PeterGast

my entire career strategy hangs on a strong belief that we are not going to see fully automated software generation in my lifetime. but we are going to see an end to the ralph-loop, spec-driven-one-shot-dream, and the "end of white collar work" hype. we're already seeing some high profile players in software development start to set their coarse along the same path i've been following these past few years. it starts with "wow" then "i can use my skills to fully automate this" and then it proceeds to "fast but no cognitive ownership" then disappointment, confusion, frustration, and ends with "hey, this isn't going to work guys, we need to be more disciplined and look at the code, keep our cognitive ownership, and just use the tools to improve our outcomes. these are not our replacement, these are our accelerators. it's the same story, different tooling". i'm already there. if a company were to come to me today and say "we tried all the trendy stuff but it just made everything worse, we're losing control of our code base, we need to either ditch these things or make them a power-up" then i am ready for that. if i am wrong, then so be it. my career is over anyway because i have zero interest in giving up cognitive ownership and responsibility (the ability to respond), while remaining accountable. i'd rather wash dishes or stack shelves than submit myself to the horrors of remaining accountable without cognitive ownership, agency, and responsibility.

I just went max bearish equities. However plenty of bull cases exist. The six big things that can make me wrong 1) Collapse of long term oil prices back to the low's 2) The passage of a highly stimulative fiscal package or reconcilliation 3) Manipulation of the Treasury Issuance such that they issue less duration and more bills, and Fed Balance sheet manipulation - These things are really bad for USD 4) AI ROI for all spenders on picks and shovels surprises on the upside vs already lofty earnings expectations AND margin doesnt come from firing workers. 5) Fed cuts short rates more than expected 6) Investors, companies, and banks lever up more than expected to invest and consume (Animal spirits accelerate and persist.) Which absorbs the massive overhang of issuance of government bonds, corporate bonds, IPO's etc which elevated growth expectations depend without a decline in prices, rise in yields.

This guy is a great counter signal. Just like during the tariff debacle, he was bearish all the way up. When this account gets popular you know the bottom is near, even if temporary don’t let him convince you to short the bottom. He’s a permabear, when the war blows over, he was start searching for his next reason to buy poots

Software stocks now account for just 1.4% of total U.S. net exposure, down from about 7% at the start of the year - GS

Also the fact that MICROSOFT which OWNS BILLIONS IN OPENAI EQUITY and is shoving its own AI tool, COPILOT (which sucks) in 78 different interfaces, is getting brutally PRODUCT MOGGED by a competitor IN ITS OWN PRODUCTS is just crazy.