HF Reflections

An old collection of threads. I’m running out of new things to say and this platform is very ephemeral, so figured I’d post / pin this as a somewhat dated but probably pretty good guide to my historical threads around time of fund launch.

I underestimated the benefit I derive from using this platform to think through problems - writing helps me process challenges and work through them in ways I didn’t appreciate. Will likely try a new thread this weekend on something I’ve been thinking through.

I'm launching a long/short fund in 3Q26. Strategy: low-net, concentrated, deep research. Hiring: Analyst (0-4 yrs experience). Why join: mentorship & excellent team Looking for: Passion for investing & critical thinking Email resume and/or pitch to nyhfrecruit@gmail.com

What are the best sources / substacks / other news sources you’ve found to track developments in ai and the associated disruptions, more from a leading edge perspective? Would appreciate both bullish and bearish viewpoints on ai adoption / disruption.

"It feels like an illogical leap to extrapolate from Claude Cowork Plugins, to this expectation that every company will hereby write and maintain a bespoke product to replace every layer of mission-critical enterprise software they have ever deployed." - JPM

At Avenir, we’ve followed the emerging bear cases on SaaS closely. This 46-page deck contains our reflections and research on the path ahead. We see opportunity and risk as SaaS companies vie with AI natives to be "systems of context." Link in replies, excited to discuss!

@secretlyaninja Can you DM me?

The presumptive dissident group for $KITW bid rapidly approaching blocking position. By my count, they are up to 17.12%. Assuming some % of the rest of the shareholders do not vote, blocking group is nearly at 25%. The group = Gumshoe, Samson Rock, GAMCO, Caisse, Trium, Candriam

I bought $KITW at ~250p after shares took a dive following FY25 guidance cut. At 250p, it's priced like a no-growth/melting 🧊 (9x forward P/E, 6x EBITDA). I think that's way too cheap/pessimistic. My latest investment from my fav fishing pond. 🇬🇧 (1/n) 🧵

What are some of the coolest ways you have incorporated LLMs / vibe coding into your investing process? (Research, position tracking, etc)

@ImpatientCap The ammount of mental effort most PMs put towards analything other than the next idea is often incompatible with sustained success.

@hfreflection "Business is really all about the people" is the oldest, most annoying, simplest, and most correct business advice. We get told it early and often in our careers by experienced folk, and then go through a predictable arc of dismissal through to evangelism of the same.

I’ve spent much of the last 3yrs trying to build a good HF. Now I get to spend the rest of my career trying not to mess it up, which I’d argue may be harder than building a fund in the first place. I stand by most these thoughts from before I left my prior firm. More to come.

Well I absolutely didn't anticipate my short post on Alex Silverstein's spin-off launch from P72 to go viral. To the 1,000+ followers I've picked up overnight and those fascinated by the process leading to my assessment of Alex, here's a link to my Odd Lots appearance last year.

I'm hiring for two roles, entry-level, Austin-based. Base pay $150k-$250K, bonus $50k-$200k. Raw talent over experience preferred. You will work directly with me. See open roles here: militiainv.com/careers

@waddledeecap @SafeCheapStocks I use virtual pa to assess analyst conviction, it’s not meant to be a portfolio they are managing / not meant to teach portfolio management skills. I also only let them invest in names they led up dilligence on which makes it hard to have more than 3-5 longs.

@hfreflection @SafeCheapStocks Like it. In that case wouldn’t be surprised but if tell analyst manage as if much higher capital and that sizing a position over 15-20% is not reasonable (unless major conviction and downside protection) in the main fund, may have their port approximate main book sizing.

REFLECTIONS: Managing Analysts Managing people is the most important job of a PM, but no one teaches you how to do that and there are so many bad models to learn from. A brief 🧵. In short, be the PM you wanted as an analyst. I have worked for 5 PMs in my career and managed 8 analysts. As with most things in life, I've tried to copy the behaviors that I witnessed that were helpful, and tried not to repeat the harmful ones. 1. Model the behaviors you want your analysts to emulate. • Analysts learn from PMs and will copy your good / bad habits 2. Learn the analysts strengths and weaknesses • No one is perfect - try to figure out where they are good and where they struggle 3. Where possible, try to improve the weaknesses. Where not, learn to adjust for them. • Some weaknesses can be improved on and some are structural. Fix the ones you can, learn to adjust for the ones you can’t, and figure out which weaknesses you can live with and which you can’t. 4. Where analyst is strong, trust them and get out of their way • If analyst is as good or better than you at something, you repeating it won’t add much value. Instead spend more time where they are weak. 5. Incentivize the behavior you want • People respond to incentivizes. Think about what behavior you want to encourage and incentivize it. Also think about perverse behaviors you may be incentivizing without realizing it. Especially true or p&l based comp structures IMO. 6. Make them feel like owners over time • People work harder / care more when they feel like they share in upside and help shape the firm 7. Make them manage someone • It’s hard, they will empathize with you better if they have to do it too. Easy to do with interns 8. Recognize and prevent toxic behaviors • p&l watching celebrating/rewarding outcome with bad process This thread takes substantially less time to write, but is faster read, let me know if you prefer this format (or not) and share any thoughts / observations you have (either as an analyst or PM).

Pretty sure all our analysts portfolios outperformed the real one this year, but they can take up to 33% positions and liquidity is no issue for them. They also can influence fund sizing based on their conviction, which I see in part from their portfolios - I think it’s a win/win.

@hfreflection @SafeCheapStocks Phantom portfolio is good. I like the idea, it gets funny then analyst portfolio starts outperforming main book. One of my old PMs didn’t give us any insight into sizing and it made conversations so difficult. Analysts should think about sizing as early as they can once they can.

@wwoodyyy0 A broader overarching piece is hire well especially with personality. Incentivizing right behavior helps but some people are toxic / create a mess around them and no level of smarts / talent offsets that.

@hfreflection Struggling to remember if this came from the video, but one thing I think you may have not totally touched on is also understanding the careerists and how managing someone overly absorbed in the politics of it is a separately difficult challenge to deal with

@waddledeecap @SafeCheapStocks We do a virtual PA that drives a relatively small ammount of comp and can be used as a helpful signal for how much analysts like ideas. But we have lots of limits on how much people can trade Sleeve would be way to distracting IMO especially for a younger analyst.

@SafeCheapStocks @hfreflection I forget if he said anything about how if you give analysts even a small sleeve that they’ll focus on that vs whole fund and not be collaborative? I have seen pros and cons on the sleeve idea, though differs between MMs and SMs

@stomping_llama I think it’s good for someone to try at least once, even if they don’t like it. I think it helps them understand one of the challenges of being a PM, and makes them for empathetic analysts

@hfreflection All great points. I'd argue 7 may not be necessary depending on analyst's experience. I'd already been there, done that in other industries, and analyst role appealed largely because I could add high value without managing others.

Going to try a different post format - will put a short thread together with higher level thoughts, with a detailed one to follow when I have more time to flesh it out. Will allow for a quicker surface read and more conversation / debate. First up later today - managing analysts