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Mihir Panchal, DO
Mihir Panchal, DO@mpan95·
@Brett_Pats Yea feels like our year tbh. Seattle is the favorite, they have a good but below elite level qb. Our defense is playing lights out. Weather will be non factor and Maye is due for a good game. Seattle’s D is good no doubt. But Pats are def the more battle tested team.
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Random Libertarian Tech Lead
Random Libertarian Tech Lead@someRandomDev5·
@mpan95 @Brett_Pats ”Maye is due for a good game“. Lol. You've acknowledged that he's been playing poorly the entire playoffs against good defenses, and now he's about to play the hardest defense he's faced. What a weird way to spin it.
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Mihir Panchal, DO
Mihir Panchal, DO@mpan95·
@someRandomDev5 @Brett_Pats Disagree I don’t think he’s played poorly in the context of playing 3 straight top 5 defenses and 2 in poor weather conditions. It’s literally only the turnovers. Chargers game wasn’t poor. He can play better is my point. He hasn’t had a Sam Darnold vs pats in 2019 game…
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Random Libertarian Tech Lead
Random Libertarian Tech Lead@someRandomDev5·
@mpan95 @Brett_Pats For reference, Seattle has the #1 defense, and Matthew Stafford just put up 27 points against them. Drake Maye set the record for postseason turnovers in the second playoff game. I don't know why you would expect him to play better than he has against a better defense lol.
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Random Libertarian Tech Lead
Random Libertarian Tech Lead@someRandomDev5·
@mpan95 @Brett_Pats For reference for those who have only watched Patriots games this season, this is what the Patriots' playoff opponents look like, generally speaking.
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Random Libertarian Tech Lead
Random Libertarian Tech Lead@someRandomDev5·
@mpan95 @Brett_Pats Note: Chargers played without Omarion Hampton, Joe Alt, etc. (Their offense was a run-first Greg Roman scheme). Texans played without Nico Collins, lost 2nd target mid game. (Their offense was pass-heavy). Broncos played without Bo Nix. Stidham took his first snap in 2 years.
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Random Libertarian Tech Lead
Random Libertarian Tech Lead@someRandomDev5·
@mpan95 @Brett_Pats If not for the offenses of their opponents being mediocre to begin with (#21, #19, #15) on top of facing significant key injuries going into these games, Drake Maye’s obviously-poor play would have been severely punished, and the Patriots would have been blown out much sooner.
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Random Libertarian Tech Lead
Random Libertarian Tech Lead@someRandomDev5·
@mpan95 @Brett_Pats It's pretty interesting that Patriots fans have genuinely convinced themselves of the delusion that their defense is playing well. In reality, they have a subpar defense that's been playing offenses that have just been “even worse” limping into the playoffs.
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Random Libertarian Tech Lead
Random Libertarian Tech Lead@someRandomDev5·
@mpan95 @Brett_Pats Fun note: The Patriots are basically an AFC mirror of the 49ers this year. The similarity stat-by-stat across the board is uncanny. And that's a team that the Seahawks nuked 41-6 on their way to the Super Bowl.
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Random Libertarian Tech Lead
Random Libertarian Tech Lead@someRandomDev5·
@mpan95 @Brett_Pats When you don't ground yourself in an understanding of the universe around you, you put yourself in a situation similar to an astronaut floating in space asking himself, "Which way is up?" You are not the point of reference. Everything is contextually relevant to something else.
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Random Libertarian Tech Lead
Random Libertarian Tech Lead@someRandomDev5·
@mpan95 @Brett_Pats Anyway, to bring this back after all of this context. If Matthew Stafford can put up 27 points against the league's number one defense, then if Drake Maye is a so-called “MVP candidate”, he should be able to score more than one touchdown against #10 Chargers D and #5 Broncos D.
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Random Libertarian Tech Lead
Random Libertarian Tech Lead@someRandomDev5·
@mpan95 @Brett_Pats In other words, seconds after the exact same corresponding time, each of the two teams involved in this game had scored more points than the "JV game" had combined across both teams. Drake Maye did about as good as a career back-up did.
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Random Libertarian Tech Lead
Random Libertarian Tech Lead@someRandomDev5·
@mpan95 @Brett_Pats Of course, you have to give Drake Maye a little bit of credit. He is better than a career backup. Stidham only had to play against the Patriots' defense, which is a much worse defense than the Broncos' defense.
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Random Libertarian Tech Lead
Random Libertarian Tech Lead@someRandomDev5·
@mpan95 @Brett_Pats Had the fourth quarter not been snowed out, Drake Maye would have scored a maximum of what… 17 total points for his team? Similar offensive scoring to the Chargers game. That's approx the avg PPG for these defenses. Is that supposed to be impressive for an MVP candidate?
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Random Libertarian Tech Lead
Random Libertarian Tech Lead@someRandomDev5·
@mpan95 @Brett_Pats And so now we get to the crux of the situation. The only reason that anybody ever overhyped Drake Maye as an MVP candidate is because: 1. The historically easy schedule. Easiest in 26 years and the third easiest in NFL history. 2. Boston is starving for Tom Brady.
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Random Libertarian Tech Lead
Random Libertarian Tech Lead@someRandomDev5·
@mpan95 @Brett_Pats The Patriots hype bubble is so overblown that it's reached the level of peak NFT hype — Truly and deeply out of touch with fundamentals. It exists only because Patriots fans are accustomed to being a dominant team for two decades straight. The glimpse of hope is overblown.
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Random Libertarian Tech Lead
Random Libertarian Tech Lead@someRandomDev5·
@mpan95 @Brett_Pats But it's great for us bettors. The Seahawks should be a -500 favorite, but instead they're only -238 because overconfident Patriots fans keep throwing money into the machine. And the spread is crazy. Helps with profitability, I guess. Thanks for remaining confident.
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Mihir Panchal, DO
Mihir Panchal, DO@mpan95·
@someRandomDev5 @Brett_Pats Lmaoo.. context matters, Denver is a whole other beast in the playoffs. Stanford faced Seahawks D 3 times that season already. If you trust Sam Darnold more than Drake Maye idk what to say. Sam will always let you down.
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Random Libertarian Tech Lead
Random Libertarian Tech Lead@someRandomDev5·
@mpan95 @Brett_Pats You just observed Drake Maye let you down three times in a row in the playoffs and watched him get carried by the other team's offensive injuries. And yet for some reason you believe he won't do it a fourth time in a row against a harder defense and an actual offense. Lol.
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Random Libertarian Tech Lead
Random Libertarian Tech Lead@someRandomDev5·
@mpan95 @Brett_Pats Maybe Drake can score 3 offensive TDs off of 15 possessions again if Sam Darnold manages to throw 5 interceptions like Stroud did. But judging from Seattle's scoreline against the #4 Rams defense, New England's #23 defense probably couldn't make 3 TDs “enough to win” lol.
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Mihir Panchal, DO
Mihir Panchal, DO@mpan95·
@someRandomDev5 @Brett_Pats You’re delusional if you think Rams defense is number 4. They were one of the worst defenses in the playoffs. No other qb scored 3 td’s on the Texans all season. 15 possessions? 1 was the kneel down(lol). The final 2 possessions were them running out the clock.
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Random Libertarian Tech Lead
Random Libertarian Tech Lead@someRandomDev5·
@mpan95 @Brett_Pats 1. It’s 3 of 15. You don't just get to cherry-pick whether a given possession counts or matters lmao. Nobody does that for the 10.2 possession average across the league. 2. You mean the Texans' number two-ranked defense? Seattle is #1 (by a wide margin, at that).
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Mihir Panchal, DO
Mihir Panchal, DO@mpan95·
@someRandomDev5 @Brett_Pats Except you can, what an idiotic logical fallacy. Obviously those possessions don’t count because one is a Hail Mary. One is a knee down and the other 2 are literally just them burning clock. These statistics are meaningless, Houston had the best defense by a wide margin.
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Mihir Panchal, DO
Mihir Panchal, DO@mpan95·
@someRandomDev5 @Brett_Pats They didn’t give up more than 30 points all season. Seahawks got cooked by the buccaneers. Pats defense also didn’t give up 30 points all season.
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Random Libertarian Tech Lead
Random Libertarian Tech Lead@someRandomDev5·
@mpan95 @Brett_Pats The amount of points that a team gives up in a given game is only very indirectly a defensive strength stat. As stated in the broadcast (if you watched the game) the Texans defense almost never had to defend a short field throughout the regular season.
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