TradingLessons ®

@unusual_whales Haha, love it

JUST IN: The Trump administration has put a 10% tariff on the Heard Island and McDonald which has a population of 0 people and is inhabited only by penguins, per NYP

@RampCapitalLLC Rate cut

Please respond ONLY if you are a tariffs expert. What’s the next move here?

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 US Senate votes to terminate President Trump's tariffs on Canada.

Lesson of the Day: Is Not Retaliating the Smartest Move? Economically? ✅ Yes — in most cases. No retaliation = less uncertainty = stronger stock and bond markets. ① Exports to Country A Decrease Let’s say Country A used to export $100B/year to Country B. With a 25% tariff, buyers in Country B now pay $125B for the same goods. Result? Many buyers from Country B cut orders, switch suppliers, or negotiate lower prices. 📉 Country A may lose ~15–25% of that trade volume, depending on price elasticity. → New export value: ~$75B–85B → That’s a $15–25B hit to exporters BUT: that loss only hits part of your economy — exporters tied to that country. ② Country A Still Get Cheap Imports : Because Country A didn’t retaliate, imports from Country B (or others) come in untaxed. →Consumers still get low prices → Businesses that rely on foreign parts/supplies keep costs down Inflation stays lower ③ Consumers save more than exporters lose: Let’s estimate: Exporter pain: ~$20B in lost sales Consumer + business gain from avoiding tariffs: Often larger For example, if a 25% tariff was imposed on $120B in imports, consumers would’ve paid ~$30B more annually. By not retaliating, you saved your economy more than you lost. ④ Markets Stay Calmer → Global investors reward countries that: → Show stability → Avoid trade wars → Protect consumer purchasing power

@zerohedge Smart move

*NZ'S MCCLAY: WE WON'T BE LOOKING TO RETALIATE AGAINST US

Gold Breaks the Ceiling: › Spot gold just hit $3,200 for the first time ever — a new all-time high. › Up over 18% this quarter, marking its strongest run since the '80s. Translation: When in doubt, go for the glitter. #GOLD #LiberationDay #tariffs #Trump #liberationday2025 $GLD

@Barchart Finally, a bear market with benefits 😀

Orange Juice Collapse 🍊: OJ has now fallen 46% since its December all-time high and traded red in 15 of the last 17 days 📉 Mimosas back on the board!

@zerohedge Volatility’s here

This is a retail liquidation. Zero institutions selling right now Goldman mid-day recap: "Asset managers continue to “aggressively watch” and HFs are very active again degrossing (HF activity is a 9 out of 10 on our trading desk this AM).  In TMT: We saw HFs cut risk in Megacap early (big supply AMZN, META, GOOG etc), felt like risk mgmt exercise. LO community very quiet this AM, seems like spooked by price action and "aggressively watching"

Lesson of the Day: Bonds Are Talking—Are You Listening? ① Treasury yields drop to new 2025 lows as consumer confidence hits its weakest level since June. Why it matters: Lower yields signal slower growth expectations—traders now fully expect two Fed rate cuts this year. ② Stocks & bonds move together—when yields fall, stocks often rally (unless recession fears take over). ③ Key level to watch: 10-year Treasury yield at 4.25%—a break lower could trigger more bond buying and shift market sentiment. ④ Yield curve inversion alert: Historically a recession warning, but this market has ignored red flags before. Takeaway: If you trade stocks, you need to watch bonds. Yields drive risk appetite, inflation bets, and Fed moves. Ignore them at your own risk. #TradingLessons #BONDS #InterestRates #Fed #Markets #investing #StockMarket #StockMarketNews

@Stranger_T_Fic @zerohedge I believe additional tariffs on cars

@zerohedge What? What is he trying to say?

*TRUMP: CARS WILL BE OVER ABOVE THIS AND COMING SHORTLY

@investor_buzz x.com/TradingLesson/…

PPI Check-In: ① Wholesale Prices Up → PPI rose 0.4% (vs. 0.3% est.), but market reaction was mild—stocks ticked higher, yields dipped. ② Core PPI In Line → Ex-food & energy, prices rose 0.3%, matching forecasts. Healthcare & airfare costs declined, easing some concerns. ③ Rate Cut Hopes Pushed Back? → Futures now see the Fed on hold until October as inflation remains above the 2% goal. ④ Eggflation Strikes Again → Egg prices soared 44% in January, up 186% YoY as avian flu disrupts supply. Diesel up 10.4%, adding pressure. ⑤ PCE Watch → The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge (PCE) drops later this month. Early estimates suggest a cooling trend, but not enough for immediate cuts. #Markets #Inflation #PPI #Stocks #InterestRates #Economy #StocksToWatch #StocksToTrade

Lesson of the day: What Is PPI & Why It Matters for Traders? #PPI (Producer Price Index) tracks wholesale inflation—what businesses pay before prices reach consumers. ① Inflation Clue → Rising PPI can signal future CPI increases. ② Fed Watch → Higher PPI = Rate hike fears. Lower PPI = Easing pressures. ③ Market Impact → Bonds, stocks, and commodities react based on inflation expectations. ④ Not the Only Metric → The Fed prefers PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) for policy moves. #TradingLessons #Inflation #PPI #Markets #RateHikes

Why Is Everything Down—Including the $VIX? ① Controlled Pullback › No panic selling, just steady de-risking—hedging demand stays low. ② Hedges Already in Place › If traders were positioned defensively ahead of time, there’s no rush for protection now. ③ Dealer Positioning at Play › Market makers absorbing flows, long puts decaying—keeping volatility suppressed. ④ Policy Over Panic › If this move is driven by macro factors (Fed, tariffs) rather than a shock event, volatility remains contained. ⑤ No New Surprises › If traders priced in risk ahead of key events, there’s no fresh volatility bid—for now. ⚠️ Complacency can be costly. When volatility stays quiet for too long, it tends to return with a bang. #MarketMoves #VIX #VolatilityCheck #TradingSignals #RiskManagement #StocksToWatch

@Barchart Tightening wallets

Auto Loan Delinquency Rate hits highest level in 14 years 🚨

@WatcherGuru Not yet...time will come

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 President Trump says interest rates should be lowered.

@FarhadNawab @WatcherGuru Lower rates = Cheaper borrowing → more spending and investing. More demand = Higher prices → inflation rises.

@WatcherGuru Interesting take; lower rates could really stir up economic activity!

@NYSE @ICE_Markets @Reddit Real-time conversations for market insights, interesting

Spotted: @ICE_Markets & @Reddit collab ⤵️ $RDDT

@KevRGordon no surprise

Supercore CPI jumped by 0.76% m/m in January ... that's the largest increase in a year

@zerohedge @federalreserve @neelkashkari Inflation isn’t just a rate-cut story, there are lots of variables at play.

Dear @federalreserve (and @neelkashkari). Maybe that 0.5% jumbo rate cut in September wasn't the best idea?

@WatcherGuru No surprise

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 US inflation rises to 3%, higher than expectations.