Raphaele Chappe

@EricLDaugh Courage.

🚨 HOLY SMOKES. Brave Iranian activist Masih Alinejad GOES NUCLEAR on the Khamenei regime at the UN "I now address the Representative of the Islamic Republic DIRECTLY: You have tried to KILL me 3 TIMES!" "My crime?! Echoing the voice of innocent people that you killed! Your leader, Ali Khamenei, he ordered my killing!" "I have seen my would-be assassin with my own eyes in front of my garden in my home in Brooklyn." "He said, 'that American agent who compared compulsory hijab to the Berlin Wall must be killed.' I am that woman but I am NOT the agent of America. I have agency, but I am thankful to American government and the law enforcement to protect my life!" "And it was not the protection of the law enforcement, I wouldn't, I couldn't have been here to testify for millions of people who are facing the same killers, facing the same terrorist regime in my country!" USA STANDS WITH THE IRANIAN PEOPLE!

@paul_amar2 Merci Paul Amar. L'histoire vous donnera raison!

« Honte à vous »

@saylor @AtlasHodld Endurance is hard and tough psychologically. But because of hundreds of hours listening to you, I want to do it. Will close my eyes, and instead read Will Durant's History Of Civilization...

Endure.

@TTejpal @AdamBLiv Couldn't agree more! Obviously, everyone needs to do their own research. But these guys were way off. I'm in it for the long run, but I'm still laughing at the "bewilderment" and "the most hated rally of all times".

The negative sentiment is NOT from people with a different time horizon. Ex - One year ago precisely, a bunch of Kid Analysts (including a 50+ year old) were EXTREMELY BULLISH on $MSTR stock on MSTR True North - Episode 2 - 10/30/24 - EARNINGS CALL] where the 50+ year old is claiming that “The next 7 months determine the rest of your life – it’s that simple! OK?” youtube.com/live/p4L15FLHC… As part of my due diligence I keep notes and evaluate all ideas and opinions shared below. So it really comes down to the HYPE. When YOU HYPE and UNDER DELIVER. That's when people get NEGATIVE. The reality of what happened to the stock is in this thread: x.com/TTejpal/status… Another data point was all your wild sermon like videos hyping up $MSTR and $MTPLF. That was another red flag.

Never forget that a lot of the negative sentiment comes from people with a different time horizon than you, and they often have a different reason than you did for buying the same equity. There’s a huge difference between being 30 and seeing a multi-year capital markets transformation with trillions of dollars flowing to digital credit… …and being 60 and wanting MSTR to 2-3x so you can retire, and you’re upset that Saylor bought Bitcoin too quickly. Just remember that other people not being happy doesn’t invalidate your thesis. Capitulation is filtration. Strong hands embrace it.

@Danainhawaii How would you fund the interest payments? You'd have to sell some BTC, but BTC is volatile, timing could be off. Michael Saylor has access to capital markets & can issue more securities to fund those payments. Leverage is controlled.

If Michael Saylor is willing to pay you 10% to borrow your money to buy Bitcoin. What’s stopping you from taking on a loan at 10% to borrow money to buy Bitcoin. 🤔 Not financial advice of course. Just thinking out loud.

Interesting and signals growing institutional adoption. ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-n…

@PunterJeff When there is more clarity around the earnings generated by the green bars, the market should apply a multiple on that, and a new phase of price discovery will begin. Curious to hear everyone's thoughts.

$MSTR Fundamentals are incredibly strong. Thesis is unchanged. I'd continue to argue that risk is mispriced globally with the introduction of digital capital, and BTC backed securities BTC could fall another 50% from here, and $MSTR would be less leveraged than a typical S&P 500 company Also, with BTC at $113K, $MSTR is sitting on a $3B gain from BTC holdings in Q3. Fortitudine Vincimus

@PunterJeff My question is: in a situation like this, how do we figure out what component of FASB earnings is attributable to the green bars vs. the orange bars. It's pretty clear the market doesn't get it... yet

@PunterJeff This is exactly what @saylor explained here: we would expect an mNAV of 1 in this situation, yet we would be reporting FASB earnings tracking the BTC price fluctuations. P/E multiple makes no sense.

@PunterJeff There is confusion about how to value the company. For purposes of applying a P/E multiple, the focus on FASB earnings driven by BTC price is confusing and misguided. We should be looking at a new measure of earnings that solely focuses on the BTC $ yield.

@Forbes The author of this piece doesn't seem to know that "Nothing Stops This Train" was coined by @LynAldenContact that's kind of embarrassing! forbes.com/sites/digital-…

@LynAldenContact But even the post-2020 trajectory is different, for the same graph. It seems the time series changed!

@LynAldenContact This statistic came up recently in my work so spent time on it and wanted to flag that it seems that the Fred data changed slightly since Jan 2024. The number is more like 87% now, interestingly.

92.5% of equities are held by the top 10% wealthiest Americans. A record high concentration.

@RichardAHaas @PunterJeff I would agree. In fact, isn't what is being valued here the future expected BTC yield? or are we also valuing the future expected BTC $ value of the current stash? the latter is a more mysterious argument to me

Provocative framing. Maybe compelling story for retail, but let me offer another view for discussion sake. First, when investing you’re buying a vision of the future which is unknown - investing is about what happens in the future, not what is true today. Yes, financial strength today is easy to understand. But as you know, capital markets already adjust for the difference between capital now vs. capital later via discounting. Future cash flows are earned in nominal dollars of that future period, and aren’t subject to today’s debasement - they’re just worth less in PV terms. And discount premiums are adjusted for volatility. In $MSTR case, the market doesn’t reward them for “having money” or even for holding Bitcoin. BTC is priced at spot, there’s no premium on BTC for future BTC price appreciation because it’s instantly arbitraged to par. The only story that matters is $MSTR ability to innovate and repeatedly access capital to acquire more bitcoin. That, imo, is the only thing that warrants premium; until repeatable operating cash flows can be produced. The story isn’t “I have the money” It is in fact, “I will have the money (to generate BTCY), and I can keep getting it.” The unknowable future of continually generating btc yield is the inefficiency to be priced - not a misunderstanding of B/S strength today vs future CF.

This all boils down to: Telling a story of FINANCIAL STRENGTH is far easier to comprehend THAN a story of expectation of FUTURE CASH FLOWS. I have the money vs. I will have the money 🟩👆🏼

@MichelleMakori @MilesFranklinCo You are amazing at what you do. Excited to see this new development!

Happy to share the official announcement video for my new show - 'The Real Story with Michelle Makori' Proud to collaborate with @MilesFranklinCo We’re building more than a show - we’re launching a sovereign media platform for free thinking, real debate, & bold conversations on money, markets, and power. Stay tuned for the first episode, dropping soon... This is just the beginning!

@Iknowurmomwell @durov @ashish_fagna @LePoint We are grateful for your efforts to speak French & the gravity of the situation requires it. Merci à vous Mr. Durov.

🎥 My first attempt at recording a video in French (at the request of @LePoint 🇫🇷). Forgive my French! 😉

@saylor The original music that plays under those headphones was called "dreams are my reality" 🤣youtube.com/watch?v=EQDHCy…

The best way to win a girl's heart

@BevansAdvocate @sanjaygreddy Thank you!

Advanced Microeconomics for the Critical Mind by @sanjaygreddy + @raphaelechappe Is actually an excellent companion to Mas Colell for this kind of analysis. Raphaële provides explanations of theory, while Reddy focuses on conceptual framework and critique youtube.com/playlist?list=…

I’m honored to be speaking at the @ownereconomy  Summit on December 4th in NYC! Register here 👉 eventbrite.com/e/2nd-annual-o… #OwnershipEconomySummit #FutureOfOwnership #OE2024 Use the discount code PreD20 for 20% off!

@dotkrueger By the way, I really appreciate you, and your work.

First they told me..."get ready for the halving." Nothing. They said "supply shock". Nothing. Then they said "It takes a few months". Nothing. Then they said "Uptober". I would like my money back.