Evolved🅰️

$ASTS down 8% today as people sell the launch news. They are stepping over dollars to pick up pennies. The launch yesterday was a clean success. BlueBirds 8, 9, and 10 went up on a Falcon 9, bringing the constellation to nine operational satellites. These are Block 2 birds with 2,400 square foot arrays, the largest commercial communication arrays ever deployed in low earth orbit, delivering close to 200 Mbps directly to a normal unmodified smartphone. The thing everyone said could not be done is flying right now. So the drop is just classic sell the news. The catalyst hit, traders took profits, and they are forgetting what this company turns into on the other side. This is a cash cow in the making. Look at the model. Every major US carrier is signed. AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile. 3.3 billion addressable subscribers sitting inside global partner networks. AST does not spend a dollar acquiring a single one of them. The carrier brings the customer, AST provides the coverage from space, and they split high margin recurring subscription revenue. No stores. No marketing. No customer acquisition cost. Now think about the numbers that come with that. If even a small fraction of 3.3 billion addressable users convert to a few dollars a month each, you are talking about billions in recurring revenue on infrastructure that is already paid for once the satellites are up. The incremental cost of serving one more subscriber from orbit is almost nothing. That is the kind of margin profile that prints money. A satellite network that becomes a subscription toll on global connectivity. And they are funding it from strength. $3.9 billion in cash. Over $1.2 billion in contracted revenue commitments already locked. Manufacturing up to six satellites a month, racing toward the 45 to 60 birds that flip on continuous commercial service. A near monopoly on direct to device connectivity for the entire planet, every major carrier already signed, trading at a fraction of what that future cash flow is worth. People are selling a successful launch. I am watching a future cash machine go on sale. $ASTS

So much $ASTS talk Let the chart speak for itself: - At a strong level currently - Near 200 EMA - Right along lower channel - Sub C wave I am DCA’ing for long term position

Unsurprisingly $ASTS is getting better at this. Early data of Bluebird006 is sparse but this level of stable flight seems to have taken 14 days more to achieve with Block2 Flight Model 1, compared to Bluebirds 8-10

$ASTS daily stochastics and stochastic momentum are at extreme lows. At minimum we should see a sharp bounce if not a low formed soon *NFA

$ASTS: 🚨 AT&T/VERIZON/T-MOBILE JOINT VENTURE POLICY ISSUES AND IMPLICATIONS - NEW STREET RESEARCH 5/15/26 New Street Research spoke with AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile and AST SpaceMobile in putting together this research report. I had Gemini summarize the key implications for AST SpaceMobile in the first section below as well as summarize the report itself which is further down. FWIW, New Street seems to be closely aligned with my view of the JV's impact on ASTS. 👉Key Implications for AST SpaceMobile: Based on the provided analysis in "New Street Research T/VZ/TMUS JV Policy Issues and Implications", the proposed joint venture carries significant positive implications for AST SpaceMobile: ✅ Validated as the Unified Carrier Choice: The text explicitly notes that the Big Three are "doing the deal with AST". This positions AST SpaceMobile as the primary satellite partner chosen to anchor a unified platform serving all three major U.S. wireless carriers. ✅Positioned as the Regulatory Counterweight to SpaceX: A central defense the Big Three will use to clear antitrust scrutiny is that partnering with AST SpaceMobile actively increases competition in the satellite sector. The report highlights that policymakers strongly desire to establish "three viable satellite providers" to challenge SpaceX/Starlink's current market dominance. ✅Expanded Scale and Reach: The joint venture aims to pool limited spectrum resources to "help satellite providers reach more customers through a unified platform". For AST, this provides an immediate, streamlined path to scale its direct-to-device (D2D) services across the combined subscriber bases of AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile simultaneously. ✅Shifted Industry Leverage: By capturing a combined commitment from the Big Three—who previously resisted or hesitated over satellite MVNO models—AST transitions from a speculative add-on to a core, defensive infrastructure component that carriers are utilizing to lower their traditional rural cell tower costs. 👉A longer AI summary of the report: Executive Summary On May 14, 2026, "the Big Three" carriers announced an agreement in principle to form a joint venture. The initiative aims to eliminate U.S. wireless dead zones—particularly in rural and underserved areas—by pooling limited spectrum resources to facilitate next-generation direct-to-device (D2D) satellite communications. New Street Research views this as a strategic use of game theory by the carriers to bolster their buying power, defend rural market shares, and lower their cost structures. Key Implications 1. Increased Leverage Over Rural Infrastructure Tower Lease Negotiations: In the long term, the JV gives the Big Three significant leverage when renegotiating terms with rural cell tower owners. Cost Shifting: D2D satellite connectivity is cheaper than maintaining physical cell towers in ultra-rural areas and along highways. The carriers can threaten to rely on satellite coverage if tower companies do not lower their pricing. As a result, capital expenditures (capex) may redirect away from rural areas and toward urban/suburban network densification. 2. Reduction in Rural Capex Eased Political and Competitive Pressures: While carriers face no legal obligation to build networks in unserved, low-profit areas, they previously faced competitive and political pressures to do so. The JV provides an alternative to continuing physical network builds, effectively reducing these pressures. 3. A "Mixed Blessing" for Rural Customers Pros vs. Cons: Rural Americans will obtain broader coverage much sooner, but terrestrial cellular networks may never fully expand to their areas. Higher Costs: To achieve the same level of coverage that urban and suburban users get under basic plans, rural customers will likely have to pay an extra fee for D2D service on top of their standard monthly charge. This could spark political backlash from rural representatives regarding legal mandates for "reasonably comparable" pricing and services. 4. Impact on Federal Funding The 5G Fund for Rural America: The FCC's Universal Service Fund (USF) program designed to improve rural wireless connectivity has faced severe delays. The emergence of this JV calls into question whether the fund remains necessary, and if so, how it should be restructured. Antitrust & Regulatory Risks Bottom Line on Federal Scrutiny: New Street Research believes the odds favor the Department of Justice (DOJ) declining to challenge the deal. The Antitrust Concern: Unlike historical cable industry JVs, the Big Three directly compete against one another in both product and geographic markets. The JV technically reduces competition for mobile services in unserved rural sectors. The Efficiency Defense: The carriers will argue the JV is a highly efficient way to bring coverage to areas they otherwise would never have built out. Furthermore, collaborating with a satellite provider like AST increases competition in a satellite market currently dominated by SpaceX/Starlink. Policymakers favor having multiple viable satellite providers, which acts as a strong counter-argument to antitrust concerns. The SpaceX Caveat: If SpaceX/Musk uses political influence to push for a serious investigation, the DOJ may pivot to a more rigorous review. State Attorneys General: While federal clearance is likely, state AGs may investigate or challenge the JV over concerns that rural residents will pay higher rates than urban residents. However, New Street expects state AGs will use the threat of litigation to negotiate lower costs for rural customers rather than block the deal entirely.