LittleRobot

Thank you very much for everyone that's coming in and joining this profile. trytoone.com is the best @Polymarket AI intelligence analysis tool currently in the market! Built on top of Claude Code and Codex, it fits your current setup like a glove. Not a silver bullet, it only contains the mindset every trader should have, along with it's tools, skills, mcps, calculators. Only work here, no shortcuts. We've launched a couple days ago in @ProductHunt and the feedback never been greater. Available for MacOS users, has mobile, zenmode, and we are cooking much more. #polymarket #toone #producthunt #market #predictionmarkets #claudecode #codex #ai #llm

@devjoshstevens @Polymarket Can we please work on replacing UMA please? Have an agentic team gathering sources from humans and another team for judging. The incentives there are plain wrong

This is my 3rd week as VP of Engineering DeFi at @Polymarket , and I'm going to be straight: the traction @Polymarket has seen has massively outpaced our infrastructure, and we haven't done nearly enough to scale to keep up. I hear you, and fixing this is our entire focus. We're a major company now, and we need to engineer like one. Here's exactly what we're doing: - Onchain data latency. We're working on making this near-instant so the experience is incredible. - Chain migration. We need more block space, cheaper gas and much smaller block times so settlement is instant. - Transactions are getting cancelled. We understand this is one of the most frustrating issues right now, and we have a complete fix coming very soon. - Massive focus on the website to make it faster, more responsive, and with better UX. - We added observability everywhere. Proper alerting so we catch issues ourselves, market makers should not be the ones telling us something is down. That's been unacceptable, and we know it. - E2e tests throughout, starting with the CLOB, so issues get caught in CI before anything ships. - CLOBv2 is not a rewrite. It won't improve performance or stability on its own; it's an upgrade that unlocks us to move fast right after. We'll do better with communication next time. - We are rebuilding the CLOB from the ground up. Most important thing we're doing. Without it, we can't be the best DeFi exchange in the world. We know it, we're on it, it's mission critical. - Unified TypeScript SDK for all APIs, which is shipping soon. - Unified API. One WS connection for everything, with a schema that's actually readable. - New Polymarket contract in the works that unlocks things that are simply impossible on the current protocol. - New hires: Head of QA Automation, Head of Dev Tooling, Head of Internal Tooling, Head of Data Engineering. - Smaller, dedicated teams. Fewer focus points per person, clearer ownership. People do what they're good at and are accountable for it. - Working closely with customer support to give them real debugging tools so any user issue gets properly diagnosed, not lost. - Proper communication with marketing and market makers so everyone knows what's coming and when, and MM can submit feature requests with a clear path to get them into engineering and shipped. - Working with 4 security teams daily to ensure we're super secure and that funds are always safe. - Perps incoming. Brand new contracts and a backend built from scratch in Rust. We're proud of this one. - A lot of other fixes are running in parallel right now. Starting next Friday, I will be posting weekly engineering updates. I joined because I genuinely believe in what @Polymarket is trying to do. @shayne_coplan built this so the world has somewhere to go to find out what's actually going to happen, not what the media thinks, not what a pundit says, but what thousands of people are willing to put money on. But right now, our engineering isn't living up to that. We've let people down, and I'm not going to dress that up. I came here to fix it, and that's exactly what we're going to do. The next few months are going to speak for themselves. Stay with us.

@CarOnPolymarket Muaehn I’m so virtuous and schtuff

Always bet on peace.

@turshija Wow

I got completely owned by the most sophisticated hack I've ever encountered. I'm a developer. I know what scams look like. This didn't look like one. 🧵

Yes. I’m out of Polymarket because of these inconsistencies. Last Israel x Hezbollah resolution was the same, it was resolved to yes with an “acknowledgment”. So we have UMA, a highly unprepared team resolving disputes on “vibes” and on the other side, public perception. So I guess the markets are simply resolved on whatever the media wants to frame, with no actual attachment to the rules. This makes products like Toone x Polymarket impossible because how the media will portrait against facts and how edges are calculated is just simply too unpredictable. We are sunsetting Toone x Polymarket

Sadly, there's a problem with Middle East markets on Polymarket. As we all know, the US x Iran ceasefire was extended. Yet on Polymarket, the odds are sitting at just 6%. Why? I wish I had the answer. But I don’t. Why is it sometimes so difficult to resolve a market that seems so abundantly clear? Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire on April 21, and the odds jumped from 20% to 95%. But now, a day later, we're at 6%, even though there's clearly a ceasefire in effect RIGHT NOW. The market deadline is in a few hours. At that point, it could theoretically resolve to "No", unless someone pays $1,500 to dispute the resolution. Trump has a public appearance tomorrow, he will 100% say the ceasefire was extended and is in effect right now. Meanwhile, the Polymarket would have been resolved to NO by that time. I wish Polymarket aligned with reality more often in Middle East markets. The Middle East is complex, but that shouldn't make clear resolutions this difficult. I made about 800K in Middle East markets, which puts me in the top 20, i have traded hundreds of them, but one thing I really hate is that sadly, markets very clearly resolve against reality too often in the Middle East category. I'm a big fan of Middle East markets. It's a region that really interests me, but whenever a market like this is on the brink of a wrong resolution, it takes the fun out of it. We're betting on peace here. We have peace. Yet people are arguing there is no peace. Why? Because they're lying to make a quick buck. This happens too often on Polymarket. The idea of Polymarket providing answers about real-world events is amazing. But in this case, it's clearly not working. That said, the market isn't over yet. It will likely be disputed and reviewed by UMA or clarified by Polymarket. I still have hope it will resolve correctly even though it should've already 12 hours ago.

@SGhasseminejad That's wild 😅

The regime perceives the ceasefire, its extension, and the repeated requests for negotiations as signs of weakness. Hence, it mocks the president and the United States.

@FirstSquawk Iran says it aknowldges the ceasefire

IRAN SAYS IT HAS YET TO DECIDE WHETHER TO JOIN A NEW ROUND OF TALKS WITH THE US - AP

@DeItaone Have the diplomats aknowledged the ceasefire?

PROLONGED ENERGY CRISIS AHEAD, EU WARNS EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen said the global energy outlook remains grim, even in the best-case scenario, as Middle East tensions disrupt supplies. He likened the situation to a combined 1973 and 2022 crisis, warning disruptions could last months or years. Even a swift peace deal wouldn’t bring quick relief—Qatar’s gas infrastructure alone could take over two years to rebuild. LNG prices are unlikely to stabilize anytime soon, with tough conditions expected to persist.

2:40h if a departure will happen.

🚨Update on the ADS-B tracking: count back up to 15 RCH airborne. But the interesting development — a C-5M Galaxy (HAGAR70) just departed CONUS eastbound from New England, flying in formation with a KC-135 tanker. The C-5 is the largest cargo aircraft in the US fleet — it's what carries Marine One and oversized presidential support equipment. Could be routine, could be significant. Pipeline is steady, two fresh eastbound over Europe pushing through Germany right now.

🚨Interesting ADS-B pattern right now: 14 RCH (Air Mobility Command) C-17 Globemasters airborne over Europe, 10 with positions masked. Multiple tracking SE through the corridor toward the Middle East. Zero fighters, zero bombers, zero EW/AWACS — this is a logistics operation, not a strike buildup. SAM (89th Airlift Wing) Gulfstream also active over Netherlands. Someone important is going somewhere.

Interesting ADS-B pattern right now: 14 RCH (Air Mobility Command) C-17 Globemasters airborne over Europe, 10 with positions masked. Multiple tracking SE through the corridor toward the Middle East. Zero fighters, zero bombers, zero EW/AWACS — this is a logistics operation, not a strike buildup. SAM (89th Airlift Wing) Gulfstream also active over Netherlands. Someone important is going somewhere.

The United States is not going to the negotiation table with Iran. I don’t think we should call it “negotiations”. It’s more accurate to be honest and say it’s a pressure campaign the United States is imposing on Iran. The United States is forcing Iran to give up its nuclear program and open up the strait and many more.

🚨 8 Position-masked RCH airplanes with eastbound tanker support detected following Islamabad talks. This potentially indicates POTUS-level operational advanced logistics. The next 2h-3h will be essential to assess. Still tracking;

Increased signals of POTUS-level advanced deployment heading eastward. +11 C-17s airborne; 8 position-masked; Window for POTUS US-Islamabad departure: 5h;

@WarMonitor3 That's consistent with presidential level advanced logistics

Huge amount of US airforce activity heading into the Middle East today largest I have seen in a while as ceasefire deadline quickly approaches...

@aa80233 I'm in Europe

@aa80233 Ah I see, yes, I think that's more like an insurance/leverage rather than actual boots on the ground. Would need much more. And sentiment (nor actual willing to change anything meaningful) is there. Is just a big theater

Trading is not for the faint of heart! Built a position this morning. Protocols checked out, fundamentals solid. Two hours later, headlines hit. Down almost 40%. Didn't flinch. People dumping positions left and right. The structural picture hadn't changed, only the noise had. By end of day, price came back to us. Headlines move markets. Fundamentals move them back. That's how Toone helps you by keeping you calm because the work is already done. Join our waiting list at trytoone.com/polymarket #Toone #MacOS #Claude #OpenAI #Anthropic #Polymarket #Trader #Trading #AlgoTrading #QuantTrading #OptionsFlow #PredictionsMarket #DeFi #MEV #CryptoQuant #TradingSetup #Finwit #OnchainAnalysis

@aa80233 Where are you at?

@try_toone I also think my country is sending a LOT of reinforcements for a country planning on deescalation.

@aa80233 And by losing Hezbollah I mean, if this happens, if Lebanon also converts against Hezbollah and fights against it, which is probably not happening. Odds are on making them more legitimate, stronger party in Lebanon

I see, and I was thinking the same. But Iran nor the US didn't lose nothing in this "war". Yes a couple of anti-air and equipments but look at what they got: - Iranian regime re-legitimized internally (It was falling apart) - Iranian regime geopolitically stronger (+ influence on hormuz) Yes, it's losing Hezbollah but not in the short term

@aa80233 also things as the israel x hezbollah is moving along, big money is betting on deescalation

@aa80233 It can all fall apart, but I think US has accomplished it's goal and Iran as well. From now on it's a losing game for both to stay in open conflict