
Kirill
917 posts

Kirill
@BetQuant
Sharing Value & Narratives | Research | Crypto | AI Probability & Opinion | #Crypto https://t.co/HEOFelYRRa















. @Polymarket will turn on fees for most market categories starting March 30th. The fee structure varies and is downward-parabolic, depending on the market state and the per-share price. So users pay the most when shares are priced at $0.5 and pay progressively less at the edges. To estimate annualised revenue, we sampled the last 30 days of volume across different categories and applied the new fee structure. Since the fee structure varies, we take 30% of the peak rate as an average rate for the analysis. In the last 30 days, Polymarket did $9.55b in trading volume, and with the same metrics, we estimate revenue of about $25m, which would be $300m annualised at current volume levels. At a $20b valuation, it would be a 67x multiple; at $9b (ICE investment), a 30x multiple. On the other hand, @Kalshi is running at an annualised revenue of $1.5b (reported by Bloomberg), implying a revenue multiple of 15x based on their recent round at a valuation of $22b. Additionally, the Polymarket numbers are expected to go higher as they launch Polymarket U.S.

FT Exclusive: Traders made bets worth half a billion dollars in the oil market about 15 minutes before Donald Trump’s post touting 'productive' talks with Iran sent the price of crude tumbling ft.trib.al/5jnFcCt








Backpack TGE tomorrow. Hype is kinda low even though the project is clearly tier1. The market isn’t doing great right now. But I’m waiting. Still unclear how they’ll do with points people who didn’t pass KYC. Unfortunately FDV on @Polymarket is $300M. Would love to see $1B of @Backpack.












