Kevin O'Neill

What has been the worst bet in the NCAA tourney (and maybe all of sports) over the past few decades? And what game theory-oriented bracket pool strategy should be on your radar? Both in my latest mediocre whiteboard video, sponsored by absolutely nobody.

NCAA Morning Sessions: Looks like it will be 8-0 OVERS 7-0 on the Favorites above 2 SU 6-1 ATS on those Favorites I can only imagine the parlay liability the Books are staring at...... "The music is still playing....... BUT........ the current significant losses are tiny compared to what could happen. If this happens in all the late games it will wipe out the market capitalization of the firm..... The Movie Margin Call.......

Looks like tourney overs were 7-1 this afternoon. First halves 6-2 to the over.

The softness continued for ‘nova. From 3: Utah St: 2-16 Villanova: 14-30 Yet Aggies win by 10. You’re simply the tougher, more physical team when that happens.

Upset with his Charmin-soft interior D, Villanova Coach Kevin Willard casts blame by telling CBS he wants to fire his staff.   Utah State coach Jerrod Calhoun can dial up some in-bounds sets.

Iowa State forward Joshua Jefferson meaningful ankle injury. Not putting any weight on foot. Averages: 16.9 points 7.6 rebounds 4.9 (!!!) assists Leader or essentially tied for team lead in all three categories.

Virginia has all the matchup advantages over Wright St but the ACC teams were dreadful on Thursday.

@NotTheeWillHill The longtime outlier amidst the exceptional quality of @BGlobeSports . There has never been a greater step down as when he took over as their key Pats & NFL voice when @GregABedard left for Sports Illustrated.

The coach of a 30 point dog who tries an unconventional approach to pull off a miracle and nearly pulls off the upset should probably be praised more than blamed

Miami-O can shoot.  Tennessee can’t, but they Vols offense is OK due to their ferocious offensive rebounding where they get 45% of their misses, #1 in the country and only one of two teams who get more than 39% of their own misses. Florida (43%) is the other.

Some star-oriented notes. Cal Baptist and Kansas features the stats of a game where there is some defense.  But Kansas last three opening round games have had 166, 194, and 164 points in regulation.

Seemed like a safe tweet at the time.

Through 20 NCAA Tournament games, the closing underdog is 13-7 ATS, including 9-11 straight up on the moneyline... In last year's entire First 4 & Round 64, we only saw 8 total outright upsets.

@potatokmish They tried to blow it early.

@ExtraHalfPoint Not to mention Duke.

A pair of ACC entrants did everything they could to give away their games down the stretch. Starting with 10 minutes left: USF 32 Louisville 15 Cards barely hold on to win. VCU 33 UNC 14 Heels lose in OT. A combined 65-29 in crunch time. Yikes!!!

Kennesaw & UGA in the same window is a little weird. Texas & Texas A&M at the same time is bizarre.

I’m fine, thank you.

While Sean Miller is not known for being straightforward in interviews with NCAA investigators, he is very direct when asked about BYU’s potential #1 NBA draft pick AJ Dybsanta.

I presume St Mary’s expected to get more than two shot attempts in the first 4:44. Great game plan and execution by A&M.

USF/Louisville was an end-game side AND total tour de force.

Nice for all the Louisville, South Florida, and local Buffalo folks to show up to watch the refs.

Big budget SMU being winless in the tourney since 1988 is crazy, but Nebraska NEVER winning won was insane. Congrats to the Huskers for getting the monkey off their back. 24-6 and 16-3 runs led Nebraska to a 76-47 blowout over Troy in a game that stayed well under the total.