Adam Megginson

🔻 Benchmark lithium prices in China sank by 9.2% today, but why? The answer is twofold... 1️⃣ EV sales figures published by several Chinese automakers for February underwhelmed (e.g. BYD saw Jan+Feb sales down 35.8% y-o-y). 2️⃣ Concerns emerged that demand for #BESS in the Middle East (an important and fast growing region for deployment of Chinese BESS) could be dampened by a widening conflict there. How did the market react? Speculators: In response, investors sold #lithium futures contracts, moving their money either into cash to weather market instability, or into petrochemicals to capitalise on rallying crude prices following strikes on oil assets in the Middle East and related shipping disruption. Here, opportunity cost was a major factor, demonstrating that lithium futures in China host significant speculator capital. Downstream consumers: With domestic inventory depleted (especially when expressed on relative terms, in weeks of demand), consumers rushed to buy at lowering spot prices, leading to a flurry of transaction activity across a wide but falling range of prices. Futures quotations closed on Monday at RMB 172,000/tonne and by the end of trading today were at RMB 150,860/tonne (for the May '26 contract). A dip of about RMB 10,000/tonne has tended to be enough to trigger the downstream to pick up procurement activity. When the exchange hit its volatility limit of 13%, trading ground to a halt. Elsewhere: CIF Asia spot prices will be slower to react, having only just reflected a more bullish post-Chinese New Year swing, accelerated by Zimbabwe's export ban (more on this at the second link in the comments). #Spodumene prices are unlikely to dip as sharply as chemicals, because sellers currently retain strong bargaining power. Many players are racing to bring supply to market at these much more appealing prices. So, don't be surprised if this strong feedstock seller power doesn't last to the end of the year. 🔗 Read our full analysis of this story at the link in the comments. @benchmarkmin

⏳ There is still time to sign up for tomorrow's webinar! After a year defined by geopolitics, supply shocks, and diverging price signals, 2026 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for critical raw materials. Policy intervention, delayed supply growth, and uneven demand recovery are reshaping price formation across markets. In this exclusive webinar, Frederick, George and I will unpack the key drivers shaping 2026, drawing on insights from our latest whitepaper and @benchmarkmin 's proprietary forecasts. We will cover #Lithium, Nickel, #Cobalt, Graphite, Black Mass and #RareEarths Are markets returning to fundamentals, or has a new paradigm emerged? What should supply chain participants keep their eyes on for the year ahead? We also have some exciting announcements to make, so you don't want to miss it.... 🔗 Sign up link in the comments

Here's our full take: source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/ganfen…

What's happening with lithium prices Sunday: The chairman of the world's third largest lithium producer delivers a keynote speech saying that if demand surprises to the upside (perhaps because of outperformance from two-wheelers or heavy duty truck applications) the market could be in deficit as soon as next year - and that this could nearly double prices to $21/kg (or more). 📈 Monday: Benchmark's daily domestic China Lithium Carbonate price jumps 5.8% day-on-day. Today: Benchmark's daily domestic China Lithium Carbonate price climbs a further 1.0% day-on-day. ⚖️ Our view: Although #ESS demand is strong right now, supply and demand fundamentals remain mostly unchanged - so we forecast the market will remain oversupplied next year. In fact, supply is only set to strengthen with CATL's Jianxiawo lepidolite mine rumoured to come online before the end of the year and Zimbabwean lithium sulphate soon adding to supply. Reality check: It remains to be seen if downstream #lithium consumers are convinced by Ganfeng's bullish reading of the market, but so far we haven't recorded increased procurement activity. This indicates lithium buyers aren't reacting with the panicked purchasing you would expect had they turned more bullish about the critical mineral's short term price trajectory. Our full analysis is available to subscribers in the link in the comments. 📩 Not subscribing to @benchmarkmin yet? Reach out to hear how we've strengthened our offering.

📈 CIF Europe terbium oxide prices hold a 267% premium to DDP China, in our latest assessment China's export controls on rare earth elements (#REEs) have triggered a marked price bifurcation between the Chinese domestic market and markets in other regions. Benchmark’s latest Rare Earths Price Assessment shows that ex-China prices of heavy #rareearth oxides (#HREO) are now significantly higher than those in the domestic Chinese market, and rising. 🔸 So what is driving this bifurcation? 🔸 How are light rare earth prices moving by comparison? 🔸 What else could impact the market in the near future? For answers, read the free @benchmarkmin analysis, linked in the comments

⛏️You may have heard that US Defense needs Rare Earths... Crucial US military platforms such as the Arleigh Burke destroyer and Virginia-class submarine require 2.6mt and 4.6mt of #REEs to be precise. ✈️F-35 Fighter jets use 418kg of REEs, essential for weapons targeting systems, lasers, and other advanced onboard technologies. So rare earth elements (REEs) are fundamental ingredients in advanced #military technology. And with >70% of REE imports now coming from China, the US govt is trying to onshore production. @benchmarkmin's new Special Issue dives deep into this critical mineral demand through the lens of the #defense sector - you can request it here: eu1.hubs.ly/H0m5Wcv0 ⚡Benchmark data brought to life by @VisualCap

🌍Beyond excited to join @benchmarkmin's inaugural #GigaAfrica conference in September. #Cell, anode and cathode producers are looking to derisk and diversify their supply chains, elevating the profile of projects in Africa. And these projects are now reaching further and further downstream too. I will be bringing delegates fresh insights on the #lithium market and exploring accelerating midstream developments in the region, as Morocco emerges as a strategic hub. 🎟️Join the conversation with the thought leaders driving this shift. Early bird tickets are still available until the end of the month, so act quickly to secure your seat: bit.ly/GigaAfrica25 #EnergyTransition

"Benchmark's forecasts assume an end to US EV tax credits." As supply chain participants digest a cooling of the dramatic #tradewar between the US and China, a landmark bill is introduced into Congress which would see most tax benefits for EVs eliminated by the end of 2026. If it passes, it would spell the end of the 3 tax benefits currently covering most EV purchases - foundations of the Inflation Reduction Act passed in 2022: 1. The $7,500 tax credit for private buyers of new EVs would continue until the end of 2026. But from January 2026 only automakers that have already sold <200,000 vehicles would be eligible. 2. The $4,000 tax credit for used EVs would be removed at the end of 2025. 3. The $7,500 commercial-vehicle credit that boosted the affordability of EV leases would end in 2025. Leases have been popular so this could be particularly impactful. More on the bill here: wsj.com/business/autos… If it becomes legislation, it could boost #EV demand in the short term, as buyers look to cash in while the incentives remain. But from 2027, purchasing interest would be slower. As our Special Issue points out, several Republicans have previously come out in favour of preserving some clean energy funding. So it is not a given that it will pass. If you haven't yet read our free Special Issue on the first 100 days of the new US administration you are missing out. @benchmarkmin's expert analysts unpick the myriad policy changes and Executive Orders announced so far and how they will influence the growth of EVs, batteries and the wider #energytransition. Will #cell components be harder to import, and more appealing to make domestically? Yes. But has the US regulatory environment become less certain and therefore less appealing to invest in? Also yes. Read it in full here: source.benchmarkminerals.com/downloads/spec…

🔎Why are lithium prices sliding? Sellers in China have expressed consternation given a robust domestic demand picture in April. But falling buying interest in the seaborne import markets of South Korea and Japan has weighed on prices. And now domestic sentiment is turning more negative too. Meanwhile supply from both hard rock and brine sources into China has remained strong and chemicals inventory in the country is mounting. When CIF Asia prices fall below the domestic Chinese price like this, it typically causes difficulty for buyers in Japan and South Korea to obtain material, because it is more appealing for Chinese sellers to offer material into the domestic market than export. 🇦🇺 Participants across the supply chain are looking for signs of production cuts at Australian #spodumene mining majors although there haven't been any yet - and no one wants to be the first to cut. But as we emerge from the Labour Day holiday in China price support may come from elsewhere; Benchmark has tracked some domestic chemical producers beginning to undertake maintenance and taper down production in response to the widening price gap between #lithium feedstock and chemicals. We will monitor closely to see if it becomes a more sizeable supply curtailment. 🌐These developments form a dynamic backdrop for the launch of BMI x ICE futures next month. These industry-leading #futures contracts will be settled against our price assessments for lithium carbonate (CIF Asia), lithium hydroxide (CIF Asia), and spodumene (FOB Australia), the top 3 grades in the below price chart. Please reach out to me if you have any questions about this exciting @benchmarkmin launch.

🚧 Our analysis shows the US is set to fall short of meeting most of its critical mineral demand domestically, even if all announced projects come online as planned. Take #lithium, domestic mining has the potential to meet 67% of #battery demand if all projects come online, as revealed by @benchmarkmin's Lithium Forecast. With greenfield project timelines spanning in excess of 10 years for the #upstream, and a comparatively underdeveloped #midstream pipeline, significant investments are still needed if this vision is to be fulfilled. 🇺🇸 US President Donald Trump is placing critical minerals under a stronger spotlight, signing an Executive Order earlier this month to speed up permitting and accelerate public and private investments. #CriticalMinerals are once again at the top of the mainstream political agenda. Don't miss the best opportunity to hear from and speak directly to top policymakers and key industry figures shaping the North American landscape. #GigaUSA returns to Washington DC on 3-4 June 2025. Get your ticket here: bit.ly/GigaUSA25

🌡️ Pet coke prices have been rallying due to a tightening supply picture, and are now pushing pet needle coke prices up too. Pre-calcined #petcoke prices have risen sharply by 80% year-to-date. This surge has been driven by new taxes in #China reducing the margins of domestic refiners, leading them to reduce supply. Buyers responded by accelerating procurement of material. The result? Pet needle coke prices increased by 19% month-on-month in February. In a first, a small number of #pet coke transactions were even recorded above the lowest pet needle coke prices. Contacts have shared expectations that the price spike may be an overcorrection, and that upward momentum could cool in the near term. For more detail on this and other trends in the coke market, @benchmarkmin's Synthetic #Graphite Price Assessment publishes 7 IOSCO-assured price grades every month with market commentary contextualising supply/demand dynamics.

Benchmark Source article featuring additional data and GIS imagery here: source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/what-c…

@catl_official may imminently resume operations at its Jianxiawo mica mine in #China, which was put into care and maintenance in September last year. Speculation about the reopening is dampening prospects of a post Chinese New Year price rally that some producers and traders were hoping for. Along with trepidation about US #tariffs on China, many market participants are opting for a wait-and-watch procurement approach as trade implications become clearer. The economics of mica mining at #CATL's Jianxiawo mine haven't changed much since it was closed in September. But a municipal desire to generate additional tax revenue and boost local employment, plus favourable energy rates help explain the decision to recommence operations. Combined with plans to source higher quality feedstock from a third party to blend with their material, these factors should enable a reduced cost of production - making the restart more viable. For more detail, read on in the @benchmarkmin Source article linked in the thread below

🔎 Benchmark LFP black mass prices have fallen 39.0% since they peaked in April 2024 at $645 per % of Li contained. On an EXW China basis, they are now down to $393 per % Li contained – a 14.2% decline in September versus August. 📉 Falling virgin lithium carbonate prices have weighed on LFP black mass prices over the last six months. A combination of lithium chemical oversupply, healthy inventories of EVs + finished cells, and slower than expected #EV demand in some regions have contributed to falling carbonate prices. Outside of #China, liquidity for #LFP black mass remains limited, with a variety of pricing structures being used. 🔗 Learn more about @benchmarkmin's #BlackMass Price Assessment here: benchmarkminerals.com/recycling/recy…

💵 How to Finance the Energy Transition? It could be the biggest question facing this ambitious transition. The role of the private sector has always been top of mind, but the public sector's role has come into sharper focus since the US' ambitious IRA was signed into law in August 2022. 📢 Top industry voices will be sharing their answers to the question at Benchmark Week on 12-14 November at the Ritz-Carlton, Marina del Rey. I'm looking forward to hearing what key Department of Energy decision makers @ashzforbes and @evchels share in LA next month. The session will cover initiatives, incentives, and policies designed to boost domestic production, secure resources, and strengthen #EV and #cleanenergy ecosystems. Then William Turlington from Société Générale, @LoganGoldieScot from Generate Capital and @ErezIchilov from Cedrus Arbor LLC will discuss evolving financial strategies from a private sector perspective. Expect to hear their views on how new capital streams can be introduced to strengthen battery #supplychains and scale #battery manufacturing. 🔗 If you don't yet have a ticket to @benchmarkmin 's flagship event, it is not too late. Find out more here: benchmarkevents.benchmarkminerals.com/benchmarkweek2…

The largest acquisition in the lithium market to date. And at a hefty 90% premium to the current Arcadium share price. But why such a premium? The cash offer comes to $6.7bn, 56% higher than Arcadium’s average market capitalisation since it was formed from the merger of Livent and Allkem in January 2024. Rio Tinto’s long term view is bullish on lithium. But the premium in the offer is not just a signal that Rio is bullish on lithium, it is also closer to $6.44bn – Allkem's average market cap over the 4 preceding years ($3.29bn) combined with Livent’s ($3.15bn). This could be seen as a more accurate reflection of Arcadium’s long term value, divorced from the current downswing in lithium prices. Should lithium prices continue to hover around current levels, expect to see more M&A activity in the space, as companies look to consolidate at attractively low valuations. You can read more on the deal here: source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/rio-ti… #Lithium #Merger #Acquisition #RioTinto #Arcadium