MiSoe

@hidatulfikri @Kutekians Pendekatan lainnya itu kaya apa ka

@Kutekians Unpopular opinion: Analisa market bukan cuma Fundamental & Teknikal, tapi juga ada berbagai pendekatan lain yang bisa kita explore. ✌️

Setuju. Fundamental vs Teknikal ini sebetulnya debat klasik yang berakar dari 2 basis keyakinan (hipotesis) berbeda. Fundamental berdiri di atas satu keyakinan: Market TIDAK SELALU EFISIEN. Ada gap antara harga dan nilai intrinsik, dan di sanalah ALPHA-nya. Tapi ada kelemahan struktural: data finansial itu lagging by nature. Laporan keuangan adalah rekam jejak masa lalu. Technical berdiri di atas premis yang berbeda: Price reflects everything. Semua informasi (fundamental, sentimen, bahkan yang belum published) sudah ter-embed di price action. Dan bahkan price bisa bergerak lebih dulu, karena ada yang frontrun. Bukan sekadar tarik garis. Ini membaca agregasi keputusan seluruh market participants. Ini dikenal sebagai perdebatan Efficient Market Hypothesis. Fundamental investor menyerang semi-strong form efficiency. Technician justru konsisten dengan weak-form efficiency. The answer has always been: COMBINE IT. Use fundamental analysis to determine WHAT (to buy or not to buy.) Use technical analysis to determine WHEN (to enter, to derisk, to take profit, to cut loss). Teknikal buat saya itu lebih ke risk management framework daripada tools prediksi harga.

@pinkbourbon8898 Nice bumi pfp

yes!! keep on waiting.

@profesor_saham Alhamdulillah usd idr 17100

Jadi gimana kabar porto kalian ?

@saptaipb Tpi gw sukanya yang hyper growth perusahaannya, berharap dari capital gain. Klo ini cenderung untuk value stocks sih

lesson 1, jika ada rilis lapkeu, paling mudah, pasti saya langsung cek pertama likuiditas nya, Pertama kali Cek Cash Ratio contohnya $ITMG total cash 807.946 total liabilitas 497.732 nah cash yang dia punya mampu cover semua utang dia, keren banget, ini indikasi keuangan nya sehat easy kan,

@CFALEVEL99 kebetulan Rp 4.917.500 juga berasal dari 17.500 lembar * (281 Rp) dividend

@CFALEVEL99 Kebetulan hari ini payment date BBCA, apakah kebetulan 8 april ada tweet ini?

Dividen segini tapi floating loss 4x lipat. Coba tebak saham apa?

@pinkbourbon8898 @rickyho_1989 Alah , analisis dia jg kebanyakan copy pasta dari analis luar. Ofcourse without giving credits , but this is twitter ig. At least buat yang males filtering analis luar , ada insight baru

@rickyho_1989 Regulators did the work. FTSE Russell did their review. You just… didn’t update your analysis. Wild how the market rewards people who actually follow the data. FTSE: done. MSCI May: next. One down, one more to go. $JCI #NabiPalsuInvestasi

@Kutekians Coping mechanism adalah komoditas kita dijual dengan usd , jadi pelemahan kurs jdi tempat makan para pemilik usaha komoditi (rakyat entr aj la baru dipikirin)

Rupiah melemah 24% terhadap Ringgit dalam 10 tahun. Lucunya, 23%-nya terjadi hanya dalam 15 bulan terakhir. 1 Ringgit: • Maret 2015: ~3,500 Rupiah. • Maret 2024: ~3,300 Rupiah. • Maret 2026: ~4,300 Rupiah. Return IHSG 15 bulan terakhir: • Dalam Rupiah 1.8%. • Dalam USD -3%. • Dalam Ringgit -13.6%. Orang Malaysia bisa beat IHSG 13.6% 1 tahun terakhir cukup dengan taro aset mereka di cash (Ringgit). Apa yang berubah dalam 2 tahun terakhir? Malaysia berhasil capture 2 MEGATREND sekaligus: AI supply chain dan supply chain diversification dari China. Penang jadi ASEAN's Silicon Valley. AMD, Intel, AI data centers masuk. FDI masuk, convert ke Ringgit, demand struktural tercipta. GDP akselerasi +5.2% YoY. Ini bukan soal global. Ini soal siapa yang punya narrative reform, dan siapa yang belum. Rupiah melemah bukan karena global. Faktanya Rupiah melemah terhadap USD, bahkan ketika DXY melemah. Satu selat jaraknya. Tapi jarak narrativenya makin lebar setiap bulan. Sampai Indonesia deliver narrative reform yang comparable, atau lebih baik, divergence ini belum ada alasan struktural untuk berbalik. Happy Sunday!

@Cheytax_1 All right. Thanks for the clear-up. Will discuss this with my team and do a feasibility analysis and improvement adjustment Possibly might also do a side tactical portfolio project which tracks international ETFs such as the SPY/ACWI with this as the main active strategy 🙏

Hmm.. I would say.. basically it's poker math.. The model isn't predicting exact outcomes, it's estimating edge (win rate = 40%) The 'expected return' is just: How often you win × how much you win − how often you lose × how much you lose > edge (p_correct − 0.5) × payoff structure And do it again and again 1500 times, then calculate the average of those 1500 paths!

WRONG IS PART OF THE GAME. Lately, a lot of portfolios are getting absolutely wrecked. Down 20%, 50%, even 75%. If we could learn a thing or two from why is that happening? Simple.. humans are wired to avoid being wrong. Nobody wants to be wrong in this world, hate it or love it, that’s just nature or by design.. "Siapa sih yang mau salah?" You see someone down 30–40% in a "safe" name like ICBP or even BBCA. Low volatility type of stock, cash generating, ok growth is not as usual but.. hey.. low expected return too tho, daily movement average is at 1-2%, how come someone is down nearly half their money there? Not the stocks that are bad, just how they react to the market that is wrong. Instead of cutting, people start justifying: "Businessnya masih ada kok" "Kata si ini mau dikerek ke xxxx" "Bottom lah udah max fear" "Dividend ada kok" Technically, not wrong. But in the public market, there are two axes. Just look at the formula for Total Shareholder Return or TSR: ((P1 – P0) + D) / P0 P1 is latest price. P0 is average price you paid. D is dividend. The company pays you a dividend. But the deviation between price movement and dividend is apples to oranges. Price can swing ±30%, while the dividend gives you just 5-10%. If the stock hit -30% drawdown, that dividend becomes irrelevant. - No matter how good your strategy, how solid your thesis, how impressive your RMSE, CI, or IR… eventually, you will be wrong. And.. you can be wrong all the time and still make life changing money. The only condition? You admit when you're wrong. Admit it that humans are DOGSHIT at investing. Dogshit at predicting where the market goes tomorrow. We're all stupid. Not just you and me, all of us. The longer you're in this market, the more you realize that "The market is RANDOM". - We ran a simulation, just on the JCI. Assumed we're betting on the index. Wrong 60% of the time, right 40%. In one scenario, when we were wrong, we did nothing. In the other, still wrong 60%, right 40%, but when we were wrong, we cut at 50% of the forecasted move. *Example: you bet JCI will go up 5%. It goes down 5%. So when the loss hits -2.5%, you get out.* The "stubborn and feeling like the smartest person in the room" strategy.. ofc smoked. The "Okay, I'm wrong, move on, we're all dogshit at predicting price” strategy.. generated ridiculous CAGR. 19.89% from a single ticker… JCI. So what's the catch? You can be wrong most of the time and still make life changing money. Your performance beats 99.99% of investors out there. Your alpha is unmatched. You make index returns look like SHIT.. all if you... admit when you're wrong. Admitting you're wrong is just as important as picking the right company to buy. You take all these classes, paying 5 to 50 million for this or that, but when it's time to execute, you act like it's your first day in the market. "I'm right, the market is wrong" Stop attending expensive classes if you think you'll be right all the time. Useless. - And drawdown management *the thing most people take lightly* ends up destroying long term CAGR. Think of the market as binary: predictable vs unpredictable. When it's predictable, you play, fine, you make billions, maybe trillions, whatever. But when it's in the unpredictable phase, you still bet. And when you're wrong, you don't admit it. That's the crucial part. Why?? Because when the market becomes predictable again.. you're no longer playing with the same capital. - "Jangan cut loss" "Kalau company-nya bagus, akan balik kok" Not wrong... But we all know what it does to the CAGR.

@Cheytax_1 Appreciate it ! Another question , how does the model determine the "forecasted move/expected return" for the overall strategy since we need to stick 0.5 cut? 🙏

Thanks! - It only tracks capital appreciation With dividends reinvested over the past 16 years (testing period), JCI returned only about 109% from today's level. The spread between dividend reinvested returns and pure capital gains is roughly 2.7%, which in line with the average JCI yield over the past 15 years around 2.88% The CAGR cost of that silly strategy I mentioned above is -19%. So even with dividends reinvested, it's still down about 16.3% annualized

@tigorsiagian Saya siap pinjam utang bank dengan bunga 12%/ tahun dan mengambil sisa keuntungan 18-28%/tahun. Infinite money glitch

reksa dana saham average 30-40% per tahun? LOL.

@boahamncook Semua orang berharap bs trading for living. Klo gw sih harapannya investing for living

Trading for living modal 10jt berharap 200rb sehari konsisten? kita lihat pada hari ke berapa rungkad.

@stockanalis @MYasfika $EIDO kan bisa di short

@MYasfika dari kemarin cari-cari ga nemu, ini tuh dia ngeshort pake instrumen apa ya?

Izinnn sekarang dah rebound boss🤣 jadi masih di short apa enggak nih $IDXnya?

@Kyoka22_ Antusiasme tinggi , pendapatan bisa saja dengan mudah tembus 11 T definisi beli high geowth stock .

Nah ini yg jadi problemnya , kalau diliat juga di IG internetrakyat nya banyak yg bully karna ada yg ngeluh gk sampe sampe padhal udah regist dari awal nov, kaya terdrngar sengaja ditahan tahan padahal kan goalnya 5jt subscriber akhir tahun, tapi kalo dipikir pikir, orang byk ngeluh aja artinya antusiasme orng orng pada tinggi, mencoba berhusnudzon ajahhh

The comeback is gonna be epic. -40% free float (liquid dan mudah diperdagangkan) -fundamentally proven ( bukan macam saham konglo dgn PE minus/ ratusan) -mcap 11t doang (butuh dana yang tidak besar buat naikin harganya) -disrupsi sektor telkom di indonesia dgn IRA, cukup bayar 100k-149k bisa dapetin inet wifi kecepatan 100mbps (sangat jauh lebih efisien ketika ada krisis, gk perlu dalam 1 keluarga bayar kuota masing masing hp yg biasanya 50k perbulan masing masing hp)

@lovamarciano @Kyoka22_ Saya domisili 2 lokasi jakut kelapa gading dan tangsel bsd lama , 22nya saya rencana mau ganti klo sudah tersedia tapi 22nya area belum tersedia. Tinggal nunggu waktu sj

@MiSuIO @Kyoka22_ area mana om?

@christianvctrs anjir expense rationya 6% WKWKKWKW. Makan kenyang trimegah asset management

Wah serius 46% per tahun? Kalo lempar 10M auto jadi 14.6M dong setahun?

@Gieehad amin, saya juga berharap demikian pakde

@MiSuIO mudah mudahan cepet yah distribusinya. kebantu banget pasti sih internet cuman Rp 100 Ribu in this economy

ada yang udah pasang Internet rakyat di rumah ? boleh review kinerja FWA sinyalnya ? Apakah beneran sampai ke gang gang berhasil.

@Gieehad Ini tempatku di jakut

@MiSuIO Ini maksudnya udah dapat device nya bang ? harusnya se jawa bisa. dia jaringannya via infra Rel kereta api