Safe&CheapStocks
236 posts
Safe&CheapStocks
@SafeCheapStocks
If you don't know who you are as an investor the market is an expensive place to find out.
Katılım Eylül 2025
309 Takip Edilen582 Takipçiler
@pmje73 I disagree. Some of the highest quality returns (large sample, not a factor, several cycles, returns makeup diversified) has come from absolute hermits. Not even one Google search hit on them.
Paul: in a pod, you said your PA is mostly RE, why given ur public equity trck record?
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100% agree with this. Best way to learn is sitting in a room with a few people bouncing around ideas; tearing apart financial statements, critiquing competitive positioning and debating the quality of management. AI will increase the effectiveness and cadence of those meetings. I have said this before but the best investments ideas come from the most talented rooms of people the same way the best entertainment content comes from the best writers rooms.
Alix Pasquet@alixpasquet
Analog training about to become the edge "I would have people on Wall Street learn the old fashioned way [without LLMs] for the first six or twelve months…I sound like an old man, but let’s walk into the room rather than run…I’m a believer in the tools but I also think it’s stunting the growth of this generation…it could lead to degradation in your 30s that you won’t be able to come back from. If you don’t know how to do anything, then you don’t know how to do anything, and competing on your raw smarts isn’t enough because everyone is smart."
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@jptissot1 Here is Pulak Prasad, highly successful investor, on one of his bigger losers in his career: "Within a few years of our investing, the company’s inventory and receivables started climbing steeply, a leading indicator of potential sales issues."
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@jptissot1 I think in the book Financial Shenanigans it was said that the leading indicator of fraud ahead was most often visible in working capital movements, especially receivables.
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Following Shelly´s Q4 results, Arauca Capital has fully exited Shelly Group $SLYG. We are no longer shareholders.
Some of the assumptions I held are no longer true *for me*. This is exclusively my process — I am sharing part of it here. I do not expect anyone to agree.
I remain a committed supporter of the company and a genuine admirer of what Dimitar built. The potential is still immense — provided the right environment is in place.
Disc: not a recommendation. Arauca Capital no longer holds Shelly shares.
Note: @ricardog_77, a former member of my team who has followed Shelly independently for years, published his own thread on the same topic and prompted me to accelerate mine. His views are his own. I recommend reading both.
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@AcquirerHQ Looked at them in 2016, remember c. 30-40% of FCF is capitalized R&D. Not sure if that is still so.
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Is 🇸🇪 Vitec Software $VITB really on an 11.7% TTM FCF Yield right now? 👀
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@AltayCapital Magic words here are "valves" then "Altay", in that order. Valves, in the industrial world, at the top of the food chain in terms of raw biz economics.
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@AltayCapital Owner thanks to u sir. Here my quick note on them: "SBB 1.1% apr 25, still not on TSE; Altay, profitable since 1979, overwhelming ms in valves for ships, profits linked to ships"
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@Larryjamieson_ he data they disclosed?
I think it was awful. Interesting all professional fund letters on the name and not one mentions the absurd concentration among brokers, like top 3 being 70% market.
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pretty diabolical $HEM.ST listings in Jan/Feb... April the real testing point
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@MikeFritzell I pitched on Substack Broadleaf 3 months ago. A 99.7% retention rate on 40k user base. Insane.
Stock price up + 35% since despite software sector imploding.
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The bull case for Japanese software:
- Revenues in yen so not hurt by JPY appreciation
- SaaS penetration rate is 5-7 years behind the US
- Growth is hard to find in Japan, but in SaaS - yes
- Incremental margins in software are high
- Run by young, aggressive CEOs
- Have sold off indiscriminately on gen AI fears
- EV/Sales multiples now often well below 3x
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@BerkelKip IIRC they went from c. 30% overlap with FTTH in 2020 to 90% by 2024. And mostly rural areas. Like just insane.
Now ATS + Starlink
Who said investing is easy?
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@BerkelKip With Graham (of WaPo) family in it and Merkel guy on the board. Loved their myth reality slides from 2014.
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I'm old enough to remember when Cable One $CABO was pitched as a high quality compounder... wow
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Today went up another 6%. Still kind of undervalued.
Full writeup in link in bio.
Safe&CheapStocks@SafeCheapStocks
Amazing someone (at large HF) just pledged USD 300 on Substack after reading my yesterday's SE Holdings write-up. Even though mine isn't behind a paywall. Yes, share price is up 6% today. Yes, there might be correlation, but causation? Not sure. I ain't Buffett to move prices
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Amazing someone (at large HF) just pledged USD 300 on Substack after reading my yesterday's SE Holdings write-up. Even though mine isn't behind a paywall.
Yes, share price is up 6% today. Yes, there might be correlation, but causation? Not sure. I ain't Buffett to move prices
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Thanks for pushback. Some say biz quality is low. I disagree: core biz's EBIT is 3-4x the level of 10Y ago. Group fcf mgn on revenues is consistently 10-15% - that is unheard of in small caps, let alone net-nets.
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Net-Net at 70% NCAV with consistent, growing FCF. Buying back ~2.75% each quarter. Investment portfolio 10x since 2015. open.substack.com/pub/safecheaps…
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@BerkelKip @Pray4Equity HI Kip (Norwegian?), as my write-up mentions, in text and footnotes, I could not find any granularity on the portfolio makeup.
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@SafeCheapStocks @Pray4Equity Thanks! Do you know how to see any more details on the makeup of their "Operational investments" on their balance sheet? If I look in their annual report (where most other companies disclose shareholding of at least some individual names) there is limited disclosure.
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@AltayCapital @atelicinvest @evfcfaddict I beg to differ, the core Publishing business EBIT is up 3-4x the levels of 10 yrs ago.
Group fcf margin on revenues is consistently 10-15% - very few JP net-nets do 15% fcf mgn on rev!
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@SafeCheapStocks @atelicinvest @evfcfaddict clouseau has pitched this name before. it's cheap but I think the core business is not great. yes very cheap, yes doing buybacks. Foreigners already own a lot of this name around 12% (likely due to clouseau's pitch earlier in the year which worked great).
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@evfcfaddict IMO wasn't even cheap: subscale chemical plays go for 6-8x ev/ebitda in M&A. Also IR slides kind of disgenieous like this one slide where they talk of ~ 30% ebitda mgns for 2025 newly won revenue.
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Most US micros are painful to hold over more than 1 quarter ;). Out of $ACNT after thinking about selling in the last days but didn’t want to pay so much taxes…nice cagr still but with less turnover planned for the future this lesson encourages me to focus even more on quality.
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@AltayCapital @Divergent7651 @AbdrazakAlmas @chat_SBC In my database 2016 to now, this is their 1st buyback ever. In the disclosure JP firms have to give reason for buybacks IMO you want to see "enhance sh returns" (seeing more and more) not "to help founder offload his 7.2% shs" or "capital efficiency"
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@Divergent7651 @AbdrazakAlmas @chat_SBC If you think the stock is cheap, it's a good thing. 7999 mutoh founder sold all his stock (like 40% or something) to a PE firm for 2200 yen each. Now the co is sold to a buyer for 7,639 yen a share like 6 months later. Insider selling isn't always a signal.
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Just bought my first Japanese stock. 402JPY. 1.5% position. Nice find @chat_SBC
chatSBC@chat_SBC
$4397.jp (teamspirit, enterprise erp system in Japan). feels like easiest 5-10x in public markets today. 0.5x revenue growing teens, initiating capital return, great mgmt, 95% gross retention rate. Creating biz on <1x FCF in a few years
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@SutjeSH What do you think of the c. EUR 200m in capex (c. 60% of its market cap) for Pier 6 expansion for constructing it between 2026 to, hopefully, going live 2029Q2?
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