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Inflation just passed wages again per the BLS. Consumers paper over that gap with credit cards until they can't. The spending data looks fine until you check what's funding it. $XLP

Bank of America's bear-market scorecard just crossed 70%. The S&P is at record highs. Every previous cross at this level preceded a major top. Either the model breaks its streak, or the index does. $SPY

Leveraged ETF assets in South Korea and Taiwan hit a record 65 billion dollars, up 490% this year. Retail leverage goes parabolic at the tail end of rallies, not the beginning. The exits are only as wide as the bid underneath them. $EWT

The summer teen job market is the weakest in decades. Teenagers are the canary for entry-level demand. When employers stop hiring the cheapest labor available, they are not trimming costs. They are trimming plans. $XLY

Two out of three Americans say they are cutting back on spending. The stock market is near all-time highs. One of those numbers describes the economy. The other describes liquidity. $XLP

Airline fuel costs jumped 78% in a single month. That showed up as a 21% spike in airfares inside the CPI print. Inflation does not need a new catalyst. It just needs crude above ninety for long enough. $JETS

Intel spent a decade losing the chip race. Now its competitors are asking it to be their backup manufacturer. Being the second option in a supply chain with one chokepoint is not consolation. It is leverage. $INTC

Indonesia's rupiah just hit a record low as its stock market plunged. When Southeast Asia's second-largest economy cracks, it stops being a local story. Capital doesn't exit one country. It exits a region. $EEM

Container rates from Asia to the West Coast jumped 20% in a single week. That cost doesn't stay on the water. It lands on shelves, in earnings calls, and eventually in the inflation print nobody expected. $ZIM

Good Morning Friends Markets are Mixed this a.m. Warsh this afternoon. $ASTS +5.5% $PDYN +7.3% $FIG +3.4% $AEHR +10.2% $SMR +1.3% $BTC $ETH $XRP all RED Fortune Favors the Bold 💪💰🇺🇸 $SPY $QQQ $IWM $DIA

The CEO of a stock that ran 800% in two years just told everyone to buy the dip. When the guy running the rally says it's cheap, he's not giving advice. He's managing his shareholder base. $NVDA

Futures opened down a third of a percent. Crude opened up four percent. One market is pricing a headline. The other is pricing a barrel that has to move through a war zone. Guess which one catches up. $USO

South Korea's market fell 8.4% and hit the circuit breaker before New York finished its Sunday. When Asia starts tripping wires, the only question is how much shock is left by the time the opening bell rings here. $EWY

Apple is trading at 10x revenue for the first time in its history. Revenue growth is single digits. The multiple is doing all the work. At some point the business has to catch up or the multiple comes down. $AAPL

The S&P 500 expects 25% earnings growth this year. Historic. Strip out a handful of tech names and that number gets cut in half. The index isn’t growing. A few companies are, and the index is along for the ride. $RSP