SouthernValue

@evrgn11112231 x.com/tftc21/status/…

For those making real money investing using Claude Code workflows, please share how!

@Citrini7 Long digital short HALO

I can’t really see the scenario where stocks don’t go lower in the near term. Maybe that’s s bull case? Market has been so desperate for a taco people have been making their own and forgot that in an actual war both sides have to agree to end it (or one has to surrender). They’re going to figure that out eventually. The Fed’s cutting cycle is on its way to being completely priced out. 2 weeks ago, SOFR Z7 was 75bps lower than March 2026. Now it’s down to 25bps and IOR is comfortably above 2yr (meaning reserve managers are not buying the dip on the expectation the cutting cycle continues). If NFP is strong, it’ll wreck rates (at a time when financing has become increasingly important for the largest companies in the world) while if it’s weak I don’t think equities respond positively either. And this all is coming at a time when AI is maybe not good enough to convince companies to replace workers with machines while business goes along as usual, but certainly is good enough to have companies attempt to use it for roles they had to cut because of economic pressure and potentially find out they don’t need to hire that role back. It’s one thing to see some bearish scenarios and brush them off as priced in, that’s been a good strategy (most years have drawdowns of 10-15% routinely). But SPX is ~5% off all time highs…

@PythiaR 8% is only the starting sandbag guide while assuming no capital deployment to buyback or m&a haha. It’s a low teens EPS grower at current valn IMO

Objectively considering the businesses 8-12% EPS growth profile, $DHR finally probably fairly valued here at low 20's.

$TMO back at basically liberation day multiples doesn't make a ton of sense to me outside context of: 1) Guided "down" vs expectations that were too high at 25x earlier this year after running to 25x based on expectations that were too low on liberation day vs. actual tariff impact + NIH + pharma pricing risk to the biz. 2) Inflation shock = bad for duration.

@PythiaR We’ve gone from neversell quality at any price to full factor positioning bogey mo

I hate what this place has become. Is what it is tho.

@chat_SBC 69% of the time it works every time

would you rather buy:

@Citrini7 Prayers for your Dad 🙏

As some of you know, my dad has been fighting lung cancer for the past 2 years. If any of you have any experience with the medical system, you know that the family/patient have to be aggressive advocates. Doctors have a lot of patients and, as much as I’m sure they’d like to, don’t have infinite time. It’s been pretty amazing to see how AI has enabled my mom to be an advocate by translating medical terminology and explaining complex issues. Definitely makes things a lot easier and has made the entire process more manageable. Whenever we get a new test result, she puts it into chat GPT or Claude and (especially now that it has memory) it updates her on what’s going on. Incredibly helpful and really has maximized the communication with his team.

@ContrarianCurse Ecosystem needs funding … 😆

What the fuck are they gunna do with the rest lol x.com/unusual_whales…

@BucknSF VMS in other words

one thing we may learn is that specialization is required by the labs. RL compute and data for complex tasks is expensive and productized harnesses require focus. if so that is bullish for anyone not specializing in the tasks the labs clearly want (code, excel, etc.)

@compound248 Way more fun to be an optimist. And for Buffett’s career, much more profitable!

HT: @SouthernValue95 for posting this in a random reply somewhere.

Warren Buffett speaks about AI… …back in 2017. Buffett: Because of its productivity, “[AI] would result in significantly less employment in certain areas. “But that’s good for society - it may not be good for a given business… “It would be a good thing, but would require enormous transformation.” It’s worth watching the whole thing. Buffett goes on to talk about how massive increases in productivity, which are beneficial for society writ large are often hard at the micro level for individuals. And, because it may be hard for individuals to tie attribution of the benefits to AI, in the same way global trade is macro beneficial but often micro painful, these productivity booms can be disruptive to democracy. Funny enough, I made a similar point to @akramsrazor and @Crussian17 last week: macro good, micro hard.

Just back from a trip to $COST

@Citrini7 @dylan522p I made sure to label it a scenario!

I think shortage means tokens go to those with the highest ROI, therefore everyone in the supply chain (semicap, fabs, chips, clouds) ought to make a good return. And also think shortage might reduce volatility bc we will be under producing, not under and over producing as we guess demand

@AlphaSeeker84 @SouthernValue95 @dylan522p The adoption is slower because of bottlenecks in the capex cycle. So own the bottlenecks.

This podcast with @dylan522p is a terrific rebuttal to the Citrini doomer scenario by playing through the real world constraints of a fast-ish takeoff (I know it wasn’t intended as such). The constraints to producing enough AI tokens to be disruptive to society will slow it down and let the world adopt at a more digestible pace. But more importantly, we should not think of AIs impact on the world in a zero sum manner. As AI becomes more capable, the value of producing more tokens goes up, every corner of the energy and semis supply chain will need to ramp capacity, and in doing so, will invest / hire and grow GDP. This somewhat small example of a tech entrepreneur using AI to develop a cancer vaccine for his dog highlights that things that were not before possible or practical may now be. What if we suddenly find 300 new disease cures in the next 2-3 years? We will have a biotech boom that makes the COVID era look like a warmup, and a manufacturing boom to produce the drugs, more hiring and more GDP growth. It’s not crazy that we could be facing skilled labor shortages for many years. theaustralian.com.au/business/techn… (thanks @ElliotTurn ) The broader point is there will be lots of growth in new areas that didn’t exist before, and we will need people to do new jobs and to build those companies. If society can do everything we do today with fewer people, and reallocate some amount of people to new tasks, that’s a very good thing. That’s a productivity boom that potentially increases the quality of life for everyone on the planet.

Here is Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger speaking on AI in 2017. They highlight the political risks but overall agree that a huge productivity boom would be a very good thing.

@PythiaR Need more WFE than that to make semicap juicy from here tbh haha

$KLAC saying $215 billion in 2030 WFE will “still underserve ANNOUNCED data centre capacity”.

@buccocapital @evrgn11112231

@SouthernValue95 @evrgn11112231 Or you can also just listen to him and buy the stock

FinTwit to @evrgn11112231

$IGV ❤️ $SMH

This is not correct. TSM is a bottleneck. Meta cannot select whichever compute they want, they are subject to constraints and competition for capacity like everyone else. Since NVDA has locked down most of the supply chain capacity for AI accelerators through 2027 there’s only so much anyone can do to reduce dependence on NVDA. And Trn and TPU are far more mature ASIC programs than MTIA.

"Meta can legitimately pit Nvidia, AMD, and its own MTIA foundries against one another to secure the absolute lowest prices and best supply allocations, whereas cloud providers are largely price-takers in the Nvidia ecosystem" - @borrowed_ideas