I don't think the rise of AGI will lead to a sudden exponential explosion in AI capabilities. There are bottlenecks on the sources of new capability improvements, and horizontally scaling intelligence in silicon (even by a massive factor) doesn't lift those bottlenecks.

AGI is in the continuity of the continual, recursively self-improving capability expansion process that started when humanity developed modern science in the 1700s-1800s. It is the next step of the ladder.

AGI will probably amplify the scientific process rather than break it. Even if there are bottlenecks, a system that can autonomously generate hypotheses, run simulations, and integrate results across domains could shorten feedback loops dramatically. The curve may look continuous in hindsight, but locally it could still feel very steep.