Andy Sinclair

Los Angeles is renowned as one of the world capitals of bad traffic. But once upon a time, in the glorious age before cars, the city was home to the largest public transit system in the world. So how did this revolutionary devolution happen? Let’s talk about it🧵.

PSA: if you are trying to figure out how to re-route mail from the #eatonfire, the Lincoln Ave post office is pretty overwhelmed. They just announced they’d be open tomorrow afternoon as well, so I’m going to try again then.

@DanielMagleby I might think about changing jobs if the Broncos want one!

The head of analytics for the LA Dodgers is a political science PhD. The head of analytics for the Boston Celtics is a political science PhD. How many NFL teams have political scientists running their analytics team?

Other polling conversations taking place on threads and bluesky. Lots of political scientists on bluesky now.

I asked because I was interested in the extent of the difference between (a) someone partisan-coded (endorsed Harris) whose public presence was not mostly political and (b) elected officials. Biden gets 5% approval from Rs.

Taylor Swift: 85% of Ds favorable, 30% of Rs. Data from here (but the TS result isn’t in the report): roseinstitute.org/2024-poll-nati…

@blockedfreq @thetimes @YouGov That’s similar to what we found, too (also with YouGov). roseinstitute.org/2024-poll-penn…

✨ Newspapers are all dropping their surveys like hotcakes. @thetimes/@YouGov is out with their pre-elex PA poll (956 LVs, 10/25-10/31). 🦅 POTUS 🔵 Harris: 49% (+3) 🔴 Trump: 46% 🏛️ PA SEN 🔵 Casey: 50% (+6) 🔴 McCormick: 44% 🗳️ Generic Ballot 🔵 DEM: 49% (+5) 🔴 GOP: 44%

@RoseInstitute I’m writing a book about NY and CA; Ken Miller already wrote a book about CA/TX. amazon.com/Texas-vs-Calif…

@RoseInstitute The most common question I’ve had about this is ‘why the oversamples?’ Since our research focus is on state and local gov’t, the oversamples are for ongoing research on these specific states. They can be included with the national data to make slightly better nat’l estimates.

This is our work. Happy to answer questions.

@blockedfreq @YouGov Hi! That’s me! Happy to answer questions if you have them. I saw a few questions about the long fielding time—the answer is that YouGov soft-launches to make sure that everything works, and a few people trickle in later. So the vast majority of respondents are Oct. 10-15.

@YouGov Dates were from Oct 7 to 17th. This firm was kind enough to release a few crosstabs as well: Young voters (18-29): 63-30 Harris Blacks: 89-8 Harris Women: 50-43 Harris There was also a CBS/YouGov one in general that I think I missed - a 49-49 tie or something.

✨ CMC-Rose Institute/@YouGov Pennsylvania poll (1,043 LVs, full field test). 🦅 POTUS 🔵 Harris: 50% (+2) 🔴 Trump: 48% 🏛️ PA SEN 🔵 Casey: 50% (+8) 🔴 McCormick: 42% These are with leaners pushed and are part of a PA-specific sample lifted out of CMC's national poll.

I’m now also on bluesky. bsky.app/profile/jandre…

I do not use Twitter much anymore, but I came to say: do not commit voter fraud. I saw some encouragement here for people to try to vote more than once, using fake names. That is immoral, ineffective politically, and very illegal. You are likely to get caught. #2024Elections

#AcademicTwitter — a huge number of historians have now joined Threads, and you can find them there with the History Threads hashtag. (I only came over here to turn Grok off.)

More research needed beyond Alaska 2022! Initial findings suggest election system changes are associated w changes in voter behavior & opinions. Research by @jandrewsinclair @CMCnews @BetsySinclair1 @WUSTL @rmichaelalvarez @Caltech @christiangrose @USC journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.117…

I don’t know about you, but if I were running for President, I would not pick a VP who said this about me—Vance: “I go back and forth between thinking Trump is a cynical asshole like Nixon who wouldn't be that bad (and might even prove useful) or that he's America's Hitler.”

I’m there too! @jandrewsinclair/post/C6_gxVaODoj/?xmt=AQGzybpVXndW5dZg8VijwpXu0A-IoLsfWiTdpJ5sJm2yGg" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">threads.net/@jandrewsincla…

Anyone else from #COPPR24 also posting on Threads? Let’s find each other over there too!

Today is #electionday in #California. Don’t forget to vote! It’s easy to go in person to a polling place here in LA County if you can’t find your mail ballot or just like the experience. I voted this morning and it took about ten minutes.

If you are wondering where people are… lots of growth recently on Threads. I’m spending most of my time over there now, with occasional posts here.