Alman Helvas

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Alman Helvas

Alman Helvas

@AHelvas

Defense Market & Industry Consultant Former Jane's Representative - Indonesia NO QUOTE WITHOUT PRIOR CONSENT Wartawan "ZONA JAKARTA" DILARANG KUTIP TANPA IZIN!!

Jakarta Capital Region เข้าร่วม Şubat 2019
18 กำลังติดตาม9.2K ผู้ติดตาม
Alman Helvas
Alman Helvas@AHelvas·
ID never failed to pay government debt on time to lenders because it's related to market confidence. Include to pay KT-1B and T-50i procurement debt to Exim Bank of KR. All government debt payment managed by MoF's DGBFRM. It was another case for KF-21 cost share, managed by MoD.
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Alman Helvas
Alman Helvas@AHelvas·
US$28 billion foreign loan allocation for defense procurement can be reduced by half while ID still can buy required defense article. Even with US$14 billion, it's still enough to import fighter jets, frigates, submarine and other related equipment. It's about fiscal discipline.
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Alman Helvas
Alman Helvas@AHelvas·
Are you sure government can keep fiscal deficit below 3% without budget cut for free meal, village cooperative and defense procurement programs? Are you sure you won't dig deeper on your pocket to buy fuel if these programs not cut? Budget cut on defense procurement is necessity.
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Alman Helvas
Alman Helvas@AHelvas·
ID's Su-35 program finance by BA BUN because no lender wants to lend money. ID's fake MRTT program also finance by BA BUN with similar reason. The usage of BA BUN allocated for crap equipment. Will Buk SAM finance by BA BUN? What's the relation between BA BUN with fiscal deficit?
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Alman Helvas
Alman Helvas@AHelvas·
ID's homework with Rafale hasn't finished yet as long as it's not bought MICA, (additional) Meteor and AM39 missiles and dozens of spare engines. Like Airbus, MBDA applied robust compliance on defense trade with any partner, include ID. One of ID's enemies is robust compliance.
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Alman Helvas
Alman Helvas@AHelvas·
With current war in the ME, negative outlook by rating agencies, oil price hike, IDR depreciation against USD, can ID fiscally survive by not widening deficit cap? Yes, it can! However, the measures include budget cut on defense spending. Like to reduce foreign loan allocation.
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Alman Helvas
Alman Helvas@AHelvas·
A few months ago, there was a brilliant idea to replace gas turbine engine with diesel one on a ship once that ship owned by ID. Taking into account that existing ID navy's ships already adopted gas turbine engine, why no idea brings up to replace such engine with diesel engine?
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Alman Helvas
Alman Helvas@AHelvas·
A gulf existed between Indonesia's jargon of "we should be ready for war" and the reality itself. Regardless of Indonesia is buying or will buy new fighter jets and frigates, no concern about readiness and availability of existing equipment which will be employed if war occur.
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Alman Helvas
Alman Helvas@AHelvas·
In the end of March till early April 2026, ID leader expected to do EA tour. Seems CN will be part of it but unconfirmed yet. While visit to ROK include agenda on defense, it's unknown yet whether defense matter also part of agenda during CN tour. J-10 chance isn't good so far.
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Alman Helvas
Alman Helvas@AHelvas·
Fiscal deficit is a huge issue today for ID thanks to war in the Middle East. If ID government want to control deficit below three percent cap, the only available option is to do budget cut across the board. Budget cut on defense spending is neccessity. cnbcindonesia.com/opini/20260316…
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Alman Helvas
Alman Helvas@AHelvas·
ID government has two options available today regarding state budget's deficit cap. First, remove three percent deficit cap and do reckless spending. Second, apply severe budget cut across the board. The second option with hurt ID government ambition on reckless defense spending.
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Alman Helvas
Alman Helvas@AHelvas·
The BA BUN usage for defense spending is expanding in recent years. This trend indirectly contributed to the possibility of hitting fiscal deficit cap. Whether you like it or not, defense spending also contributed to government reckless spending because of no fiscal discipline.
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Alman Helvas
Alman Helvas@AHelvas·
Due to sustainment issue, KR proposed the transfer of a single seater of KF-21 prototype to ID will be conducted on early 2029. ID should have facility and equipment to sustain that jet. Negotiation still ongoing to settle some outstanding issues regarding prototype transfer.
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Alman Helvas
Alman Helvas@AHelvas·
The fate of incoming ID's aircraft carrier has been written in the wall. Unless something happen, the written fate won't be good for ID in the long term. It's all about competing interest between industrial perspective vs operational perspective. Let's see what happen next.
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Alman Helvas
Alman Helvas@AHelvas·
On advance technology, you can't apply kind of free and active policy like on foreign policy. You should take side to get and master advance technology. Indonesia did it during the Cold War, particularly since 1970s until 1990s. Technology isn't similar with foreign policy.
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Alman Helvas
Alman Helvas@AHelvas·
Thanks to ECA provided by HM Government, ID must use MBDA Sea Captor on the Arrowhead 140 next batch. Repeat: Sea Ceptor! NOT Sejenis Sea Ceptor! ID only available option is take it or leave it. No Turkey's missile! Such string attached on ECA is perfect! No UK money for Turkey.
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Alman Helvas
Alman Helvas@AHelvas·
Two rating agencies has downgraded ID's outlook and it has direct impact on ID government effort to make new debt for defense procurement. Meanwhile, ID preferred to do procurement with countries adopted less compliance. ID also preferred FPC for new debt.cnbcindonesia.com/opini/20260310…
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Alman Helvas
Alman Helvas@AHelvas·
Due to certain matters, seems IN government isn't happy with ID government on story about Brahmos missile contract. Still need further measures ahead before contract enter into force. Regarding Brahmos, once buy by ID, does ID have lofty goal to integrate it with PK's Link 17?
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Alman Helvas
Alman Helvas@AHelvas·
ID won't acquire A330 MRTT until end of this decade, except something happen on diplomatic realm. Whether ID will activate option of four A400M still a big question mark. What happen with AIR product? Current ID's procurement atmosphere against any firm which uphold compliance.
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Alman Helvas
Alman Helvas@AHelvas·
It seems there are two options for sub program. First, to buy advance sub which exporter provides ECA scheme (low interest rate). Second, to buy mediocre sub which exporter can't provide ECA scheme. Means ID should use FPC scheme (high interest rate). Which one ID would prefer?
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