Matt Onderlinde

Added a new section to Weathernerds to host demo videos and limited case studies: weathernerds.org/videos/ The "Severe Storms" video discusses tomorrow's forecast: youtube.com/watch?v=c-JO90… I'll build out the video page over the coming weeks. Be safe tomorrow! #Severe #wxtwitter

@CC_StormWatch Jackson NWS forecast reasonably in line with the HRRR FRAM guidance 😬

While I don't usually post single model runs - and this is an outlier - God help us if this is what happens (HRRR). The green areas would be devastating to potentially catastrophic impacts.

Indeed. x.com/Weathernerds/s…

I-94 (or 80/90) around the bottom of Lake Michigan will be a poor choice Sunday night...

My heart goes out to Jamaica. May God protect them and get them through this. 🙏

@JaydonShawwx the HFBI tracker jumps from Octave to the disturbance NHC currently marks as 60%, which also develops in the outer domain of the Octave run. Why it rockets all the way to cat5 in the HFBI output is still odd tho... 🤔

HFBI needs to chill 🥀

The layer steering plots on Weathernerds show the evolution of the flow around Imelda nicely. If it hadn’t been for Humberto carving out a path through the upstream ridge, the flow likely would’ve stayed SSErly over Imelda and led to poorer outcomes for the US East Coast.

It’s fixed. Thanks!

@ECMWF I'm getting "Access denied: 530" for wmo:essential requests at ftp://diss.ecmwf.int/ ( or in the browser at essential.ecmwf.int ) Has the login info changed?

@tropicalupdate 🙂

The AI models have been real inconsistent IMO this year. Ensembles especially. I haven't been sharing because. Current Pacific storm Lorena here. Google AI going completely opposite than NHC. If it fails... Hmmmmmm. What do you think of these AI models? Or AI in general. spaghettimodels.com

@stormchaserjs @AndyHazelton A couple of points for clarity: GenCast does a bias correction on the TC intensity forecasts. FNV3 actually computes its TC intensity forecasts with AI in a separate step from the model fields. ie, it’s not just a tracker being run on the output fields.

@AndyHazelton @Weathernerds The AI models from what I see are low resolution like the euro AI is 31 km.

Compelling evidence of GDM’s utility continues to mount. Their ensembles recently added to Weathernerds: weathernerds.org/models/fnv3.ht…

@AndyHazelton Good question. I've started investigating that a time or two but never dove deep enough to figure it out.

@Weathernerds Also does the Canadian ensemble have tracks?

Alright, Google Deep Mind tracks are live. Ingest code is still pretty raw so bear with me if there are issues. Also, I switched to an "Ensembles" drop menu now. Thanks to the GDM team for their phenomenal work!!!

@AndyHazelton FNV3 is their latest experimental version that includes the intensity "correction"

@Weathernerds GENC is the new one with intensity correction?

@tom_r_andersson @FerranAlet My Pleasure!!! The work you guys are doing is absolutely phenomenal! Excited to see where it goes from here...

@Weathernerds Awesome, thanks for integrating Weathernerds with our cyclone track data, Matt! cc @FerranAlet

Coming soon (probably tomorrow) to Weathernerds: Google Deep Mind AI track forecasts (FNV3 & GenCast). These are proving to be pretty useful for genesis, track, and even intensity forecasting.

@stormchaserjs Not yet 🙂 Once they start providing the raw tracker output it will be added. I don’t have the compute resources to run the tracker myself on that ensemble set 🙁

@Weathernerds Can the euro AI ensembles also be added?

@AndyHazelton Ugh, yeah. One of these years is going to be “our year”. 😬

@Weathernerds Just gotta play another round of hurricane dodgeball to get there 😬

Stalling front across the Florida Peninsula today, bringing some much-needed rain. The cool down won't be very long-lived, but at least it's something. We'll see how much of the rain is able to hold on as the system tries to slide south today.

@lbucci45 Quality “dad commentary…”

Accident westbound on 595 near Flamingo is a fuel tanker on fire. We could feel the heat of the fire inside our van! #Broward #Davie #Sunrise