Quality Value Investing

@GavMcCracken @toiletkingcap @calvinfroedge Is that why oil is down today. Twilight zone stuff.

I would just like to take a moment to publicly remind @toiletkingcap and @calvinfroedge that this is their government speaking

@ReturnsJourney My feed is 50% war stuff and 50% nothing ever happens fintwit ignoring the noise. Interesting contrast.

Are your feeds full of random travel and geography memes and posts plus some war stuff or it's just me? Finance twitter answers please

@mfwarder Which one do you prefer at the moment?

NEWC the only one in the group that hasn't corrected...yet. #CoalTwitter

@GavMcCracken Game theory to show he's crazy and force Iran to back down? Not that it seems to be working.

On Easter Sunday...

@Tintincapital Well if either way the iranian regime collapses, they may as well take the region down with them. Unless we get a TACO. Tuesday ultimatum will be interesting.

@qualityvalueinv Agree that that is scary. But what do they get out of that, other than complete destruction of oil their infrastructure? That's the Nihilism Card

Iran is overplaying their hand, imo. They'll get their quagmire. But they'll lose their leverage over the Strait forever.

@Tintincapital Iran has already hit a desalination plant in Kuwait. I see that as a warning. If they hit more desalination plants on Tuesday, there will be nothing left of the middle east. Mutually assured destruction. Hopefully i'm wrong.

@qualityvalueinv No doubt. But this Iran's last shot at it. If this goes on much longer, then Gulf countries will invest heavily so that oil/gas can avoid the Persian Gulf nearly entirely. It may already be too late for Iran. In which case they are not overplaying their hand.

Link: qualityvalueinvesting.substack.com/p/q1-26-review

Here's my Q1 26 review. I cover what worked, what didn't work, and how I'm thinking about risk after the recent political shocks. Link below. 🔗

@DavidDiranko Shouldn't you have used the 1970s?

What works in markets when inflation spikes and geopolitics heat up? I ran the data on over 25k stocks between 1986 and 2024. Read my thoughts in my recent "Random Walk Down David's Mind" on Contrarian Cashflows!

@hkuppy Is Trump actually a genius who did that on purpose to ensure the rest of the world loses access to ME energy and is forced to buy US energy. With an ally like that, the EU and Japan don't need enemies.

The important thing is that Trump is out of attractive options. Hormuz has to open, or the global economy dies. Iran won’t negotiate and ground wars are messy. Given the size and population of Iran, we likely need a force generation that is a few times that of Iraq 1. As you can imagine, most Americans want nothing to do with an adventure like this. At the same time, Trump cannot simply go home, as that would be a defeat. As terrible as it seems, Trump is slowly realizing what I said a few weeks ago, the only way out of Iran, is through Iran. Are you ready for what’s coming..?? They’ve been prepping for 45 years…

@TiehackCapital What's funny is that this stuff is still significantly more expensive than what value investors would buy.

@GavMcCracken Not afraid of windfall taxes?

If you still don't own Suncor you are running out of time to make the bet

Ahem😎. Who said "Ukraine will be the black swan". The global economy can't afford a single barrel to be offline. ‼️Ukraine has taken millions of barrels offline in mere days.

@evfcfaddict Amazing stuff. One tweet moving all asset classes by 10%.

In today`s markets, that`s good for 1.300 DAX points up in less than 15 minutes...

@evfcfaddict @walter_schloss If the strait of Hormuz remains closed multi-year, current prices still way too high. So not any scenario...

@walter_schloss long term yes - short term in some scenarios even the best companies will likely see some margin pressure.

Some stocks are really starting to look interesting here...and I mean mid- to long term interesting in any scenario.

@MikeFritzell You're not worried about oil and fertilizer shortages? Seems some of the damage will take years to repair, even if there's a ceasefire.

Fwiw

@mintzmyer Why these ones over Odfjell for example? Seems a clear net beneficiary, and cheaper.

Tankers should be surging, but broad market again missing forest (insanely strong markets, cascading inefficiency) for the trees (worry abt handful of ships at anchor). Top two public #shipping trades: $DHT ($18.36) $STNG ($77.75) Bookmark, check in a month. 20-30%+ potential.

@ELuttwak What can ships do against drones though.

tis hard for Takaichi to send ships but also important (no one-way alliances) . The Brits know they must be there & have sent 2 ships. Macron does not want to help but there are French interests .The Italian Navy wants the action & Meloni's smiles are not enough if it is NO

@calvinfroedge Seems gold miner investors are the only ones who take the oil price increase seriously.

I think the gold miner sell off maybe overdone

@irbezek Some analysts reckon that given the oil shortfall we'll have a deep recession but indeed the S&P is not going down. Strange times.

@qualityvalueinv None of $PAC's airports are in the same hemisphere as Iran. No shortages of jet fuel in Mexico. To a modest extent, we get more traffic because you can't go to Dubai anymore. Do oil prices stay up long enough to cause a recession? Maybe. But S&P is still flat YTD so mkt says no

Saw a bunch of people pushing mexican airline stocks earlier this year and I said i wouldn't own ut because the cartels run the country I uphold my view, not sure how the stocks have done but just why?