REMAMETEO 🌸🌸🌤️🌤️

📌 Mañana @AEMET_Esp activa avisos amarillos 🟨por #lluvias ☔️y #tormentas ⚡️ en toda la provincia de #Huelva y en comarcas de #Sevilla y #Cádiz Extrema la #precaución

🌡️🔻📉End of May 2-M temperatures Outlook: Another ( similar ) period of relatively mild conditions-potentially accompanied by cooler nighttime temperatures-may develop between 27 May and 4 June across parts of Western Europe, the Iberian Peninsula, as well as portions of the Caucasus, Anatolia and the Levant countries . These temperature anomalies appear to be linked to non-stationary Rossby wave activity, which promotes transient troughing patterns, enhanced cloud cover, and reduced daytime heating. The increased cloudiness, combined with periodic advection of cooler air masses, is likely to suppress maximum temperatures, while clearer intervals and radiative processes at night may allow for locally cooler minima. Overall, this reflects a dynamic and mobile synoptic regime, rather than a persistent blocking pattern, with variability in temperature driven by wave propagation rather than stationary forcing. @Statsiticizer

𝙀𝙡 ⬆️ 𝙨𝙚 𝙫𝙞𝙨𝙩𝙚 𝙙𝙚 𝙜𝙖𝙡𝙖 🌧️⛈️🌧️ ▪️Por fin llegan las ☔️☔️☔️ al tercio ⬆️ peninsular ▪️Mañana ☔️ en el ↘️ ▪️Recordar que esto será el aperitivo, el 🚂 esta en marcha 😍 ▪️ 𝙈𝙖𝙮𝙤 🏆 Animación 📽️🎼 𝙄𝘾𝙊𝙉-𝙀𝙐 ☔️ acumulada 120⌚️

🌪️📊📡Atlantic & Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook , Summer and Autumn 2026- (Analog-Based) #North_America #hurricanes. Much of the current narrative pointing to a weak 2026 hurricane season is driven by social media hype around a “super El Niño,” but this appears temporally misaligned. The available signals suggest a later ENSO peak toward December, not during the core summer months when Atlantic activity is most affected . The outlook here is based on a 32-analog ensemble (1860–2025) used to reconstruct 500 hPa patterns, derived from a multivariable statistical framework that integrates multiple sources of climate forcing, offering a more grounded perspective beyond simplified ENSO assumptions. The large-scale analog signal continues to support a near-normal to slightly above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, despite ongoing narratives of suppression due to a potential El Niño. Key driver: the expected ENSO peak is late (Dec–Jan) → meaning limited shear impact during the core season (Aug–Sep). Monthly Evolution (Atlantic & NPA context) July NPA: modest troughing, transitional flow MDR: gradually organizing Storm zones: Caribbean, W. Atlantic → Early-stage activity, not yet dominant August NPA: deeper trough into W. North America → reduced Atlantic shear windows MDR: ridge strengthening, improving wave propagation Storm zones: MDR → Caribbean → Bahamas → Clear ramp-up phase September (Peak) NPA: structured waveguide, balanced ridge–trough pattern MDR: fully active, low shear pockets Storm zones: Cape Verde → long-track hurricanes → W. Atlantic re-curvature → ACE peak aligns with climatology October NPA: increased trough penetration southward MDR: weakening, shift westward Storm zones: Caribbean, Gulf, W. Atlantic → Higher land-interaction & hybrid systems November NPA: trough-dominated regime MDR: suppressed, activity contracts Storm zones: Western Caribbean focus → Late-season residual activity Pacific (Brief) Eastern Pacific likely near-normal to slightly active early, with activity modulated by evolving ENSO structure Gradual shift in activity distribution as the season progresses, with less coherent suppression signal than typically assumed 🎯The Punch line : The synoptic evolution + ACE analogs closely match climatology, particularly the September peak. There is no strong signal for a suppressed Atlantic season at this stage. The expected ACE indices sit near the climatological average expected for the like seasons ( neither much less nor much more ) . If El Niño develops, its main atmospheric imprint is likely delayed into late 2026 and early 2027, not during peak hurricane months. ❗️The October and November expected 500 hpa synoptic maps and storm track detailed monthly interpretation are added in the comments. Other forecasts for the atlantic region had also been post in the comments-from the last week. Warmest Regards, Statistical Analog Modelling & Downscaling By Mr. M @Statisticizer. / hodhodata.com , Irbid -Jordan. ___________________ #AtlanticHurricaneSeason #HurricaneSeason2026 #TropicalCyclones #ACEIndex #ENSO #ElNino #ClimateSignals #NorthPacific #MDR #WeatherPatterns #HurricaneForecast #LongRangeForecast #ClimateAnalysis #EarlyWarning #DisasterPreparedness

🚨#HeadsUp The latest weekly ECMWF outlook is now indicating a clear signal for above-average precipitation across the Iberian Peninsula and parts of North Africa during Next Month=May . This development aligns closely with the earlier statistical analog-based ENS projections, which had already highlighted an elevated risk of torrential rainfall over Iberia during this period. It is notable that deterministic models are beginning to converge toward a wetter regime that was previously identified through probabilistic analog methods, reinforcing confidence in a potentially active and high-impact rainfall phase ahead for several parts of Iberian peninsula-see the comments for weekly identified flood risk hot spot zones during next month ( May) . 😘 @MeteoredES

⚡️🌍 #Iberia #NorthAfrica | Early Signal: Summer Rainfall Persistence & Flood Risk Outlook (May–August). A consistent analog-based rainfall signal is emerging across northern Iberia during summer 2026, with notable persistence from May through August, supported by multi-month composites and seasonal aggregation (May–July). 📊 What the signal shows 🔵 Persistent wet core: Northern Spain (Cantabrian range / Ebro-adjacent zones) shows a recurrent rainfall anomaly center across all months. 🟣 Deep purple anomalies: These indicate high-end rainfall departures, suggestive of: Repeated convective episodes Potential mesoscale clustering Elevated probability of extreme precipitation events 🔄 Spatial evolution through summer: May → June: Core consolidates over north-central Spain July: Tight, intense anomaly persists August: Expansion northeastward into southern France and adjacent regions. 🌐 Secondary extensions: Western Iberia (Portugal) intermittently affected Southern France increasingly involved mid–late summer ⚠️ Interpretation: This is not a transient signal. It reflects a structured seasonal imprint, likely tied to: Recurrent upper-level trough positioning / cut-off lows Enhanced moisture recycling and Atlantic inflow Possible interaction with AAM / ENSO-modulated circulation states 👉 The month-to-month persistence significantly increases the risk of: Soil saturation accumulation River basin stress Flash flood potential during convective peaks 🚨 Early Warning Perspective If this signal verifies: Northern Spain = primary Floods hotspot France (southwest) = secondary expansion zone ( June & August) Risk window may initiate early (May) and persist into late summer This raises concern for: Ebro basin Cantabrian rivers Cross-border hydrological response into SW France 🧠 Methodology (brief) Multi-analog ensemble (season-matching years) NCEP/NCAR reanalysis composites 1991–2020 climatological baseline anomalies Spatial-temporal consistency filtering across months 📌 Bottom line A rare level of persistence in rainfall anomalies is being flagged across Iberia. Not just isolated events—but a seasonal tendency toward repeated wet episodes, with localized extremes. Further model alignment will determine magnitude—but the signal is already coherent enough to monitor closely. During summer I will be posting 2-weekly outlooks for hot spots that may emerge temportally within months. Kindly share ♻️ and mention people who may be concerned. Early warning saves lives and property. Statistical Analog Modelling & Downscaling By Mr. M @Statisticizer / hodhodata.com .

Para poder observar el eclipse total del próximo 12 de agosto, no solo tienes que estar en la franja de totalidad, tienes que poder ver el Sol sobre el horizonte. Puedes comprobar si eso es posible en tu localidad haciendo una prueba en los próximos días. Abajo lo explicamos.

URGENTE Imágenes impresionantes de la destrucción que puede ocasionar un terremoto 7.4 en la escala de Richter en Japón 😱😱😱👇🏼👇🏼👇🏼👇🏼⚠️

Después del terremoto de Japón de hoy, de magnitud 7,5, se han formado olas más virulentas de lo normal, pero el tsunami no ha llegado a causar grandes destrozos. Las autoridades han avisado a la población para que se alejase de las zonas costeras.

Tal vez esta sea la mejor imagen de la Luna y la más detallada que han captado. Esto se debe a que son 1000 fotogramas apilados usando una Nikon Z8 y un telescopio Takahashi TSA-120, produciendo una impresionante obra maestra de 40 MP.

🌡️🤨 El calorazo de la semana que viene 🟰 la noticia con más éxito en las últimas horas en Meteored.  Este domingo, el modelo europeo apuesta todo al rojo 🔴 en su previsión para los próximos 7 días, con registros hasta 4 ºC por encima del promedio. 👕

🌧️ Media España peninsular con lluvias y acumulados de hasta 40 l/m2: la apuesta del modelo europeo para el inicio de la próxima semana. 🗞️ Infórmate: tiempo.com/noticias/predi…

Seguimos con tiempo despejado y primaveral, hoy prácticamente sin nubes.

Este año, las aguarrillas de abril parece que no desbordarán el barril.

Impresionante

Cuando no hay incidencia del tiempo....lo hay de otra forma, vaya #DomingodeRamos #SSantaSevilla

"Welcome to Spring", they said on Friday. Hmm, wait a sec.... Stay tuned!

Former Storm #Samuel gradually transformed into what can likely be classified as a “medicane” sometime between yesterday and this morning. The system made landfall on the Libyan coast not long ago and is likely producing dangerous flooding in the dry terrain. It’s a small but highly impressive storm, especially because of the eye-like feature which is commonly seen in hurricanes.

4.5 earthquake just moments ago in the Strait of Gibraltar, we already have reports of it being felt.

Un médicane évolue au large de la Libye depuis plusieurs heures. On distingue nettement l'enroulement de celle ci via les images satellites Met12. Nous avons mis en place un zoom temporaire avec la meilleure résolution disponible pour suivre son déplacement depuis hier : ⤵️ meteociel.fr/observations-m…