Avery

So many thanks to @josh_metcalf for compiling this data so quickly and getting it on DRA. I know from experience how maddening it is to collect CA election data (especially at this pace!!) Please give him all the love

Prop 50 performed exceptionally well in SoCal, in many precincts (especially in Riverside County and the SB high desert) it achieved margins that no other dem candidate has approached previously

@BanUnsweetTea masterful gambit

I’m not even trying to be funny but there was a giant increase in people’s electric bills 30 days prior to early voting and Republicans control the whole Public Service Commission. TBH it’s pretty insane that they did that

@DuckworthStan don't get used to it lol

@averyhatestwt Omg jumpscare I haven’t seen you on my TL in a while!

I know I'm late on this, but what exactly happened in Georgia? Did republicans not know that there was an election?

remember to vote, gals

@TylerDinucci @admcrlsn @kkondik @JMilesColeman @JacobRubashkin @jamesd0wns @VanceUlrich @lxeagle17 @arcuve Gray is also one of the stronger candidates that CA Dems have, if you expect him to win Merced County (which is quite likely) then there's not really any path for a Republican win next year.

Has anyone reputable released updated House ratings for California based on the proposed map?

@admcrlsn @kkondik @JMilesColeman @JacobRubashkin @jamesd0wns @VanceUlrich @lxeagle17 @arcuve something like this

@kkondik @JMilesColeman @JacobRubashkin @jamesd0wns @VanceUlrich @averyhatestwt @lxeagle17 @arcuve

@TheNovaAqua1 From this tweet or you can download the shapefile from here aelc.assembly.ca.gov/proposed-congr… x.com/rpyers/status/…

@averyhatestwt do you have a full map of all the districts in detail?

Some notable changes for dem incumbents around LA on the new CA map (current lines in black) 27 (Whitesides): Much bluer now, hard to see him losing 32 (Sherman): Trades parts of SFV for all of Simi Valley, primary protection? 26 (Brownley) is fairly blue either way.

38 (New): Assuming Sanchez runs in 41, new 38 is mostly in the SGV and not east LA 41 (Sanchez): This is likely the "new district" that was talked about, however it is about half Sanchez' current district 42 (Garcia): Now mostly white, Dem base entirely in Long Beach, pretty safe

@SageOfTime1 @EKYDemocrat @ArianaSenator @ADincgor @Planetaire27 @Shane_maps @nikicaga @politicaphile @chrispy_kreeme @ElpisActual @zach_from_ohio @julseptx @fprosk @FreudenthalStan @adriaeln @LilyArtemisTO @nickyphorus117 @TadeuszMrozek2 @AvgTXDem can you stop tagging me in these

@EKYDemocrat @ArianaSenator @averyhatestwt @ADincgor @Planetaire27  @Shane_maps @nikicaga @politicaphile @chrispy_kreeme @ElpisActual @zach_from_ohio @julseptx @fprosk @FreudenthalStan @adriaeln @LilyArtemisTO @nickyphorus117 @TadeuszMrozek2 @AvgTXDem

The 2012 PA-12th Democratic Primary, a contest between two incumbent Democrats saw Rep. Mark Critz of Cambria County narrowly upset Rep. Jason Altmire of Beaver County—securing the nomination for a seat that was made more republican in the 2012 Redistricting cycle.

@brownsonjacob2 And semi-related: between May 4 and May 27th they were 11-11 and since June 26 they're 8-8

@brownsonjacob2 excluding the 8-0 start, 4x (April 5, April 16, April 22, and April 27)

Wondering where the Dodgers would be on this list if they didn’t win a bajillion games at the start of the season

@exist_you Neither? I mean exactly what I said

@averyhatestwt I am not sure whether you said that to be snarky or to say "I think it'll be worse for Republicans than this"

As someone who's no longer active in this space, looking in and seeing the blanket statements people make on here about elections that are two+ years away is just absurd. You don't know that Brian Kemp will beat Jon Ossoff, that is literally unknowable, why are you saying that.

@exist_you I do not know or particularly care at this point

@averyhatestwt Is D+4 one of the lower end environment?

@WhisperBox7 heathen

@averyhatestwt where is the "i don't use conditioner" option

You usually run out of ___ before ___