Dewey Ded

The ghost of defeat begins to haunt Anyone who has been following me for several days will have seen that I’ve been tracking and repeating this same perception, which has now been published today by several major American newspapers. And I’ll go even further: The US-Israel alliance is suffering a defeat the likes of which hasn’t been seen in a very long time. The number of hospitalized people in Israel has risen to nearly 2,500, which reflects the scale of the Iranian response. Unfortunately, the vast majority are civilians, just as they are in Iran. Air-defense batteries are being rushed in from Asia because Iran has destroyed or severely damaged several radars that are critical to these systems. Interceptors are also being urgently flown in from Asian countries. 150 American soldiers have been wounded and 7 have been killed so far. Around 30 expensive Israel-US drones have been lost. Billion-dollar damage has been inflicted on bases across the region, as well as on satellite communication systems in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Israel. Iran has been launching missiles across 7 fronts for 11 straight days, day and night, with no sign of stopping. And what are the US and Israel doing in response? The exact same thing: dropping bombs on Iran. Do you know what this has changed in the conflict? Absolutely nothing. Iran remains resilient in the face of these airstrikes, which so far have destroyed only a small portion of its arsenal. But if Iran isn’t winning on the damage game, where exactly is it winning? In an asymmetric war, you don’t need to dispute the damage on the front line , you just need to be resilient and exhaust your opponent, because he will eventually be consumed by “the pressure and critics”. Iran has thousands of modern drone and of many types and models to secure the strait, along with a large stockpile of anti-ship missiles. I see no realistic chance of Iran losing the Strait of Hormuz now or at any other point in this war. For that to happen, there would need to be a massive ground invasion, and it would have to actually succeed. Meanwhile, Iran is not only striking on 7 fronts but is also enforcing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. What cards do the US and Israel still have left when it comes to forcing Iran’s surrender? Only the nuclear option. But I don’t believe there’s even the political atmosphere to seriously consider that. If the strait is actually mined, Iran will have taken one more decisive step toward checkmate against the Israel-US coalition. Can Iran’s arsenal sustain a prolonged conflict? My estimate is that they have already fired 2,000–2,500 missiles and still have at least 10 times that number left in the 300-2,000 km range. ( considering the years of production and the industrial size) I do not see Iran being defeated due to a lack of missiles, at least at this moment.