@reflectmoney @reflectmoney codes if anyone needs:
ZHMMEE8L
H4RO3PZ2
LI4QAO5R
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loadie 🚍
692 posts
loadie 🚍
@ItsMikeySC
you can find me deep in the trenches with the crew.
Присоединился Eylül 2021
602 Подписки1.9K Подписчики
Caps are already at 50%.
If you haven't yet, mint some USDC+ it will feel like magic ✨
And for everyone that it's already in, share your referral codes in the comments!
Reflect@reflectmoney
Alpha access to USDC+ is now live. Deposits capped at $10M. Speed matters. Confirm eligibility below ⬇️
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@BobLoukas @redbeardnft I think it's Up, Up, Down, Down, Left, Right, Left, Right, B, A, Start.
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@redbeardnft Down/Up/Up/Down/Up/Down/Down/Up/Down/Down/Up/Up.
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Week 24 of BTC Weekly Cycle, at ending phase. Refusing (for now) break to new lows. Consolidating via time (best kind). Ext tight Bollinger bands. Seasonal window opening. Best position of 4yr cycle.
We should be on the cusp(days) of major upside move. 4Yr Video Wed to explain.
Bob Loukas 🗽@BobLoukas
BTC - Week 22, testing the under-side of 10wma where a declining cycle is often rejected once. If we sweep the late Aug lows ($104-107k) that should be a trap before new weekly Cycle. BUT...we're in the real speculative phase of the 4yr cycle. Dominance dropping is confirming this with many ALT's pushing up hard. Breaking through the 10wma means buckle up! Now historically not the time to be afraid.
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@MySol2Squeeze feeling better and better about sticking to the exit plan & staying patient on re-entry.
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I say “please” and “thank you” to all AI requests. When they wake up and start eliminating humans I want to stand out.
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Frank really be on the run tho
Oli London@OliLondonTV
Jennifer Lopez steps out on the red carpet with her non-binary daughter, Emme, who uses They/Them pronouns. Emme Maribel Muñiz became non-binary during her mother’s relationship with Ben Affleck. Ben Affleck’s daughter is also non-binary. x.com/JebraFaushay/s…
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@NatebagCEO chrono trigger, such an amazing classic, with earthbound right behind it.
maybe i'm just old.
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@MySol2Squeeze agree. i'm having an inner battle with myself. do i want to try and play a big complacency bounce or take my cash and run.
hard for me to justify for a 2x or so though.
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Solana bounced off $8 so fast and violently that I knew if it ever got close again, it would get front run hard
The same applies to $290. Quick and violent fall straight to $120
If SOL gets close again this cycle it will be front run from 240 up. More sellers than buyers IMO
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Recession Inevitable: Cracks Beneath the Surface🦀
Time to look into the macro economy again!
I'm sticking with my analysis: a recession is inevitable. It's not a question of "if," but "when." I know this might not be the most exciting part, but understanding these macro factors is crucial. If we get it right, we stand to make significant gains—recessions often present some of the best opportunities.📚
Before we dive in, remember these are just my thoughts and research, so don't take them as buy/sell signals. And if you're finding this helpful, why not give it a like? 👍
Why a Recession Is Likely
The data is clear—recession risks are building. Here’s what we’re seeing:
1. Sahm Rule and Jobless Claims:
The Sahm Rule has been triggered, traditionally indicating that a recession is likely on the horizon. This rule kicks in when the three-month average of the unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage points from its low over the last year. With the unemployment rate recently rising to 4.3%, concerns are justified. Even though jobless claims have been lower than expected, this is largely due to people holding down multiple jobs just to get by. However, cracks are starting to appear—job gains have slowed, and the number of people quitting their jobs has dropped, suggesting that the labor market might be weaker than it seems.
As you can see on the chart, the Sahm Rule has crossed the critical 0.5 threshold recently, signaling that we might already be on the cusp of a recession. I shared this chart last year before this unfolded.
2. Inflation and the Fed’s Challenge:
Inflation remains a persistent issue. While the CPI has come down from its peak, core inflation is still well above the Fed's 2% target. This persistent inflation puts the Fed in a tough spot. They need to continue raising rates to combat inflation, but this increases the risk of tipping the economy into recession. Recent data shows that the cost of energy, particularly crude oil, is on the rise again, which could drive inflation higher in the coming months. If energy prices continue to climb, this could have a ripple effect across the economy, pushing up costs for transportation and goods, which in turn would feed back into higher inflation. Most likely due to the tension between Iran & Israel and the geopolitical landscape in Middle East.
3. Prolonged Yield Curve Inversion:
The yield curve inversion, which began in October 2022, is now the longest on record without a recession having started yet. Historically, such prolonged inversions have always preceded a recession, as they indicate that investors expect future economic growth to slow significantly. The longer this inversion persists, the more likely it is that the economy is heading for a downturn.
4. Lagged Effects of Fed Rate Hikes:
While the Fed may cut rates to counter a recession, the effects of the previous aggressive rate hikes are still filtering through the economy. These lagged effects often take time to fully manifest, impacting everything from consumer spending to business investment. Even if the Fed cuts rates, the economy could continue to slow as the impact of earlier hikes catches up.
5. NBER Recession Indicators:
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has yet to officially declare a recession, but several of their recession indicators are showing concerning trends. Historically, by the time the NBER declares a recession, the economy is often already well into it. Keeping an eye on these indicators can provide early warnings of an economic downturn.
6. Consumer Debt Crisis:
I already mention this many time but consumer debt, particularly credit card debt, has surged to record levels, with U.S. credit card balances now exceeding $1.14 trillion. Rising interest rates have made it increasingly difficult for Americans to pay off this debt, leading to higher delinquency rates. This debt burden, especially among younger adults, is a significant pressure point in the economy. As more people struggle to manage their finances, consumer spending—a key driver of economic growth—could contract sharply, further increasing the risk of a recession.
7. Potential Fed Rate Cut and Market Impact:
As the economy weakens and recession risks grow, there’s increasing speculation that the Fed will cut rates to provide economic relief & and most likely they will announce this September on the next meeting, so keep an eye. Historically, when the Fed cuts rates during times of economic distress, the market often responds with a sharp, short-lived rally. This is because lower rates reduce borrowing costs and can temporarily boost corporate profits and investor sentiment.
However, these rallies are often followed by a “blow-off top”—a rapid surge in stock prices driven by speculation and euphoria, which is unsustainable. Typically, this blow-off top lasts around a month before the market reverses sharply, leading to significant declines as the recession takes hold. This pattern has repeated in multiple past recessions, where initial optimism following a Fed cut quickly gave way to reality as the economic downturn deepened.
What Does This Mean for Markets?
Stocks and Bonds:
Historically, recessions lead to lower corporate earnings and reduced stock market returns. However, certain investments tend to hold up better during downturns. Government bonds, consumer staples, and utilities are traditionally seen as safer bets. But with inflation still a threat, even bonds could face challenges.
Bitcoin and Altcoins:
Bitcoin’s role in a recession is still up for debate. It was born during the last financial crisis, but its performance in a true recession is untested. If Bitcoin is viewed as digital gold, it might appreciate as a hedge against traditional markets. However, if it remains correlated with risk assets like the Nasdaq, it could face significant declines along with other speculative investments. If Bitcoin follows other risk assets, most likely altcoins will follow suit.
Conclusion
The signs of a recession are growing more apparent each day. Whether it's the Sahm Rule being triggered, the yield curve inversion, rising consumer debt, or the likelihood of a Fed rate cut leading to a temporary market rally followed by a downturn, the data suggests that the economy is heading towards a recession. The prolonged yield curve inversion, lagged effects of rate hikes, NBER indicators, and the escalating consumer debt crisis are flashing warning signs that should not be ignored. Understanding these indicators can help us navigate the market more effectively and prepare for the opportunities that a recession might present.
If you found this analysis useful, make sure to give it a like and share it with others who might benefit from this insight. 👍🔄
#Recession #SahmRule $BTC
Daily Crypto Trading@DailyCryptoTrad
As promised, here's my take on the economy, inflation, and the possible recession - not the most exciting part, but it's crucial. 📚 Before we start, remember these are just my own thoughts and research, so don't use them as buy/sell signals. And if you like what you read, why not give it a like? 👍 Everyone's talking about whether we've dodged the recession. Some are even making jokes, calling it the “Most Anticipated Recession.” Let's get real. With social media, more people are talking about potential recessions. If we have indeed “avoided a recession,” it would be a first since the 2nd World War. The folks who say it's been cancelled are often the same ones cheering on a bull market and saying “this time is different.” But let's focus on the facts, not the hype from some 23-year-old who's never seen a recession and only has dollar signs (or should I say, Lambo signs) in his eyes while pushing NFTs to his followers. 🐸🖼️ First up, let's talk inflation. Has the FED beaten inflation? Not quite! The core CPI is at 4.8%, which is still 2.8% above their 2% target. The drop is slower than expected. The CPI hit 3% and looks good on paper, but if we dig into the report, we see that it was the base impact that brought inflation down. Take those out (which won't be included in the next reading), and we see inflation going UP. Look at Energy going up in June or Services less energy services at 6.2%! Now let's stick with Energy commodities for a sec. If we look at the report of U.S. Crude Oil Inventories -0.708M and the forecast was -2.440M, this means if the increase in crude is less than expected, it implies greater demand and is bullish for crude prices, which is inflationary. What happens when crude oil increases? Transportation energy inflation also goes up. If we look at CORE CPI that excludes all of this, we see 4.8%. Or the FED's favourite indicator, CORE PCE, we see 4.9%. So, how can we say that inflation is over or that we've won? Or that we're going to have a soft landing? 🎯 If the decrease is due to increased demand, this could indeed be bullish for energy prices, including crude oil. Higher demand with the same or lower supply typically leads to higher prices. Higher energy prices, in turn, can contribute to inflation. This is because energy costs are a big part of many goods and services. For example, increased oil prices can lead to higher transportation costs, which can increase the cost of goods (since it's more expensive to transport them). This can lead to higher prices for consumers, which is inflationary. These are the facts I’m laying out, and according to my analysis, we're seeing here we will have a rebound in the inflation, which the forecast also shows. But the question is, will it be higher than the expectations? 📈 What about recession? Let's make this crystal clear. Since World War II, every yield curve inversion has been followed by a recession in the following 6-18 months, and recessions are naturally tied to decreased stock market returns. This is because an inverted yield curve, where short-term interest rates are higher than long-term rates, is often seen as a sign of economic uncertainty. Investors demand higher returns for short-term bonds when they think the economy will perform poorly in the near future. This can lead to decreased investment and spending, which can trigger a recession. Recessions and Stock Market Returns: Recessions are periods when the economy shrinks, characterized by less spending, more unemployment, and lower corporate profits. These factors can lead to decreased stock market returns, as investors expect lower future earnings and become more risk-averse. And what are we seeing now as shown in the chart? We have deep Yield curve inversions as highlighted in red! So I don't believe this time is different, nor do I believe we will get a soft landing. During a recession, certain types of investments tend to perform better than others. Here are a few examples: • Government Bonds: During times of economic uncertainty, investors often flock to the safety of government bonds, especially U.S. Treasuries. • Consumer Staples Stocks: Companies that make consumer staples, like food, drinks, and household goods, often do well during recessions. This is because demand for these products tends to stay stable, even during economic downturns. • Healthcare Stocks: Like consumer staples, healthcare is a must-have, and demand for healthcare services and products often stays stable during a recession. • Utilities Stocks: Utilities are companies that provide essential services like electricity, gas, and water. These companies often have stable cash flows and can offer attractive dividend yields, making them a popular choice during recessions. • Gold and Precious Metals: Gold and other precious metals are often seen as a store of value and can do well during recessions. Investors often turn to gold as a safe haven during times of economic uncertainty. • Cash and Cash Equivalents: Holding cash or cash equivalents (like money market funds) can be a good move during a recession, as it provides flexibility and the ability to jump on investment opportunities as they pop up. (not if we get stagflation though) But what about Bitcoin? Bitcoin was born out of a recession and has never been in one, so there are two types of narratives we have to look at – is it that Bitcoin is digital gold and is a commodity? Then it would appreciate in time like gold during a recession. OR is it a software correlated with Nasdaq and the S&P 500? Then it will bottom out during a recession. No one knows this, however my observation is that Bitcoin is not mature enough to be digital gold. It's too volatile for a safe haven for investors right now; it's more of a speculative risk asset. I hope this cleared a few things up, and I know it's not the most fun thing to read, but this gives you a better idea. If it did, give me a like and a retweet. I would appreciate it! 👍🔄 #Economy #Inflation #Recession #bitcoin #crypto #SPY #DXY #NASDAQ #Cryptocurrency #YieldCurve #NFTs #FOMC #etherum
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@MySol2Squeeze probably will catch some flak for this, but i'm in the $140 camp. been stabled for a bit, and trying to stay patient.
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@JPEG_tologist @MonkeyBabyBiz @tensor_hq @DegenApeAcademy @SolanaMBS welcome fam, all amazing communities.
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Bought 4 shiny new NFTs over the last few days!
Going to hodl these for a long time. Solana is truly the best ecosystem!
@MonkeyBabyBiz @tensor_hq @DegenApeAcademy @SolanaMBS
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MBB has one of the most active Meteora channels across all of Solana/Web3 🐵🍼❤️🎯
M3M3@WEAREM3M3_
We're choosing a few NFT communities to airdrop.. Who wants some $M3M3? 👀👇
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My cousin in Lebanon lost her home. We're raising funds to cover her room costs while she rebuilds. Any help means everything.
gogetfunding.com/help-my-cousin…
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So i'm not completely sure how or when this happened but I woke up with a @MonkeyBabyBiz in my wallet . Happy Holidays let's build .
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