Evan Lawing

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Evan Lawing

Evan Lawing

@EDLAnalytics

Hockey analytics among other things

Philadelphia, PA Entrou em Aralık 2024
508 Seguindo242 Seguidores
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Evan Lawing
Evan Lawing@EDLAnalytics·
Just published my new article, xReboundsPlus, Creating a Statistic to Predict Rebound Quality, on Medium! This was an interesting project that took me a while to make but I'm happy with how it turned out. Let me know what you think or how I can improve! @elawing1018/xreboundsplus-creating-a-statistic-to-predict-rebound-quality-b274c7b0c432" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">medium.com/@elawing1018/x…
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Evan Lawing
Evan Lawing@EDLAnalytics·
@FowleBall15 Yeah you’d think it would be higher, that’s interesting. I’m assuming that’s part of the reason why they didn’t trade for a center at the deadline and left Stank on the second line. Probably feel he’s a good regression candidate
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rooster trick@FowleBall15·
Team composition using Evolving Hockey's even-strength corsi (shot share) and goals RAPM metrics (isolated player impact). "Finalist" ~ conf finalist; 15+ playoff games in a season "PO" = playoffs; 1-14 games "No" = no playoffs
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Evan Lawing
Evan Lawing@EDLAnalytics·
@FowleBall15 Seattle loves that build it all out of second line strategy lol
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Evan Lawing
Evan Lawing@EDLAnalytics·
@FowleBall15 Yeah that distribution for Dallas is pretty shocking given their overall team strength. How does Stankoven look? Also makes sense with Johnston since more than half his goals are PPG and almost half his points are on the PP
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rooster trick@FowleBall15·
@EDLAnalytics Dallas is a big surprise in a bad way. The Rantanen trade was awful for them. Hintz injury an issue of course. Johnston getting glazed despite being an awful playdriver right now.
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Evan Lawing
Evan Lawing@EDLAnalytics·
@FowleBall15 Any surprise teams that have the 4 star forwards and <=2 replacement level this year? I would assume the Avs and Lightning fit that criteria
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rooster trick@FowleBall15·
For deep playoff runs you need ~4 star forwards and only 2 replacement-level forwards. These numbers are averages across all seasons, as well. Presumably plenty of conf. finalists had 0 or 1 replacement-level guy getting regular minutes.
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Evan Lawing
Evan Lawing@EDLAnalytics·
Top 10 wrist shot shooters at 5v5, the last 3 seasons Congrats to the Sabres on the top shooter with Tage Thompson. Egor Chinakhov follows him, who has been shooting really well since getting traded to the Pens. Morgan Geekie rounds out the top three
Evan Lawing tweet media
Evan Lawing@EDLAnalytics

Here are the top 10 goalies in the NHL over the past three seasons. Igor Shesterkin leads the way, followed by Dostal I've been building on this xG model as well with different effects like shooter handedness, rebound shots, and the goalie effect. This is shooter agnostic

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Evan Lawing
Evan Lawing@EDLAnalytics·
@MuffinHockey Knight bailed the Hawks out a bunch of times last night, 2026-27 Vezina run coming
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Evan Lawing
Evan Lawing@EDLAnalytics·
The Blackhawks used 5 forwards in that power play, there’s probably some really cool analysis that can be done if the sample size gets big enough. Almost saw the negative side of it with an Oilers breakaway but Spencer Knight bailed the Hawks out
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Evan Lawing
Evan Lawing@EDLAnalytics·
Should have mentioned this is the best goalies against wrist shots at 5v5
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Evan Lawing
Evan Lawing@EDLAnalytics·
Here are the top 10 goalies in the NHL over the past three seasons. Igor Shesterkin leads the way, followed by Dostal I've been building on this xG model as well with different effects like shooter handedness, rebound shots, and the goalie effect. This is shooter agnostic
Evan Lawing tweet media
Evan Lawing@EDLAnalytics

Built on the previous baseline xG model and added coordinate warping to it, so the model will more accurately reflect the goal probability when close to the goal line. It looks like a baseball diamond, which is perfect since it's baseball season now!

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Evan Lawing
Evan Lawing@EDLAnalytics·
@BuckAnalytics Nice work! Looking it on the level of a team or a specific line could lead to some interesting results to value coaches as well
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Ryan Miele
Ryan Miele@BuckAnalytics·
Here is my project for the 2026 HALO Hackathon, where I quantify a defender’s value by estimating the expected goals they prevent through blocking passing and shooting lanes. Give it a read! #HockeyHALO2026 @ryancmiele/what-never-happened-measuring-defensive-value-through-spatial-suppression-b7f1953c3323" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">medium.com/@ryancmiele/wh…
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Evan Lawing
Evan Lawing@EDLAnalytics·
Super excited to share my project from the 2026 HALO Hackathon, Rating Forecheckers Through Spatial Tree Boosting. This was my first time working with SportLogiq data it was really interesting to see the private data side. #HockeyHALO2026 @elawing1018/rating-forecheckers-through-spatial-tree-boosting-eaa8f68fca6b" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">medium.com/@elawing1018/r…
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Evan Lawing
Evan Lawing@EDLAnalytics·
@JPohlkampHartt Thank you! I was really excited to get to look at forechecking and positioning since I don’t really get to work with it with public data. Really excited to see how it evolves even more in the future
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Josh Pohlkamp-Hartt
Josh Pohlkamp-Hartt@JPohlkampHartt·
This was a very cool talk! The use of “ghost” players to evaluate positioning is the kind of great stuff tracking data can do.
Evan Lawing@EDLAnalytics

Super excited to share my project from the 2026 HALO Hackathon, Rating Forecheckers Through Spatial Tree Boosting. This was my first time working with SportLogiq data it was really interesting to see the private data side. #HockeyHALO2026 @elawing1018/rating-forecheckers-through-spatial-tree-boosting-eaa8f68fca6b" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">medium.com/@elawing1018/r…

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Evan Lawing
Evan Lawing@EDLAnalytics·
@csv_enjoyer Thanks Ray! It’s getting nice in Philly, we’ll have to get out and golf soon
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Evan Lawing
Evan Lawing@EDLAnalytics·
Also, I wish I could have made the trip out there, it seemed like a great time and super interesting from everything that I've seen on here!
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The Athletic NHL
The Athletic NHL@TheAthleticNHL·
Welcome to our very early first official ranking for the 2027 NHL Draft class. This initial top 25 is predominantly made up of 2009-born (yes, you read that correctly) prospects.
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Evan Lawing
Evan Lawing@EDLAnalytics·
Big shoutout to @pymc_labs for laying the groundwork for me to translate this to R. I based the warping off of this article, which is a great read #model-2-coordinate-warping" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">pymc-labs.com/blog-posts/bay…
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