBITDA for a piece of it in 2024. The public market today disagrees by a wide margin. One of them is wrong.
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Colubeat ID
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID·
Most people see depreciation, read non-cash, and move on. That's fair. But depreciation isn't a fact. It's a guess. The second-hand market grades that guess publicly every time a company sells something old. BTN #03 - $GATX as the lab. <10 min👇
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Colubeat ID
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID·
Covered $HAE in depth about a month or so back. Nice to see it moving.
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Colubeat ID
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID·
Been looking at this one. $SITE hit $101 today. Same price as 2019. Revenue since then: $2.4B v $4.7B, FCF: $158M v $247M. 690 branches, 0.8x net leverage, 11.8x EV/EBITDA. Maybe the cycle is in the price. The consolidation story probably isn't.
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Colubeat ID
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID·
@gus_finknottle Updating that section in the article to reflect the distinction more accurately. Appreciate you pointing it out.
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Colubeat ID
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID·
@gus_finknottle Good catch. I correlated margin expansion w/ Waha collapse and stated it more precisely than the evidence supports. USLM never names a hub. Cleburne is Barnett country, not Permian, the benefit is cheap regional TX gas, not literal Waha pricing. Should've been clearer on that.
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Colubeat ID
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID·
$USLM + AI infrastructure. Spent time going through the construction docs, soil data and steel filings. The documents tell a slightly different story from the one going around. Full write-up👇 open.substack.com/pub/colubeatid…
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