Mohamad Machine-Chian

My take on what's going on in Iran: two visions of national purpose that cannot coexist within a single political order.

@mb_ghalibaf Δπ_B > 100% ⇒ f(f(π)) > f(π)

Enjoy the current pump figures. With the so-called 'blockade', Soon you'll be nostalgic for $4–$5 gas. ΔO_BSOH>0 ⇒ f(f(O))>f(O)

اقتصاد ایران در آتش‌بس: کسری بودجه تورم ایران قبل از آغاز جنگ، بحرانی بود. آیا الگوی جنگ ۱۲ روزه این بار هم تکرار خواهد شد؟ در نخستین قسمت چرتکه، محمد ماشین‌چیان اقتصاد ایران در آتش‌بس را بررسی می‌کند. چرتکه این هفته را در یوتوب ایران‌اینترنشنال تماشا کنید. youtu.be/QQVsKwmMo8I

اقتصاد ایران در آتش‌بس: بازگشایی بورس بازگشایی بورس تهران تا کی عقب خواهد افتاد؟ در اقتصادی که بانک‌ها و خودروسازها زیان‌ده هستند، بازگشایی بازار بدون شرکت‌های فولادی و پتروشیمی چه بر سر بازار خواهد آورد؟در نخستین قسمت چرتکه، محمد ماشین‌چیان اقتصاد ایران در آتش‌بس را بررسی می‌کند. برنامه چرتکه را امروز ساعت ۱۵:۳۰ به‌وقت تهران تماشا کنید

اقتصاد ایران در آتش‌بس بازارهای جهانی با کاهش قیمت نفت و رشد بورس‌ها به اعلام آتش‌بس واکنش مثبت نشان داده‌اند، اما اقتصاد ایران، شرایط متفاوتی دارد. در نخستین قسمت چرتکه، محمد ماشین‌چیان اقتصاد ایران در آتش‌بس را بررسی می‌کند. چرتکه این هفته را شنبه ساعت ۱۵:۳۰ به‌وقت تهران تماشا کنید.

اقتصاد ایران در آتش‌بس آتش‌بس برای دنیا یعنی نفت ارزان‌تر و جبران زیان بازارهای سهام. برای ایران یعنی لحظه‌ای که ۴۰ روز بحران منجمدشده، یک‌جا آزاد می‌شود: بورسی که بدون سنگین‌وزن‌هایش باز خواهد شد، دلاری که نرخ پیش از جنگش بی‌معناست، و تورمی که جنگ فقط صدایش را خفه کرده بود. iranintl.com/202604092723?s…

The Iran war was a sobering reminder to the global economy that the world had long neglected one of its most critical chokepoints, allowing Iran to wipe out trillions of dollars from global markets by closing the Strait of Hormuz. @bozorgmehr explains. iranintl.com/en/202604092423

The ceasefire in the Iran war eased global oil markets and may finally reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But for Iran, the truce exposes an economic crisis the war had temporarily masked, with weaker fundamentals and fewer tools to respond.✍️@MamadMachine iranintl.com/en/202604097047

A US oil waiver is boosting Iran’s exports but keeping the money out of Tehran’s reach while undercutting China’s dominance. Iran International's @MamadMachine explains.

The arrest of dozens of IRGC-linked money changers in the United Arab Emirates is one of the most serious blows yet to Tehran’s sanctions-evasion network, laying bare how heavily the Islamic Republic has depended on Dubai as an economic lifeline. Sources familiar with the matter told Iran International that UAE authorities detained dozens of money changers tied to financial entities linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, shut down associated companies and closed their offices. Mohammad Machine-Chian, a senior economic journalist at Iran International, said the UAE remains Iran’s most important economic conduit after China. “The UAE is Iran’s most critical economic lifeline after China,” he said. He said Dubai’s free zones host hundreds of Iranian-linked shell companies used to mask oil and petrochemical sales, launder proceeds and channel hard currency back to Tehran. Bilateral trade has hovered between $16 billion and $28 billion in recent years, with Iranian non-oil exports alone reaching roughly $6 billion to $7 billion annually, according to Machine-Chian. iranintl.com/en/202603319804

The arrest of dozens of IRGC-linked money changers in the United Arab Emirates is one of the most serious blows yet to Tehran’s sanctions-evasion network, laying bare how heavily the Islamic Republic has depended on Dubai as an economic lifeline. Sources familiar with the matter told Iran International that UAE authorities detained dozens of money changers tied to financial entities linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, shut down associated companies and closed their offices. According to @miadmaleki , a former senior US Treasury sanctions strategist and now a senior fellow at FDD, the UAE is not just one sanctions-evasion hub among many. “The UAE is the single most critical jurisdiction in the Iranian regime’s sanctions-evasion architecture,” Maleki said. Dubai’s exchange houses have long given the IRGC and the Quds Force access to the hard currency needed to finance proxy groups including Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis and militias in Iraq. The detention of trusted IRGC-linked money changers threatens networks that took years to build. “These trust-based sarraf (money changer) relationships, bank accounts and corporate structures are not quickly replaceable,” Maleki said. iranintl.com/en/202603319804

Khameneism is no longer an ideology associated with one leader. It is a system of governance—self-reinforcing, expansive, and resistant to change...

The picture is becoming clearer

How India appears to be the winner of U.S. waivers on #Iran’s oil. By @MamadMachine #OOTT iranintl.com/en/20260327925…

Washington’s sanctions waiver, introduced during the Iran war to ease oil supply pressure, is channeling discounted crude away from China and toward India, strengthening energy ties with New Delhi. iranintl.com/en/202603279252

Early signs of dollarization in #Iran's economy. An important piece by @MamadMachine iranintl.com/en/202603242827

Iran’s economy is no longer merely experiencing high inflation; it is exhibiting the structural symptoms of a nation losing faith in its own currency and facing a shift in its monetary regime. iranintl.com/en/202603242827

گفته بودم، تنها چیزی که می‌تواند آمریکا را برای پایان جنگ تحت فشار بگذارد، بازار جهانی و قیمت نفت است. آدم کوبیسی بازده اوراق ده ساله را به این معادله افزوده و می‌گوید، بازده اوراق نمی‌تواند به 5% برسد چون هزینه بهره دولت را سرسام آور کرده و بازارها را به هم می‌ریزد. متغیر مهمی است، اما اغراق آمیز مطرح شده. کل بدهی حدود 30 تریلیون دلار است اما اوراق شاید نیمی از این مقدار و اوراق ده ساله باز بخشی از این بدهی است. در نهایت به فهم من، این یک متغیر به تنهایی آنقدر که ایشان گفته تاثیرگذار نیست. کماکان معتقدم که در این عملیات (و همینطور نتایج مورد انتظارش) ، نقش فرماندهی اقتصادی بسنت، از فرماندهی نظامی مهمتر و تعیین کننده تر است.

Iran is the head of the snake for global terrorism, and through President Trump’s Operation Epic Fury, we are winning this critical fight at an even faster pace than anticipated. In response to Iran’s terrorist attacks against global energy infrastructure, the Trump Administration will continue to deploy America’s economic and military might to maximize the flow of energy to the world, strengthen global supply, and seek to ensure market stability. Today, the Department of the Treasury is issuing a narrowly tailored, short-term authorization permitting the sale of Iranian oil currently stranded at sea. At present, sanctioned Iranian oil is being hoarded by China on the cheap. By temporarily unlocking this existing supply for the world, the United States will quickly bring approximately 140 million barrels of oil to global markets, expanding the amount of worldwide energy and helping to relieve the temporary pressures on supply caused by Iran. In essence, we will be using the Iranian barrels against Tehran to keep the price down as we continue Operation Epic Fury. This temporary, short-term authorization is strictly limited to oil that is already in transit and does not allow new purchases or production. Further, Iran will have difficulty accessing any revenue generated and the United States will continue to maintain maximum pressure on Iran and its ability to access the international financial system. So far, the Trump Administration has been working to bring around 440 million additional barrels of oil to the global market, undercutting Iran’s ability to leverage its disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump’s pro-energy agenda has driven U.S. oil and gas production to record levels, strengthening energy security and lowering fuel costs. Any short-term disruption now will ultimately translate into longer-term economic gains for Americans – because there is no prosperity without security.

While the people of Iran welcome Nowruz, the ayatollahs are doubling down on a desperate gamble. From striking neighbors' energy infrastructure to closing the Strait of Hurmuz, the regime wants the world to feel the pain at the pump to force a Western retreat. Mohamad Machine-Chian explains.

وزیر خزانه‌داری آمریکا اعلام کرد واشینگتن در حال بررسی کاهش محدودیت‌ها بر نفت ایران برای کمک به تثبیت بازارهای جهانی انرژی است. این اظهارات در حالی مطرح شده که پس از حملات اخیر به زیرساخت‌های انرژی، قیمت نفت برنت از ۱۱۵ دلار عبور کرده است. گفت‌وگو با محمد ماشین‌چیان، عضو تحریریه ایران‌اینترنشنال