
Scale Advantage Research
169 posts

Scale Advantage Research
@scaleadvantage
Partner at multi-$B asset manager. All views my own and not investment advice.










BUILD 🔥: Exclusive, an early look at Copilot Code and Copilot Cowork tabs of the upcoming super app from Microsoft, following earlier leaked screenshot of the Scout 24/7 Agent. Developers, Developers, Developers 👏



$META META IS GETTING INTO THE AI SUBSCRIPTION GAME. - Meta is expanding paid subscriptions globally across Instagram, Facebook, and WhatsApp, while also testing new AI, creator, and business plans under the “Meta One” brand. - Consumer plans are expected to start around $2.99 to $3.99 per month. - Meta is also testing AI subscription tiers at $7.99 and $19.99 per month, with the higher tier offering more capacity for complex prompts, deeper reasoning, and increased image and video generation. Looks like Zucks is deciding that his next core revenue stream will be subscriptions beyond advertising... $META +3%

1/ $META just launched IG, FB, and WhatsApp subscriptions globally and started testing Meta One, its umbrella brand for AI, creator, and biz plans. The market underappreciates the upside, ~12% to META EPS. Here is the math, based on $SNAP's subscription journey🧵





1/ $META just launched IG, FB, and WhatsApp subscriptions globally and started testing Meta One, its umbrella brand for AI, creator, and biz plans. The market underappreciates the upside, ~12% to META EPS. Here is the math, based on $SNAP's subscription journey🧵





It would be cannibalistic if they followed the Snap playbook, because Snap moved core functionality behind the subscription paywall. Snap sees lower retention / increased churn on users that don’t subscribe, but because Snap monetizes poorly with ads, on net, the subscription strategy is profitable./ Meta has far higher ads ARPU than Snap. If Meta were to follow Snap’s playbook, any churn resulting from moving core functionality behind the subscription would produce a net loss. So if Meta can’t incentivize subscription adoption by gating core functionality, it has to find new functionality to use to entice users to subscribe. That’s a more challenging product proposition, and it’s also not novel: Meta tried that with Meta Verified. Is it AI? Then they forfeit usage data and, potentially, the advertising opportunity there.

Did people really expect $META wouldn't charge a subscription for AI products and use their +3B distribution network? $SNAP makes $5B in ad revenue and $1B in direct subs revenue (growing 87% YoY). $META can add a few $10B to its bottom line just by providing solid-value subscriptions. Distribution is the ultimate AI bottleneck and moat, as we have AI models and services available in every app and platform.

What the market doesn't understand is that the Anthropic x SpaceX deal adds a downside protection for $META. SpaceX rents out 300+ MW (220k GPUs) of compute for 15B/year. $META owns >1.3M GPUs as of 2025 YE.

1/ $META just launched IG, FB, and WhatsApp subscriptions globally and started testing Meta One, its umbrella brand for AI, creator, and biz plans. The market underappreciates the upside, ~12% to META EPS. Here is the math, based on $SNAP's subscription journey🧵




