@garyblack00@elonmusk I think the end of Tesla began when Elon bought BTC in Jan 2021, then played that Tax drama later that year, and the final blow in April this year when he started his purchase of Twitter. Arrogance played a large part in his sense of invincibility.
Doesn’t help when @elonmusk blames the Fed for declining $TSLA stock since other tech stocks holding up just fine (TSLA -54% vs NDX flat since Oct 1; YTD thru 9/30 TSLA outperformed NDX by +8pp). Since 10/1, 10yrTYs dropped as inflation has eased. TSLA down due to China and TWTR.
@Herbert_Diess@VWGroup Herbert idea for VW going into EV was great, but his technical knowhow is poor, which got VW in such a mess with slow software and slow processors, with cars costing too much but without even a cheap armrest, and ID Buzz being launched with stupid short WB!
Today is my last day as @VWGroup CEO. These were the most rewarding 7 years of my career. The future of our industry can be brilliant but we have to change fast. We have changed tremendously & are well underway. Thank you for all your trust & feedback.
linkedin.com/posts/herbertd…
We have the highest respect for @elonmusk. He’s created great wealth for many of us and forced the auto industry to go electric. We’ve disagreed with Elon on a handful of issues (buying #btc, buying #twtr, full autonomy L4 timing, TWTR noise, no PR) but we’d never bash him.
It takes a lot for me to block someone. If you accuse me of spreading FUD (we don’t; we try to explain how the market is interpreting data and news) or accuse us of bashing @elonmusk (why would we? TSLA is our largest position), or attack me personally, I will block you.
@elonmusk@GerberKawasaki See? Elon thinks he's always right despite the Twitter fiasco which made so many small investors poor. The guy must think he is god, how could anyone trust this person?
@GerberKawasaki In simple terms:
As bank savings account interest rates, which are guaranteed, start to approach stock market returns, which are *not* guaranteed, people will increasingly move their money out of stocks into cash, thus causing stocks to drop.
@garyblack00@elonmusk There's no hope for TSLA now, it's probably breaching $150, all because of Elon. I think there should be a class suit by investors against Elon.
Is @elonmusk selling more $TSLA shares today on the last day before the 4Q trading window closes? Possibly. Seems unbelievable to me Elon selling here at 22x my 2023 EPS of $7+ (all time low 28.2x Jan 2019) to pay down $TWTR debt. Recession forces receding as inflation retreats.
@garyblack00 Elon do the right thing? That ain't gonna happen, we've seen what he did with our investment. Elon doesn't care and his arrogance has led to all his troubles now, and it is growing.
6/ Just to be clear, as long-term investors we’re not selling $TSLA at a depressed price of $170/share share vs an estimated $TSLA valuation of $550/share. We will let this play out. We expect Elon and the Board to do the right thing for $TSLA SH.
Only one other time did I think @elonmusk was putting $TSLA SH at risk. That was Feb 2021 when TSLA invested $1.5B in #btc @ $32K per btc. I exited TSLA at $290 (split-adj) then re-entered in May/Jun at <$200 when it became clear TSLA wouldn’t buy more BTC as institutions exited.
@ullysis@garyblack00 Whatever happens to Twitter affects Tesla, as Elon will always sell Tesla shares whenever he needs money to prop up Twitter. Twitter and Tesla are forever intertwined, until one or both are demised.
@garyblack00 Time to stop talking about Twitter! It's a private company. Focus on Tesla fundamentals. None of these statements will make Elon change course. He's got personal friends and close associates involved with Twitter and he won't let them down. Let's move on!
It’s hard to put a value on $TWTR today. Elon paid $44B for TWTR, and the $13B debt trades for $.60 on the dollar, so ~$8B. The $31B equity is down more: EBITDA about 1/2 the prior $1.2B/year = $600M. At 20x = $12B less $8B debt = $4B equity. So equity -88%.
@garyblack00 Gary, Twitter is like Bitcoin. It's just a platform with some computers and servers, but no factory, no equipments to produce consumer goods. This $44B spent on this purchase was money burned, Elon's biggest mistake!
Two very admirable qualities I’ve learned about @elonmusk:
1/ When everyone is attacking him, he fights back even harder
2/ When he realizes he’s wrong, he pivots very quickly to change direction
@martinviecha@hiromichimizuno
4/ So even if $1B/yr ad rev left, Elon has implemented $400M/yr cost cuts and could raise $200M/yr if 1% of 238M mDAUs pay $8/mo for blue checks. $TWTR can still borrow at <10%. @Elonmusk is dealing with a bad investment the best he can. He needs to bring in an ad-driven CEO.
Let’s give @elonmusk a break. No one should have believed the argument that he wouldn’t sell $TSLA shares again; my view (repeated frequently) was that he meant he was done selling for that 3-day tranche in Aug and that he still had some $5.4B to raise if the deal went through.
@garyblack00@MartinViecha@elonmusk I don't think a buyback will reverse the crash, for as long as Musk is at the helm. Gary, investors don't trust Elon anymore. He is the "overhang" of Tesla.
At $178, $TSLA now trading at the lowest 1yr forward P/E (42x) since at least 2019. A $10B buyback would be hugely accretive here and change the awful sentiment since the $TWTR deal. @MartinViecha@elonmusk