WelsHODL

It's interesting to see the overlap between Bitcoin's 200WMA and its estimated Cost of Production. First off: the price (~$74,000) is sitting within about 1% the power law 'average' production cost. 2nd: these metrics suggest we're not where you think we are in the market cycle. - - - - - - - You'll notice there are several of these 'plateaus' in the 200WMA - and when they transition from one plateau to the next one up, typically pushing the WMA itself ABOVE the CoP, it is during these transitions when a bull run happens. This time - since the FTX crash/end of 2022 - the price rose 7.8x despite have NO detectable plateau-plateau transition - in fact that whole time, the 200WMA has been trending downward, the same as how it has done every time during an 'accumulation market,' NOT a bull market. I believe this supports the ISM PMI theory; this has NOT been a bull run, its been a pseudo-bull run, similar to 2019. Of course, this also implies that we HAVE BEEN down the bear market path for some time, and once the business cycle picks up again (may be happening in a matter of months or less), Bitcoin price could start to experience the turnaround we've all been watching for. Current BTC Price: $74,324 200-Week MA: $58,751 (BTC is +26.5% above) CoP Power Law: $73,523 (BTC is +1.1% above)

February 19, 2026. The day I decided to start a small $MSTR short position. This day will go down in history as the start of an epic run. I’m talking non stop vertical green candles coming. I’m sacrificing myself for the entire bitcoin/crypto army. Please, when your bags pump so hard and u make so much money that you don’t know what to do with it, remember who made the sacrifice. Love yall ❤️