tom vacher

@jam_croissant Cem, a reality adjacent prediction: first, policy makers reaction function will constrain yields. Every equities owner, "owns" the bonds too and every corporate is corelated to their & US govts' bonds. Any catastrophe will be purchasing power decimation not yields.

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@EPBResearch Beautiful. Well done. You have gifts in perspicacity and communication. Long may they be on display.

Almost three years ago, I was diagnosed with Stage 4 liver cancer. After ~50 rounds of chemotherapy, immunotherapy, radiation, and a life-saving liver transplant, I am cancer-free. This is my story: I was 12 years old when I first heard the words "Fibrolamellar carcinoma", a rare and aggressive liver cancer that primarily affects children, teenagers, and young adults. It is said that FLC occurs in about 1 in 5 million people. We caught it early, at Stage 1, and surgeons were able to remove the tumor. For the next 10 years, I was monitored closely through bloodwork, CT scans, and MRIs, and I showed no evidence of disease. Life went on the way you hope it does after a childhood cancer. I genuinely believed it was behind me. Then, in November 2023, 18 years after my original diagnosis, sudden and severe abdominal pain sent me to the emergency room. What we discovered changed my life and the lives of everyone around me forever. The cancer had come back, and this time, aggressively. Stage 4. Multiple tumors throughout my liver and lymph nodes, and potentially my pancreas. Surgery was ruled out completely. I moved through clinical trials while the disease continued to progress. The conversations with my doctors were not optimistic. "There's not much we can do." "We're looking to extend your survivability." These were the worst of moments. I was newly married, with life turned upside down and options narrowing. It really felt like there was no hope. That's when my brother found FibroFighters - a patient advocacy and education foundation for those impacted by FLC. From the moment my family connected with Tom Stockwell and Dr. Paul Kent, the organization's medical director and one of the world's leading experts on Fibrolamellar, everything started to change. They gave us direction, a plan, and a sense of possibility we had lost. In no uncertain terms, I am alive today because of them. Over the next 18 months, I underwent nearly 50 rounds of chemotherapy, immunotherapy, and radiation. Remarkably, the tumors began to shrink. In October 2025, almost two years after the night I walked into that emergency room, I received news that was originally impossible: I was eligible for a liver transplant. My sister-in-law, Luisa, stepped forward as my donor, an act of love and courage so profound that I am still, every single day, searching for words large enough to hold it. In the same operation, surgeons performed a Liver Transplant and a Whipple procedure, a one-of-a-kind surgery. I sit here today, seven months later, with no evidence of disease. When you're discharged from the transplant floor of the hospital, you ring a bell. There's a plaque next to it. It says: - I ring it once for myself, to commemorate my journey so far and to reflect on this moment. - I ring it again for those who have supported me and been by my side. - I ring it once more to honor my donor, who has given me a second chance. - I ring it lastly to encourage all of those who are still waiting on the list. This post is my attempt to honor the fourth ring, to help and encourage those still in need. I'm raising money for FibroFighters, the foundation that saved my life. They do extraordinary work for a disease that is still desperately misunderstood, misdiagnosed, and mistreated. Your support helps them do the same for the patients and families going through what I went through two years ago. secure.givelively.org/donate/fibrofi… If you can give, please consider giving. If you can't, please share my story. Either one helps someone still in their fight. Most importantly, to all those impacted by Fibrolamellar, there is reason to be hopeful. I am proof. *** #fibrolamellar #FLC

@mikesimonsen Sorry it takes so long but we punters appreciate your cogent succinctity.

It takes me easily an hour to record a 1 minute reel. I hate intagram. LOL

@BurggrabenH It is interesting how all shades of the spectrum offer Phillips as justification for their own, & condemnation of others' faulty perspectives. Delphinic ambiguity in the ear of the beholder. Rather, each side latches on to a subset of facts to engage in vexacious whataboutism.

Why do so many people seem incapable or unwilling to distinguish truth from lies anymore?

@DannyDayan5 @BlackScholesMan Ask the question, how does Iran guarantee that America, Israel or anyone else never attempts to attack again? With that answer you narrow the end game plays as well, likely to just one.

@BlackScholesMan I don’t think they even have a government nor actors to make a deal with. There’s no organization anymore

Trump has tried the TACO route. It failed. You can’t paper a physical issue. So he’s trapped. Iran is not negotiating, and will not surrender. His only option left is to go scorched earth, whatever that means to him, and violently wrap this up quickly.

@shortbus_ace House next to a grave yard. Pretty easy to locate. Consequences.

what a total piece of shit that woman is

@MrEwanMorrison @JohnOleske To his point about introspection & great men : Marcus Aurelius.

Marc Andreessen raises a serious point. "Tech optimists" like himself may have different brains from the rest of us. Wired for optimism bias & lacking the capacity for interior reflection. If this is the case then why should we listen to these people or let them shape our lives?

@jamiedupree @RichardRubinDC @marthagimbel I've used a nuanced version where the dollar, the habitual drunk loses his license and now has to pay up for taxis or a chauffeur.

Here you go @RichardRubinDC - is that who I think it is in the background, shaking his head at the @marthagimbel analogy?

@conksresearch Name all the hoes: European Commission & others

@IpswichTown @ifxpayments Good to see Ipswich & Washington DC in same picture - acknowledged centers of power in their respective countries

International kick-off times. 🌍 @ifxpayments

@UncleJo46902375 @JamesSurowiecki @monkieboy99 This is useful. To take the 59 shootings over 6 years as a point made, the counter point is 16 in the last 6 months according to this site.

@JamesSurowiecki @monkieboy99 Think he got his numbers from this but it's for 2015-21 so includes all of Trump 1. thetrace.org/2024/08/ice-ag…

ICE agents shot people during the Obama administration. ICE was involved in at least 59 shootings, resulting in 24 injuries and 23 deaths across 26 states The difference isn’t that it didn’t happen- it’s that it didn’t get the same national attention. Manufactured outrage.

@dylanmallman @donnelly_brent This Hutu Tutsi confection is a necessary distraction from economic inequality. Way older than the Nika riots under Justinian 1 over blue v green chariot teams. Divide & conquer.

We are living through a moment where a group of people do not just disagree, they do not even acknowledge a shared fundamental reality. There is no common frame of reference, no mutual set of facts from which discourse can even begin. They can watch the same video, from multiple angles, and walk away convinced they saw a completely different event. They exist inside a narrative so deeply entrenched that to question it, to even acknowledge a contradiction, is to commit some sort of ideological treason. This is a deliberate, conditioned immunity to contradiction. It is a cultivated resistance to evidence. They have developed a mind so thoroughly welded to its chosen reality that it will alter, discard, or fabricate whatever it must to maintain coherence. They can be shown, in real time, the unraveling of their worldview, and they will patch over the holes with fantasy rather than face any doubt whatsoever. Politics has turned knowledge itself into a partisan weapon. The expectation is no longer to seek truth, but to defend your team at all costs. There is a lingering obligation to have an opinion on everything, to be informed at all times, to adopt the correct stance. And so, they improvise. They adopt prefabricated opinions handed down by their faction. They fill in the gaps with instinctive loyalty rather than demonstrating any semblance of independent thought. The game is rigged, and they know it. Two parties, two choices, two sides that everyone is herded into, and neither is worth the loyalty demanded of them. But to acknowledge this would be to admit powerlessness, to admit that they are trapped in an illusion of choice. So they cope. They retroactively justify their allegiance by turning their side into something righteous, infallible, and necessary. The alternative is too terrifying. It is a coping mechanism turned mass psychosis. And it is escalating. When reality itself is dictated by allegiance, when loyalty outranks reason, when every fact must be bent into submission to fit the tribe’s chosen narrative, the outcome is inevitable: war. When factions exist in separate realities, they cannot coexist. They cannot negotiate, they cannot reason, they cannot even comprehend the other side as anything but a threat. This is irreconcilable. We cannot function like this. A society cannot sustain itself when its people are no longer individuals but ideological husks, possessed by abstractions, fighting battles for masters who do not even know their names. You are not your faction. You are not your party. You are not an extension of a collective mind. The moment you outsource your thinking, the moment you allow yourself to believe that your side must be right because the alternative is unbearable, you have ceased to be an individual. You have become another interchangeable pawn in a game that does not need you to think, only to obey. Wake up. This war for reality is not one you want to be drafted into.

@gordon_burnley @cov_t0 I agree, highlights showed COV were outstanding & only Walton's agility stopped the momentum tilting. That said, look how we fared in the PL.

@cov_t0 I don’t get mixed up with the banter/wind ups or just utter shite that people go on about , the facts are that Coventry have been first class , Ipswich had the lucky beaks against you , but you have to take them , we are not there yet but still very close to the top 2👍

@IpswichTown @ifxpayments folks, US clocks moved last Sunday, game will be 0600 in LA and 1000 in Wash DC. Unless you already know sthg we don't about the first half

Where are you watching from? 🌍 @ifxpayments

@SpencerHakimian Spencer you are becoming the very problem you complain about. The ambition for online engagement & influence suggests your hedge fund returns are insufficient. You eat your own reputation.

"A bounty on the heads of federal agents, $2,000 to kidnap, $10,000 to kill senior Border Patrol officials and senior ICE officials here in Chicago. Now, what happens between the kidnapping and the killing portion? That's something out of a third world country. Is this America?" x.com/EricLDaugh/sta…

@SpencerHakimian #Bringbackourgirls, 2014 Michelle Obama. Maher is wrong. And using the logic of the recently deceased popularist "if you're not protesting all comparable things everywhere, I'm invalidating your singular protest". If compliant then labeled a "globalist". Damned if u do/don't

Bill Maher: “I’m not a Christian, but they are systematically killing the Christians in Nigeria. They’ve killed over 100,000. They are literally attempting to wipe out the Christians of an entire country. Where are the kids protesting this?”

@SpencerHakimian Voltaire died in Paris in 1778 aged 84. Doubtful he would retain this view had he lived to 100.

Wise words.

@Econ_Parker Wonderful granularity, thank you.

The holiday timing combined with the extremely outsized surge in TX may be revised / unwound. Certainly worth keeping a close eye on in the coming weeks.

Well, well, well... After sitting on the backburner for some time, jobless claims are back in the headlines with the highest weekly print since the pandemic. Initial jobless claims jumped by 32k to 263k during the week ending Sept 6. Let's see what's going on in the 🧵

@mikesimonsen Mike, great chart. Is it possible it captures a surge in refi v sales/purchases & therefore possibly a sign of home equity monetization? Perhaps an alternative to the limits of a HELOC

This surprised me: The MBA Purchase Mortgage Application Index has been up big. Way bigger than home sales have been. Seems "wrong". The Altos weekly pending home sales counts are up just a bit YoY. Seems "right". But plotted together, the alignment is much clearer!

@VladTheInflator @junkbondinvest Yes. Unless there is another asset class where growth has overwhelmingly occurred within one economic cycle, where growth is primarily in private not public markets & the data set is selected to end just before an anticipated inflection point.

@junkbondinvest This may the dumbest fucking chart I've ever seen

“Can you turn the lights down? I want to show you something.”