

Doris Johnson
764 posts










A U.S. government shutdown looks increasingly likely: Prediction markets now put the odds at 82% for a shutdown beginning October 1st, in line with Goldman’s Sachs warning. There’s one last chance for a deal when the Senate returns Sept 29, but passage of the House extension is considered unlikely. If a shutdown begins, duration is key. Each week could shave 15bps off GDP growth in the quarter, with a rebound the following quarter. A 3-week shutdown = 45bps hit. On of the biggest impacts: data delays. Both NFP and CPI would likely be pushed back, just like in 2013, when jobs data was released 5 days after government reopened, and the following release was also delayed. Markets are watching closely, this could disrupt key economic signals right when the Fed is weighing cuts.









🚨🔴 Liverpool will pay €35m fee for Jeremie Frimpong in three annual installments as part of the agreement with Bayer Leverkusen.


