Alex Mas

What is even more interesting is that markets got it mostly "right", while experts wondered why prices were not shooting up to 200. There is a lesson there.

@jt_kerwin @jbarro I hope reason prevails. This could be fixed over a game of tennis.

@AMLabEcon @jbarro Yeah but you gotta make the regents actually do that

Seems like time for a ballot measure to require the UC system to use test-based admissions

@SFGaliani At least UMD is test-optional. At UC test is prohibited. Putting aside the multiple objectives, this is an important piece of information on student preparation and achievement that is missing that makes it a much harder problem.

I do not think admissions are random. Universities are clearly pursuing multiple objectives beyond academic achievement. At the same time, it seems undeniable that the process has become less transparent than it once was, particularly at institutions where admissions are expected to advance a broad set of social objectives, and at public universities that face significant financial pressures and therefore have incentives to enroll more out-of-state students who pay higher tuition. Whether one agrees or disagrees with those goals is a separate question. My point is simply that when admissions are balancing many objectives simultaneously, it becomes much harder for students and families to know what level and type of achievement will make an applicant competitive.

I often get asked by parents, what does my kid need to achieve to earn a place at UC Berkeley? The answer is, I don’t know. There used to be an implicit social contract that if a California resident excels in school and is a very high achiever, there would be a predictable path to one of the leading campuses of the University of California system. Until the early-2000s this was explicit in that between 50-75% of incoming classes had to be admitted on the basis of academic criteria alone (GPA, SATs, APs). A high school student basically knew what they had to hit to get admitted to Cal. UCs no longer considers SAT/ACT scores, and letters of recommendation are generally not part of the application. The remaining academic record is heavily based on grades, course-taking, "school context", supplemented by personal insight questions (in the AI era!) and activities. But in an era of substantial grade inflation, transcripts have become a noisy signal. True academic achievement matters much less than it used to. The result is, while not literally random, highly unpredictable and illegible admissions. For California families, it is no longer clear what level of achievement is enough for their kids, or even what kind of achievement the system is trying to reward. I suspect that is not what most families in California want.

@engineer09635 @NilsHeadley I'm suggest improvements to UC admissions with the understanding that we can't at the same time solve every problem in the education system upstream, like different AP offerings in high schools. Better admissions process can attenuate some of those problems, though.

@AMLabEcon @NilsHeadley Wait you said you only went for the first-best solution, now... you are saying "hey it's not ideal but it helps!" Tone feels totally different, as if you'll say whatever to make your point about SATs

@suetheob How does top 12% work in practice? Community college and transfer has been an option for a long time and is a great path to UCs that's opened many doors. This has been the social mobility gateway. Not muddying the waters at first year admissions.

@AMLabEcon Top 12 % of graduation class gets an admit to A UC campus. Or a student can start at a community college and transfer. Berkeley and CalPoly will always be hard to get into.

@NilsHeadley It's not a panacea, but including SAT in admissions would reduce the impact of that disparity.

@AMLabEcon So what do you say to a student at John Swett HS which only offers 6 AP classes? She could take every AP class offered and still not be deemed competitive with a child who attends Campolindo which offers over 20? An SAT doesn’t address any of the breadth of education.

@sickOfWFH Most kids are above average to their parents : ) I think a lot of people would appreciate a process that transparently rewards any success their kid may have.

@AMLabEcon I suspect you overestimate the avg California family. Of 400k CA HS grads last year, fewer than 5k enrolled at UCB… just over 1%. I’m guessing a majority of those that did not are looking for any advantage they can get. VERY few families have students that would get in on merit.

@dominikmuggli Indeed. This is why 1400+ UC faculty (including myself) recently signed a letter to reinstate the SAT in admissions.

@AMLabEcon Then some sort of consistent entrance exam for all candidates would be best, which would allow for objective evaluation of all candidates.

@BierVicki That is certainly the case when SATs are not included in the assessment.

@AMLabEcon Trouble is that with the number of applications badly exceeding the number of spots the selecting process among qualified kids is essentially random

@dominikmuggli I strive for the first-best solution, not the fourth-best.

@AMLabEcon Seems pretty random right now, according to your insights. At least that way it would be transparent and students and parents wouldn’t have to chase some obscure target.

@dominikmuggli Because merit is a better criteria than random selection.

@AMLabEcon Why not randomize candidate selection via lottery, then test them after the first year for performance? Pass: continue at Cal Fail: go elsewhere

From the piece: The SAT was completely abolished for UC admissions by a Board of Regents decision in 2020...This decision went against the unanimous, data-driven recommendation of the UC faculty task force—and against many of the Board of Regents’ own stated convictions.

@minilek "...admit the students who would benefit the most from a Berkeley degree, say as measured by increase in lifetime earnings." In levels or in logs? It's plausible that the SAT requirement maximizes lifetime earnings increase of students in levels.

I spoke with someone who contributed to another report, separate from the academic senate report, that advised Napolitano in her SAT decision-making. What he said, paraphrasing: “Jelani, what if the admissions objective is not to admit the students who will perform the best academically, but to admit the students who would benefit the most from a Berkeley degree, say as measured by increase in lifetime earnings.” Of course, if you start producing graduates that are substantially weaker, high-paying employers will notice and cut back on hiring your graduates. Their counter is some idealized/wishful thinking that the university experience is so transformational that it can turn any student into a diamond coming out, even if they didn’t know how to add fractions coming in. Link to the second report: ucop.edu/institutional-…

When an obstructionist Berkeley resident invoked an environmental quality regulation to block new student housing, the CA state legislator removed the relevant regulatory barrier in a matter of weeks. When there is a political will to act in CA higher-education, change can happen very quickly. The fact that the reintroduction of standardized testing in admissions is being slow-tracked in an endless bureaucratic process is a political decision.

New from me for @TheAtlantic: the consequences of rising national debt and high deficits feel far away, but actually they're already here. The government’s deficits have saddled many American families with higher costs, largely from rising interest rates. 1/

I've been telling everyone that an AI that can clean the SIPP in 5 minutes is too powerful for public use.

"The first workgroup will consider the use of standardized test scores in freshman admissions, while the second will focus on reviewing the UC system’s current “A-G” admissions framework “to determine whether A-G requirements adequately prepare first-year applicants for success.” Both groups are required to present a final report with their findings to the BOARS chair by May 15, 2027." dailycal.org/news/uc/joinin…

@AMLabEcon Can this be real

Disappointed to learn that the result of the 1400+ UC faculty asking that SATs be reinstated in admissions is a blue ribbon commision that will produce a report on May 2027.

We are on track for a full decade of an admissions policy that harms high achieving students, especially those from less advantaged backgrounds.