Travis Kirk
965 posts

Travis Kirk
@TravisKirkFlow
Husband. Father. Engineer. Investor.
Orlando, FL Присоединился Şubat 2021
240 Подписки175 Подписчики

@VivekGRamaswamy Vivek really out her quoting Borat 😹
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@nejatian Crazy that there’s not more exposure and interaction with this post.
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@clkleinmonaco Would you recommend owning BCI as a play closely related to BCOM?
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I trade individual commodities which I carefully chose according to our s&d analysis. That being said, all commodities are about to move materially higher. That thing #BCOM is heading twds 200

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@burrytracker @Barchart This is sweet spot for the LEAPS.
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Flight delayed on tarmac. Missed our connection. Based on the other flights available, which were also delayed, and the fact that taking a flight tomorrow would require getting back into a security line stretching seemingly for miles, we decided to get a car and drive five hours to our destination. That’s how bad air travel is right now. Driving is faster.
Air travel is awful in this country. People don’t realize just how much it sucks unless they have to do it a lot. It’s not just TSA. Flight delays. Air traffic control issues. Service is even worse than usual. Every airport is crowded and slow and worn down and dirty. Everyone brings their dogs. The term “service animal” doesn’t mean anything anymore.
Air travel used to be luxurious. People used to wear suits. Working for an airline was prestigious. The employees took it seriously. It sucks now. It’s terrible. This is the kind of thing our leaders should be fixing. Because the most frustrating thing is that it is so eminently fixable. If only anyone bothered to try.
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@jason_howerton Interested, but can’t DM without verification
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I'm looking at my options for liquidity for a new investment that I'm really excited about here in TX. Don't want to sell down stocks. So I'm *considering* selling our vacation home, but I don't really want to deal with hassle.
The market has softened obviously. So, if you'd like to get an elite mountain house at 2021 price levels, I'll also kick you the full 6% that I'd pay to the realtors if you want to buy direct. Buy agreement > title company > inspection > close.
Whether or not I sell it will probably depend on if anyone sees this who is interested in getting a deal. DM if you want details!




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@Jasonmorgan35 Same happened to me last week in the Alps. Nothing a 90 minutes session can’t help. 🤦♂️
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@stackhodler I’m in a flight back to Florida, from beautiful Switzerland, with my 3 little girls.
Seeing the strength in CHF first hand, do you see any safety in buying a Franc ETF like the FXF?
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Haven't been sharing much macro / investing stuff on here since nobody wants to read bearish takes
And I've been mostly bearish since late last fall.
But someone asked for my current thinking so here it goes:
My daughter will be born any day now.
Protecting my family's capital and navigating this fourth turning has been my number one priority since my son was born two years ago.
I have been laser focused on making sure baby girl and her big brother are taken care of.
And that mom is blissfully unaware of the unfolding chaos.
But I can only do things that are in my control.
Scrolling the timeline and getting worked up about every tit-for-tat escalation is completely useless.
So what have I done instead?
The majority of my portfolio has been in Swiss Francs and physical gold since late last fall.
I shared my bearish thinking then. It was very hard to sell.
But with my family's well-being guiding my decisions, my gut told me I had to.
For the first time since going all-in on Bitcoin around $5K in March 2020, BTC makes up a minority of my holdings.
And I'm still in no hurry to re-deploy.
I've moved my CHF into the most stable Swiss banks in existence with unlimited state guarantees.
I moved my physical gold into high security non-bank safety deposit boxes, along with some physical CHF.
And besides some energy-related equities and some QQQ puts...
I'm being patient with my family's capital.
The closest I have come to buying anything was some arable land with a fresh water source in France.
But I'm not keen on tying a large chunk of capital to the fate of France.
We have a private credit crisis, a global sovereign debt bubble, the worst energy crisis in history, and potential WW3 breaking out.
Global yields just began breaking out in a major way last week.
Equity indexes have been incredibly complacent given the circumstances.
If you think you're late to react, IMO you're not.
I see massive complacency.
People forget that the world can actually turn into a very chaotic place.
We have been living in abnormally peaceful and prosperous times for our whole lives.
Everyone is conditioned to expect TACO, v-shaped recovery, etc.
But I think that changes this week.
Especially if we pass Trump's 48hr deadline and all parties follow through on their threats to destroy more critical infrastructure.
Maybe this is peak fear.
Maybe we walk back from the brink and stop the bleeding.
(not that it solves the private credit or sovereign debt crises btw)
But as a steward of my family's capital, wealth preservation remains a far bigger priority for me than incremental gains given the circumstances.
I have long written that I expect either the Great Debasement or Great Depression 2 in the 2020s.
But perhaps we get both.
In my estimation, Great Depression 2 is now far more likely than it was just a few weeks ago.
I.e. everyone getting poorer in real terms due to skyrocketing energy costs, people losing jobs, and people defaulting on debt en masse.
The assumption that central banks can simply print us out of this crisis is a dangerous one.
Sure they may print.
But they cannot print oil.
They cannot print jobs.
They cannot print energy infrastructure.
They cannot put the AI genie back in the bottle.
A serious supply crunch of oil can only be dealt with by allowing demand destruction.
Printing money does the opposite.
Printing money into a supply crunch of oil / nat gas is basically destroying the currency on purpose.
Which may very well happen.
But that brings the legitimacy of the Central Banks into question, so will they deliberately destroy themselves?
We ignore these constraints at our own peril.
As yields start moving higher, I am braced for a deflationary "correlation to 1" moment.
I have a shopping list of quality assets ready to go (including BTC) and I will deploy capital once I see how the central planners decide to react.
Beyond investing, I've stocked up on a years worth of critical supplies.
My home is filled to the brim with diapers and formula.
I've done all I can to prepare my family.
Now it's time for a long ski erg and a sauna session to make sure I'm in the best mental state possible for baby girl's arrival.
The timeline is un-scrollable right now.
Just a massive doom fest.
Take action. Do what you can to prepare.
But don't forget that the world is still beautiful.
And the best things in life have nothing to do with money.
Time with family, pushing yourself physically in nature, a little bit of morning sunshine on your face...
If you have the ability to enjoy those things today you're already wealthier than you realize.

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Travis Kirk ретвитнул

Let me explain exactly why every new subdivision in America looks like the top photo, because the math is wild.
A mature tree increases a home's value by 7 to 19 percent. On a $400,000 house, that's $28,000 to $76,000. A single shade tree produces the cooling equivalent of ten room-size air conditioners running 20 hours a day. One tree on the west side of a house cuts energy bills by 12 percent within 15 years. The bottom photo is worth more, costs less to live in, and sells faster. This has been documented by the University of Washington, Clemson, Michigan State, and the USDA. The data is not in dispute.
Removing those trees saves the builder roughly $5,000 per lot. Concrete trucks need twice the dripline radius of every standing tree. Utility trenches need flat ground. A bulldozer flattens 200 lots in an afternoon. Preserving trees adds weeks and thousands per home.
So the developer pockets $5,000 in savings and the buyer eats $50,000 in lost value for the next two decades. The person making the decision and the person paying for it have never been in the same room.
The Woodlands, Texas is the proof of what happens when they are. George Mitchell bought 28,000 acres of Houston timberland in 1974 and preserved 28% as permanent green space. He forced McDonald's to build behind the tree canopy. That McDonald's became one of the highest-volume locations in Texas. The first office building, designed to reflect the surrounding forest so you couldn't see it from the street, leased completely.
The Woodlands median home price today: $615,000. Katy, a comparable Houston suburb that clear-cut: $375,000. Named #1 community to live in America two years running.
Fifty years of data. The trees are worth more than removing them saves. Developers clear-cut anyway because they sell the house once and leave. You live in it for 30 years.
bitfloorsghost@bitfloorsghost
we ruined such a good thing
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@JKSully313 @rfkenmore Tell me you’re an idiot without telling me
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When I was a teenager, I never - not once - got a call from a paper job application I handed in.
If I asked to speak to the manager when handing it in, I was hired every time. Every time.
Charisma is the only skill that matters.
Stephen Storey@StephenStorey
My thoughts on online dating Instagram and tinder have done almost nothing for me in all the years I’ve been on both In Real life, it’s night and day If I approach 9 times out of 10 I’m getting a number Everything doesn’t work for everybody I’ll stick to what works
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$60k cybertruck was the deal of a lifetime
Elon Musk@elonmusk
Oh and it works in all AI4-equipped cars, so your car can do office work for you when not driving. We’re also deploying millions of dedicated Digital Optimus units in the field at Superchargers where we have ~7 gigawatts of available power.
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@buckleycarlson @KerryBurgess Because it’s complete nonsense?
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Worth the listen, because you likely won't read it anywhere. @KerryBurgess
Kerry Burgess@KerryBurgess
Listen to this clip. Then, the next one in the thread.. Is this a reflection of just how badly this war is going for the US?
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@avgvstvsczr @AYates80267549 @buckleycarlson There are ways to make money out there for those willing to work for it. Turn off the gambling apps, ignore the noise, and quit complaining. No one is coming to save you. (No pun intended)
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@TravisKirkFlow @AYates80267549 @buckleycarlson I feel so saved right now living life paycheck to paycheck while Jewish billionaires scam the economy with spyware and gambling apps 🥰
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