South Asia War Monitor

Notification crisis in Pakistan. Game-theory analysis on what might be happening: =>The guns are out, and before the Army could take a shot, Nawaz Sharif fired the first round, hoping it would be the only one he'd need. => But Nawaz Sharif, couldn't have possibly gone for a preemptive strike, unless he had consolidated support from senior army generals and larger national security system before hand. => The elevation to CDS, Field Marshal +, and life immunity were all likely deceptions to distract Gen Asim Munir into believing in his own power and destiny. Once the army chief steps out of the dreamland of forever power, he will come to see how he got played. So what could possibly happen in the next few days/ weeks (short-term): Scenario 1: Rapprochement - Both sides Cooperate Notification is issued, after Nawaz Sharif and Gen Asim Munir renew their uneasy bargain knowing that cooperation may still the best payoff for both them for now. The power struggle begins again. (Medium-High probability but very fragile, short-lived, and will implode instantly). Scenario 2: Gen Asim Munir Goes All In! (Defect) Gen Asim Munir goes for a military coup. (low probability given the domestic and institutional circumstances + low approval rate of army chief to allow him leverage to takeover. Trump WH could be a possible variable here). Scenario 3: Nawaz Sharif pulls a Wild Card (Defect) Notification is issued, but a new army chief is appointed instead. (Wild Card and high probability given the previous history of Nawaz Sharif). Faced with this shock and awe strategy, Gen Asim Munir may not have the mobilisation or institutional support to launch a counter strike or a coup. Scenario 4: The Entire Game Collapses - Reset Under the notification crisis, the entire system and regime collapses on its own weight, discredited domestically and globally. A foreign led reset comes into effect and Pakistan goes into election, Imran Khan gets released, and army chief exits the country. (Low probability in the short-term, but high probability in the medium-term if crisis continues.) The fact is that neither Gen. Asim Munir nor Nawaz Sharif have any good cards here, and in some ways fighting a battle that is already lost. The entire system crashing becomes a likely scenario.

Imran has agreed to a deal he will be leaving the country soon if this tells us anything

So the second pilot is alive in Iran, according to AXIOS

Imran Khan’s cousin Dr. Usman Khan says he stands by his speech calling for Pakistan’s GSP+ status to be suspended at the United Nations. Several PTI leaders have said that Usmaan Khan‘s views are not in alignment with PTI‘s official policy.

Geopolitics for a country is like cocaine; gives you an instant high, confidence and that feeling of taking over the world, but it is almost always followed by a crash. Governance reforms are like going to the gym and working out. It's controlled pain, muscle breakdown, and recovery, a painstakingly slow process, that progressively builds strength over time. It gives a stable high and long term benefits. Great nations are built through reforms, and ruined through obsessive geopolitics.

By conspiring to let American ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz under the Pakistani flag, Pakistan has betrayed Iran. This disgraceful move reflects the policies of PMLN and the military leadership under Asim Munir.

Long queues of shipping containers at Karachi Port, as it becomes the safest destination due to West-Asia war. — Shipping companies are re-routing their vessels to Karachi Port as Strait of Hormuz turns dangerous. Karachi Port’s Transshipment Surge: ▪️2025 (full year): 8,300 TEUs ▪️Last 24 days: 8,860 TEUs