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Astro (John of St. Thomas's Top Guy)
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Astro (John of St. Thomas's Top Guy)
@Thomisticae
Roman Catholic. Strict Observance Thomist. Kabab Enjoyer. “Cognitio enim Trinitatis in unitate est fructus et finis totius vitae nostrae.” D. Thomae Aquinatis
Entrou em Kasım 2021
414 Seguindo8K Seguidores

@irumyuui1 Reformist-Conservative fight was not like traditionalist vs. V2 Loyalists where the former preceded the latter. Both shaped from early on, interpreting the Islamic revolution in different ways, while upholding the basic principles.
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@irumyuui1 Khatami is kinda old, so his successor is Hasan Rouhani, a very skilled—most would go for the most skilled among all in Iran—Reformist politician. If you listen to his recordings, you'll understand why Reformists believe what they believe.
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@irumyuui1 In my opinion, Iran has clearly won one thing: the media war. They now have more supporters outside Iran than ever.
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@irumyuui1 Because they don't need explicit supporters, but only that those who oppose them oppose Trump and Netanyahu at the same time.
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>Gets bombed on a daily basis by Iran (including today)
>Doesn't do anything except crying about it
>Claims victory
Congrats bro
سلـطان@sultanwho
UAE DOMINATED AND WON THIS WAR
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@irumyuui1 A month into war: "Oh actually, Trump and IRGC have teamed up to destroy Iran".
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@irumyuui1 A famous example is Iran International satellite tv. They asked people to get ready for celebration and that everything was going to end in a few days. A week later: "be patient, it'll take worse case scenario two weeks, Islamic Regime has got nothing left".
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@irumyuui1 I'll check it out, thanks. Also, I should tell you about the war and especially the first day where I was at the military base air raid siren went off, it was such a crazy experience, a few minutes later, two bombs dropped next to us. It was hell of a day.
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@Thomisticae He definitely realized he skrewed up. With Trump ofc you have to either ignore what he says or read extremely closely in-between the lines.
This article+the statement of Joe Kent all but confirms this: nytimes.com/2026/03/22/us/…
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@irumyuui1 Do you think Trump himself has realized that he's screwed up? Does he actually believe that he has achieved his objectives?
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Israel is fucking up negotiations (like when they targeted the foreign minister, or what they just did today) and the international community isn't doing anything to stop them. A lot of analysts think that Israel is trying to balkanize Iran by supporting the Kurds, Arabs, and Azeris, attack more civilian infrastructure to cause as much chaos as possible, and devolve it into Syria. My analysis of what has happened so far:
Israel and Iran both have extremely high resolve and high absolute cost of war, the U.S. has low resolve and low absolute cost of war, the gulf states have high absolute cost of war and low resolve, the Iranian proxies have high resolve and absolute cost of war, and the cost of war for all sides is just increasing the longer the war goes on. The expected outcome Israel shifted from "regime change" to "balkanization" and once they give up on balkanization it will be unsure what their plan will be, and with the U.S. the expected outcome also has heavily decreased (basically, it is returning back to what it was in the negotiations at Geneva). The Iranian expected outcome has either not changed at all or barely changed, and the only hint that it has gone down is that they momentarily went from "we only accept a total end" to "we will accept a temporary ceasefire so negotiations for an end to the war can take place." In order for the war to end, a settlement needs to be reached such the expected outcomes of war for both sides is such that there actually is a bargaining range for a settlement to take place. Although we have seen that the Israeli/American side has gotten less optimistic about the outcome of the war, that hasn't put Israel within bargaining range even though it (allegedly) had for the U.S. and Iran yet, but hopefully it does. Also... the fact that Israel wasn't even included in the negotiations basically tells you everything. Trump didn't even consider it worth time to ask Israel if the terms were acceptable.
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