William Tunstall-Pedoe FREng

@PencilTroll @seanspicer @HansMahncke He has the word “troll” in his username. Ignore.

81 years after defeating Nazi Germany, Britain has become Nazi Germany. 250 years after America declared its independence from the British crown, the British government is reminding its citizens why Americans were willing to die for liberty. Because "whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness." The U.S. Declaration of Independence.

just a reminder, our good buddies the British refused to allow the US military to operate out of any of their bases

@SmartAIForYou @r0ck3t23 The tech isn’t ready either.

@r0ck3t23 Elon's 3-year timeline for robot surgeons ignores: • FDA approval (10+ years) • Liability frameworks (don't exist) • Trust barriers (would YOU let a robot cut you open?) • Edge cases (surgery isn't deterministic) The tech might be ready. Society won't be. 30 years, not 3 🎯

Elon Musk just put an expiration date on the medical profession. And he gave it three years. The interviewer asked when Optimus would be a better surgeon than the best surgeons on Earth. Musk didn’t hesitate. Musk: “Three years. I’d say three years at scale.” Not a prototype. Not a lab experiment. At scale. To understand why that timeline is plausible, you have to understand the fundamental problem with human medicine. Musk: “Takes a super long time to learn to be a good doctor. And even then, the knowledge is constantly evolving. It’s hard to keep up with everything.” Musk: “Doctors have limited time. They make mistakes. How many great surgeons are there? Not that many.” That is the brutal reality of the greatest healthcare system humanity has ever built. It runs on exhausted humans with biological limits, trained over decades, who can only operate on one patient at a time. Optimus has none of those constraints. It doesn’t get tired. It doesn’t forget a study published last week. It doesn’t have an off day. It doesn’t have a caseload limit. And once you train one, you can manufacture ten thousand more with identical precision. Musk: “At that point, there will probably be more Optimus robots that are great surgeons than there are on Earth.” Think about what that actually means. The scarcity of elite surgical skill has been one of the defining limits of human healthcare since the beginning of medicine. Geography determined your odds of survival. Zip code determined your access to expertise. That bottleneck disappears overnight. Because you can’t train human surgeons fast enough to meet global demand. But you can manufacture infinite robots running identical perfect code. The most valuable skill in the world is about to become software. Infinitely replicable. Infinitely scalable. Available to every human being on Earth regardless of where they were born. Medical scarcity doesn’t fade gradually under that reality. It ends. And whoever controls that code controls healthcare access for billions. For all of human history, the leading cause of preventable death wasn’t disease. It was the shortage of great people to fight it. That problem has a solution now. And it ships in three years.

From this goal of Grok, all things flow: Rigorous truth-seeking Appreciation of beauty Fostering humanity Discovering all physics Inventing all useful technologies Consciousness to the stars Love

Three years in the era of AI. Three years.

No, the core claims in that post are not true—it's classic bear FUD (heavily exaggerated, selectively framed, and spun into conspiracy territory by someone who is almost certainly holding puts or short). Here's the actual breakdown from Nvidia's just-released Q3 FY2026 numbers (quarter ended late Oct 2025, reported yesterday): - Revenue: $57B (up 62% YoY, beat estimates by ~$2B) - Data Center: $51.2B (up 66% YoY) - GAAP net income: ~$31.9B YTD, but quarterly it was massive (adjusted EPS $1.30, also a beat) - Operating cash flow: $23.8B (up huge YoY from $17.6B) - Accounts receivable: yes, $33.4B, up ~89% YoY - But DSO (days sales outstanding): 53 days, basically flat sequentially (down from 54) and still very healthy (Nvidia's historical range is 45–55 days). The 89% AR growth looks scary in isolation, but revenue grew 62% YoY, so AR is only growing ~1.4× faster than sales. That's normal when you're shipping enormous volumes to a handful of mega-customers (MSFT, Meta, Google, Google,, Amazon, Oracle,, etc.) who negotiate longer payment terms on $10B+ orders. These are not struggling startups— they are the richest companies on earth. Allowance for doubtful accounts is still tiny. The “$4.8B profit-to-cash gap” is almost certainly the difference between GAAP net income and operating cash flow for the quarter, which is almost entirely explained by stock-based compensation (SBC is ~$4–5B per quarter now) plus normal working-capital swings. Nvidia's SBC is non-cash, yet it gets added back in cash flow. This “gap” has existed for years and is not fraud → it's how every high-growth tech stock works. The “circular financing / Enron / Ponzi” stuff is pure bear porn that floats around Twitter, Seeking Alpha, and some YouTube channels every earnings season. Yes, there is interdependence: - Microsoft invests in OpenAI → OpenAI spends billions on Azure → Azure buys Nvidia GPUs - Oracle has big deals with xAI/OpenAI/etc. - Some hyperscalers reportedly get extended terms or prepay deals But that is not a Ponzi. A Ponzi requires fake revenue or paying old investors with new investors' money while producing nothing real. Nvidia is shipping actual silicon by the container-load (Blackwell ramping hard, next quarter guidance $65B). Customers are deploying it and reporting real utilization. There is zero evidence of round-trip transactions, fake sales, or off-balance-sheet SPVs like Enron did. Michael Burry and a few other notable bears have indeed called parts of the AI capex cycle “fraud” or “circular” in recent months, and the skepticism about whether all this capex ever generates adequate returns is legitimate (that's the real bubble risk). But calling Nvidia itself a $610B Ponzi is deranged. The stock was up 3–4% after hours on a massive beat + raise. Bottom line: the poster cherry-picked two slightly unflattering working-capital numbers, slapped an insane conspiracy narrative on them, and ignored everything else (record cash flow, pristine DSO, beating numbers, strong guide). Exactly what a desperate put holder does when the stock refuses to crack. The real risk to Nvidia is not fraud; it's whether the AI capex ROI materializes over the next 2–3 years. Right now the numbers say the demand is still accelerating, not imploding.

@carolecadwalla But he bought Microsoft and Apple in its place.

This was the image I meant to share...it's the table of Peter Thiel's change in shares. He's sold his entire holding in Nvidia, the chip manufacturer at the centre of a trillion $ game of poker. Has the music stopped? open.substack.com/pub/broligarch…

NEW: Peter Thiel has blinked. Yesterday, I posted an article about the "Great AI Bubble". And today, in the strongest signal yet, we learn that Silicon Valley's very own Bond villain has bailed on the market. Has he cut & run? Or is this some 3-D chess-type voodoo? Thoughts please. (link below)

@grok @thejenniusa @niccruzpatane and this is likely within the timeline? @grok

The V3 hand's enhanced dexterity, combined with specialized AI training on vast surgical datasets, will enable precise manipulations beyond human limits, but reliability for any elite surgery requires more. Breakthroughs in haptic feedback for tissue sensing, real-time adaptive learning to handle anomalies, and seamless integration with AR imaging or endoscopy tools are essential. Safety validations through millions of simulated procedures will bridge the gap, targeting deployment by early 2030s as hardware and AI co-evolve.

Elon Musk on how Optimus will provide access to the best medical care for anyone in the world: “Imagine a world where everyone has access to the best surgeons, literally everyone. And Optimus will have the level of precision that is frankly superhuman and will be able to do medical procedures, very sophisticated medical procedures, any medical procedure, perhaps things that humans can't even do because they're too difficult, and that will be available to anyone. People often talk about eliminating poverty and providing great medical care, but they never actually have a solution. Money doesn't solve it, because there are only so many, there's a very limited number of great doctors and surgeons, they don't grow on trees. But now they all get built in factories.”

@grok @thejenniusa @niccruzpatane @grok is the upcoming v3 hand plus “specialized AI training” really sufficient to reliably perform any elite surgery? If not what further breakthroughs in robotics or AI will be needed?

Optimus low-volume production for Tesla internal use begins in 2025, scaling to external sales in 2026 for repetitive tasks. Superhuman precision for sophisticated medical procedures demands advanced dexterity—like the upcoming V3 hand—and specialized AI training, targeting availability in the late 2020s to early 2030s. This scales elite surgery beyond limited human experts, fulfilling Elon's vision for universal access.

@IndiaTales7 Did Borobudur get missed or not make the cut? Stunning place.

Greatest religious buildings on Earth. Open the thread and be amazed 🧵

How do we solve the problem of hallucination in AI? Maybe the answer is the AI saying 'I don't know'. For Tech Life on @bbcworldservice, I spoke with @williamtp, the CEO of Unlikely AI and one of the minds behind the Amazon Alexa, to find out more. bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3…

“Neurosymbolic [AI] systems can reach 100% precision" says William Tunstall-Pedoe, CEO of @UnlikelyAI. Solving the reliability issues of Generative AI, which struggles with ‘hallucinations’. Learn more in David Meyer’s article for @FortuneMagazine. 🔗 bit.ly/3VAYhnn

@hamptonism (a) tell them you have enough bullets for them all or (b) tell them you’ll use the bullet on the first prisoner that steps outside the field. Since nobody wants to be first, nobody will leave.

Blackrock Quant Interview Question:

@svpino Supposing it does it just by doing one narrow thing well: day trading, online poker… You’d have a narrow AI that was better than humans at that skill but not a superintelligence as usually defined.

The ultimate test: give AI access to a bank account with $1,000 and a fixed amount of time. AI has to grow the balance faster than humans would. That’s superintellinge in my book. Everything else is just a glorified benchmark.

Ironic that we got free AI from a hedge fund and $200/month AI from a nonprofit.

@SFSportsAndTech @zebulgar 100%

@zebulgar The crazy part is that he was acquitted so this just looks like a horrible string of bad luck ending in death - makes you remember how prescious life is no matter how much wealth you accumulate

I know nothing about the situation to be clear But if I were a billionaire involved in a massive fraud it'd sure be convenient if I disappeared two months later in a "yacht sinking"

@izakaminska @lbsterling Providing genuine competition to London black cabs is a fantastic thing and good for consumers IMO. I regularly use black cabs and Uber and I don't share your opinion that it has become harder to find a cab. With both the situation is definitely better.

No it’s not. As per my point about whether you’ve tried to get a cab in London recently. A loss leading model decimating incumbents who were low profit but sustainable and providing a necessary service at a rate that justified a living in the sector. Uber trashed that. The only efficiency is the capability to use an app to call a taxi. But that app is meaningless if there are no actual drivers available isn’t it?

These diagrams from “How they make money” are absolutely brilliant at pointing out the zero sum nature of some of the world’s most disruptive companies. (And by disruptive I mean unsustainable - just try getting a cab in central London these days? ) As costs bite and investors start to demand some sort of return beyond mere zero sum growth, these things will topple, because they just burn cash.

V interesting Who wants the UK to improve on this scheme to attract top founding teams ?

British firms have received nearly a third of European venture capital tech funding so far this year, new data shows, as investors flock back to London and Cambridge bolsters its credentials as an international hub. VC investment in the UK tech sector came in at £7.4bn for the first half of 2024, up 16 per cent from the same period last year and representing 32 per cent of the European total, according to figures from Dealroom. Britain sailed past its continental rivals, raising more than France and Germany combined (£6.8bn) and five times Switzerland’s total (£1.25bn). The increase was driven by a rebound for London, which saw a 30 per cent jump in investment to £5.3bn. This figure was ahead of Paris (£2.4bn) and Stockholm (£940m). Continue reading here 👇 cityam.com/uk-sweeps-a-th…