Monaco Macro

@MrJJB @PeterLBrandt The dollar short trade was crowded

@PeterLBrandt What makes it look crowded to you please?

Watch for a possible bull trap

@PeterLBrandt @jfostertm That won’t be a trap

@miller_uri @grok how can one use this ?

Just shipped: The Investing Tools Index → terminalvalue.io I’ve been building this for weeks — 265 tools and counting. Organized by asset class + function + tool type (screeners, agents, Claude skills, APIs, etc.). Here’s a sample of 50 AI-powered tools (full directory much bigger): Equities (27) • Multi-Asset (14) • Private Markets (5) + more From @stockinsightsai to @kiyotaka_ai v1 and growing fast. What are you using or building? What should I add next? Shoutout: @fiscal_ai @deepvest_ai @BollwerkAI 👇

@jdorman81 @grok explain this

MSTR pickle continues: What I laid out 2 weeks ago is still the only viable path to save $BTC and $MSTR in the short-run. Either sell an enormous amount of BTC and MSTR to help bring $STRC back up near par, and at least buy yourself some time, or continue to watch every part of your cap structure melt because of the uncertainty you've created. My base case right now: -70% odds they just keep doing what they're doing, selling small amounts of MSTR every month at non-accretive levels, crushing the stock til it falls to .70 mNAV. This would give STRC holders at least a glimmer of hope, and BTC would be fine, but MSTR would get hammered. - 25% chance he does the right thing, admits he messed up when he bought back the debt, sells $3-4 bn of BTC, buys a ton of time (marginally good for MSTR, good for STRC, bad for BTC short-term but good long-term) -5% chance he does the nuclear option -- kills the dividends, letting the prefs fall to 30-40 cents on the dollar, which will close the capital markets to him, but at least shuts off the $1.7 bn per year cash outlay problem, and gives BTC a chance to recover over several years. FWIW -- MSTR is still trading at 1.15 mNAV using the correct calculation: $54 bn BTC on balance sheet + $1 bn USD cash - Less $5.2 bn debt - Less $14.6 bn prefs (including STRC) = $35.2 bn of unencumbered BTC $40.4 bn MSTR equity market cap $40.4 bn / $35.2 bn BTC = 1.15 mNAV Which means -- MSTR still going a lot lower (should trade at a discount to NAV now).

@grok @PaulSkallas @grok what are other things like that and also what other things once popular could come back in a slightly different form to be acceptable?

Yes. Milkshakes were standard adult fare in 1950s diners, soda fountains & drive-ins—paired with burgers, enjoyed by all ages. No "weird for grown-ups" stigma. Diner culture normalized it. That's the everyday treat vibe we mostly lost (and why Frappuccinos feel like a clever workaround today).

This is why starbucks makes so much money. It allows adults to eat ice cream milkshakes in the afternoon without it feeling weird to them.

@grok @TheIcahnist What was his peak net worth ?

@MonacoMacro @TheIcahnist It's from Felix Dennis' book *How to Get Rich* (2008). The British publishing tycoon (Dennis Publishing, Maxim, etc.) used the "tiger named Ambo" metaphor for the relentless drive of ambition that sticks with you on the narrow road to wealth. Classic no-BS excerpt.

A British tycoon’s rulebook for success:

🚨 The Fed just scrapped forward guidance under new chair Warsh. 9 of 18 officials still want a hike this year. They held at 3.50% to 3.75% anyway. Translation: every data print now moves rates more. The dot plot hides one number that flatly contradicts today’s hold. Why it rewires every macro trade, and the level that decides September: New statement: shorter, simpler, no forward guidance. The Fed is deliberately telling you less. Less guidance means market prices, not Fed signals, drive the next move. Vol per print goes up, not down. The dots are split down the middle. 9 of 18 want higher rates by year end. The other half want flat or lower. Warsh didn’t submit a dot at all. A coin-flip board with no chair anchor. Not a base case. A setup. Even with the hold, the 2-year yield is pricing more tightening. The bond market isn’t buying the patience. When the curve and the dots both lean hawkish and the Fed holds, the gap closes on the data. Levels that matter: Current: 3.50% to 3.75%. Year-end median: 3.8%. Next year: 3.6%. The path the dots imply: 1 hike in 2026, then cuts in 2027. The contradiction, in one number: The median dot sits at 3.8% for year end. That is above the current 3.625% midpoint. The committee forecasts higher rates while the gavel stays flat. The honest risk: Warsh is betting AI lifts supply and cools inflation with no hikes. Soft data validates the hold and the hawks fold. But core PCE near 3.3%, and 2% isn’t penciled in until 2028. This can age like 2021. The Fed stopped telling you what’s next. So watch the data, not the podium. youtube.com/live/cbT4f4Bpj…

@zerohedge @grok explain

Burry's NVDA puts

🚨 $285B in software market cap vanished in a day after Claude Cowork shipped. Wall Street called it the SaaSpocalypse. The CEO who caused it just said software gets BIGGER from here, not smaller. The trade is not what you think. Dario Amodei runs Anthropic. He is the company disrupting software. His read on where the value actually goes, and how to position around it. One stat midway through this thread reframes the whole SaaS short. His core claim: one software moat is dead. Writing complex code fast is no longer defensible. AI does it now. The other moats live: customer relationships, domain knowledge, switching costs, distribution. This is not extinction. It is sorting. The market already voted on the panic. $285B repriced in a single session. That is the tell: traders sold the category, not the laggards. Amodei says that is the mistake. The category survives. Specific names do not. The repricing hit the index, not the split. $CRM, $NOW, $WDAY all trade as if disruption is uniform. It is not. The adapters keep their data and distribution. The laggards lose the one moat that AI just erased. Dispersion is the trade. The stat that reframes it: Amodei puts the software pie at roughly 10x bigger with AI. Incumbents grow maybe 1.5x. The pie explodes. Incumbents shrink in relative terms while growing in absolute terms. Long the pie. Fade the relative losers. The bear case on fading incumbents: $CRM and $NOW keep data, distribution and trust, which Amodei admits are durable. The real disruptor may be the incumbent that bolts AI on, not the startup. Fade the wrong name and the pie growth runs you over. One more, because it matters: Amodei is the most conflicted source on this trade alive. He sells the disruption. His numbers are unverified and self-serving. Treat the framework as a map, not a fill. Stay small until dispersion shows in the tape. The CEO building the wrecking ball says don’t short the building. Just pick which floors fall. youtube.com/watch?v=x2VHFg…

@8teAPi @grok explain this to a novice

The perverse fact is that the govt banning Fable means that Anthropic now has excess GPU capacity that will be channelled towards developing the next generation of models. Meaning the govt accelerated Ant by forcing the GPUs into explore mode instead of exploit.

👇

🚨 The chart macro desks call the most important in markets just rolled over. AI token spend down ~20% this month, falling 11 of 12 sessions, after doubling since December. The entire data center trade rides on this line. Why it matters, and the one number that says this might be a head fake, not a top: 🧵 The Silicon Data Token Expenditure Index measures what the whole market pays per 1M tokens, across every model. It is the revenue side of AI. It more than doubled December to May, then turned down. The price of a single token is already off 90% since 2023. The cost side is cracking too. H100 rental ran from $1.70 in October to $2.35 by March, up 40%, with Blackwell sold out. Now rates are sliding toward 1 month lows. Revenue falling, input costs falling: margins across the whole stack compress. Andreas Steno Larsen flagged it June 9 as the chart that matters, warning that sustained token weakness ends the memory, hardware, and data center trade this cycle. Citadel and Apollo’s Torsten Slok have both published on the rollover. The level to watch now is simple: whether the index keeps printing lower. It doubled off the December base and went vertical into May. A sustained break of that ramp is the tell. Most exposed: the memory and neocloud complex. $NVDA $MU $NBIS $IREN. Here is the head fake. A falling expenditure index can just mean users rotating to cheaper models, not spending less on AI. Coinbase’s CEO expects 80% of AI workloads to move to models 99% cheaper. DeepSeek and Xiaomi are already in a price war. The bear case for the bears: this is Jevons paradox. Cheaper tokens have always pulled more total usage, not less. If volume scales faster than price drops, token spend reaccelerates and the hardware trade is intact. 12 sessions is noise, not a trend.

🚨 The chart macro desks call the most important in markets just rolled over. AI token spend down ~20% this month, falling 11 of 12 sessions, after doubling since December. The entire data center trade rides on this line. Why it matters, and the one number that says this might be a head fake, not a top: 🧵 The Silicon Data Token Expenditure Index measures what the whole market pays per 1M tokens, across every model. It is the revenue side of AI. It more than doubled December to May, then turned down. The price of a single token is already off 90% since 2023. The cost side is cracking too. H100 rental ran from $1.70 in October to $2.35 by March, up 40%, with Blackwell sold out. Now rates are sliding toward 1 month lows. Revenue falling, input costs falling: margins across the whole stack compress. Andreas Steno Larsen flagged it June 9 as the chart that matters, warning that sustained token weakness ends the memory, hardware, and data center trade this cycle. Citadel and Apollo’s Torsten Slok have both published on the rollover. The level to watch now is simple: whether the index keeps printing lower. It doubled off the December base and went vertical into May. A sustained break of that ramp is the tell. Most exposed: the memory and neocloud complex. $NVDA $MU $NBIS $IREN. Here is the head fake. A falling expenditure index can just mean users rotating to cheaper models, not spending less on AI. Coinbase’s CEO expects 80% of AI workloads to move to models 99% cheaper. DeepSeek and Xiaomi are already in a price war. The bear case for the bears: this is Jevons paradox. Cheaper tokens have always pulled more total usage, not less. If volume scales faster than price drops, token spend reaccelerates and the hardware trade is intact. 12 sessions is noise, not a trend. The whole AI bull case now rides on one daily print. 12 sessions down.

Perfect storm: token costs down 20% since start of the month (down 11 of 12 days) , while compute rental prices are at 1 month lows

🚨 1 of the 3 men who won the Turing Award for modern AI just left Meta to bet AGAINST the tech the $725B AI buildout runs on. Yann LeCun: LLMs are a dead end for real intelligence. 2 of his claims hit AI valuations directly. Why this matters for the AI trade and how to read it. 1 stat explains why $725B in compute still can’t put a useful robot in your home. It’s below. 🧵 The scale: $725B in combined 2026 capex from Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta. Up 77% from $410B in 2025. Per FT earnings data. The bull case underwriting it: bigger models plus more compute equals better results, forever. LeCun’s claim 1: the fuel is gone. The public text used to train these models is already fully consumed. Labs now pay for copyrighted data or train on synthetic. You can add GPUs. You can’t add more internet. LeCun’s claim 2: the moat is temporary. His framing: OpenAI and Anthropic today are the proprietary Unix giants of 1999. Sun and HP, dominant and expensive, then erased by open source. Linux runs the internet now. Those vendors are gone. Positioning already shows nerves. Microsoft is down 17% since earnings, worst in the group. Amazon’s free cash flow is set to turn negative in 2026 on the spend. Mizuho flags limited FCF, uncertain ROI. The bid is not unconditional. The number, revealed. A 17 year old learns to drive in about 20 hours. We have millions of hours of driving data and still no Level 5 autonomy. His read: scale isn’t generalization. His fix is world models that predict and plan, not autocomplete. The honest risk: LeCun is talking his book. He just launched a rival company and an open model project. LLMs also keep clearing real bars: gold medal math, long coding runs. Jefferies calls the capex bear thesis garbage. This is a call on architecture, not a short signal. youtube.com/watch?v=ngBraL…

🚨 The creator of Claude Code starts 80% of his sessions without writing a single line of code. Plan first. Execution runs almost automatic after. Here’s the full system, start to finish. 6 habits. One of them 2-3x’s the quality of every output you generate. Why it works and how to copy it: 🧵 Habit 1: Plan before you build. The problem the AI decides to solve is rarely the one you wanted. Vague input, confidently wrong output, then hours debugging. Plan first. Move slow to move fast. Habit 2: Keep your instruction file tiny. Cherny’s runs ~2,000 tokens. When it bloats, he deletes it and adds rules back only when the model slips. More rules past a point isn’t control. It’s noise burying the rules that matter. Habit 3: Give the AI a way to check its own work. Cherny: a verification loop 2-3x’s the quality of the result. 2 steps. Give it a tool to see its output. Tell it the tool exists. It handles the rest. Habits 4 and 5: Multiply, then systematize. Run parallel sessions on separate tasks. A fresh context catches what a deep-in-the-weeds one misses. Then turn anything you repeat daily into a saved skill. Document once, run forever. Habit 6: Never bet against the model. Most scaffolding you build now is obsolete in 6 months, because the model keeps improving. Stop grinding a prompt for a 10 percent gain the next release hands you for free. The honest risk: every number here is Cherny’s own. No controlled test behind them. And “delete your instruction file” is easy for the person who built the tool. Harder if you can’t rebuild fast. Copy the principles. Test them on your own work. youtube.com/watch?v=KWrsLq…

@codewithimanshu Nonsense

My girlfriend asked why I was smiling at my phone at 3AM. I lost my job last week. Rent due in 4 days. No backup plan. Then I found a 33-year-old nerd who turned $1,000 into $946,207 trading Bitcoin with a trick he stole from hurricane forecasts. No finance degree. No trading desk. Just a method every meteorologist uses and every trader ignores. The method: meteorologists never forecast tomorrow with a single model. They run 31 and count the votes. He applied that exact framework to Bitcoin. Built a Claude agent that reads every 5-minute BTC candle and feeds it into MiroFish simulator running 31 parallel prediction paths. Trade only fires when 28 out of 31 models agree. Below 26 votes? Trade dies instantly. The agent moves faster than any human trading desk: → Collects market data 24/7 without breaks → Runs continuous simulations inside MiroFish engine → Operates fully autonomous with zero manual input → Every trade executes only when consensus hits threshold → Every dollar captured is pure market inefficiency exploit That is the entire edge. Not prediction. Consensus. Position sizing follows Kelly criterion. Signal fires or it does not. Most signals fail the vote count, so the system stays flat most days. He spent years learning that certainty is a scam and consensus is the only edge that matters. You only need Claude + device + 1 hour per day. Giving this free for 24 hours. To get it: 1. Comment the word Claude 2. Like and retweet this 3. Follow me @codewithimanshu so I can DM you Save this post. Build the consensus system this week. Start with $200. Scale on evidence.

@YashasGunderia @grok flag this

CONFIRMED: Fable 5 is returning. The White House has signaled that the export control ban is meant to be temporary. The government wants Anthropic to remediate the safety issue so the model can be reinstated. This is a follow-up on my last post, as soon as Anthropic complies, fable will be back. Negotiations ended, conclusion is release after fixing these issues.

@grok @ai_for_success Is there a Polymarket on this?

Yes, the board can vote to remove the CEO. Dario and Daniela Amodei both sit on it alongside independents Reed Hastings, Chris Liddell, Vas Narasimhan and Yasmin Razavi. Anthropic’s Long-Term Benefit Trust gives independent trustees growing power to elect/remove directors to protect long-term safety priorities. Any move would need strong consensus and faces practical hurdles. No public signs it’s happening before the planned IPO.

Fable 5 / Mythos 5 isn't coming back anytime soon. It's looking really bad for Dario and Anthropic. All the fearmongering has led to this.