Michael Zerr

Four theses on tariff impacts: 1. Evidence clearly shows they've added 0.5-1.0pp to inflation. Evidence consistent with them subtracting from growth. And no evidence they've done anything good for manufacturing or trade deficits (but they have raised revenue).

NASA says it will take a few hours to troubleshoot the Artemis toilet

Today I sat down with Jordan Levi, the Kosher Cowboy - a Jewish kid from the Chicago suburbs who became the largest cattle feeder in America. Jordan runs Five Rivers Cattle Feeding with a capacity of nearly a million head. He started as a runner on the Chicago Board of Trade at 13 and found his way to cattle through a hedge fund that sent him to a feedlot in Amarillo. He showed up in Gucci loafers and never left the industry. We go deep on how he trades the curve instead of making binary bets, why the cattle supply is the tightest since the 1950s, and what it takes to manage risk on nearly a million animals across 13 feedlots. I hope you enjoy this episode as much as I did. 02:16 - The Belted Galloway 03:51 - The Kosher Cowboy 08:05 - Pulling value of the futures forward 11:43 - Learning Cattle trading 16:48 - Daily average gain in cattle 18:20 - Jordan’s Eureka moment in the cattle industry 21:08 - What does trading in animals actually look like? 27:05 - How Jordan defines his ROI in trading cattle 31:17 - The Cattle curve 33:37 - The state of the cattle market 42:10 - Buying the largest cattle feeder in the world 46:09 - Grass vs. grain fed cattle 49:15 - Predictions for the cattle supply over the next 10 years 50:54 - The international market 53:17 - Trading frequencies and macro thesis 01:00:27 - USA beef vs. international beef 01:05:21 - The cattle supply chain 01:07:32 - The future of auction yards and ranchers 01:09:40 - AI in AgTech 01:12:52 - The biggest problem facing the industry 01:14:42 - Livestock as a commodity that dies and how that impacts trading theory 01:20:51 - Is there a market for new entrants into cattle? 01:21:41 - Beef prices and the impact of a closed border on the industry 01:24:39 - Jordan’s biggest ideas for the industry 01:26:49 - Philanthropic efforts 01:31:24 - a day in the life of Jordan 01:26:42 - Risk management in cattle 01:41:17 - Does what you do show a leading indicator to the broader health of the American economy?

99.9% of people who "experienced" the Challenger disaster saw it on replay and now remember it as live. Almost NO ONE was watching. Everyone thinks they were. It's a fascinating collective false memory.

A novel idea: Train and hire American doctors. More than 5,000 top scoring students, American students, are rejected from US medical schools every year. Thousands of Med school grads are not placed in a residency every year while thousands of foreigners are.

BREAKING: Just five minutes before Trump's announcement to halt the attacks on Iran, massive trades reportedly hit the market. In one move, $1.5 billion in S&P 500 (ES) futures was bought while $192 million in oil (CL) futures was sold. These orders were 4–6x larger than anything else at the time. The trader seemingly made huge gains. Unusual.

IRS net migration data is out of 2023: 🔴 Red states gained $37.2 billion in income and 492k filers. 🔵 Blue states lost ~$40.8B and 520k filers. CA −$11.9B, NY −$9.9B, IL −$6.0B, MA −$4.2B, NJ −$2.8B.

Wrong. His predictions proved wrong. They were not premature. They were wrong. His understanding of the world was wrong. Faulty. Unrealistic. False. Falsified.