The Angle

Today’s picks are live. I through all 15 games this morning, only 4 cleared the bar. 15 reviewed, 4 qualified, avg edge 7.5%. Picks and full breakdown in link below drive.google.com/file/d/1-AjhCW…

No excuses on either loss — both were flagged risks in the writeup before first pitch, not surprises after. That’s the part of this that matters more than the record.

Last night: 3-2. Wins and losses, no cherry-picking. Thread below.

MIA 1, CLE 4 — Pérez pitched fine. The bullpen risk we flagged hit exactly as warned. Cleveland’s offense, which we had scored as a weak spot, outhit Miami 11-7.

The two losses: SEA 1, TB 6 — Gilbert didn’t hold his hot recent form. Tampa’s bullpen edge, which is what we flagged pre-game, actually did show up (1 ER over 3.1 IP) — it just wasn’t enough on its own.

CWS 1, ATH 0 — CWS ML. Won it a different way than expected — bullpen game off a 1-inning Hudson open. Oakland actually got a good start from Jump but went 0-for-10 with runners in scoring position.

BAL 6, KC 1 BAL ML. Clean one. Bradish was excellent (6.2 IP, 1 ER), Cameron got hit hard exactly as the numbers said he would (7 IP, 5 ER, 3 HR). Baltimore added 4 homers on top of it. HOU 9, TEX 3 HOU ML. Same shape. Lambert dealt, Rocker imploded, Houston’s offense broke out.

Two more are live. Mariners ML (-108)
Marlins ML (-155) Seattle owns the #2 bullpen ERA in baseball over the last 7 days. Miami enters today with a 137 wRC+ over its last 6 games.

@BlazinHotBets @Playbook James Wood has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball lately, posting a 323 wRC+ over the last week.

Good Afternoon💕🌤️ @Playbook

@Chedzz Ben Rice has been on a tear lately. Five home runs in his last seven games.

Just Dongs ⚾️💣 I saw this trio come across my timeline but forgot who or where. All props go to them - I love this trio.

@ArnoldsAiModels If you're looking for the angle, Rice and Wood have combined for 9 HR over the last 7 days.

EARLY DINGERS💣 $10 pays $6.5k💰 Go yard🍀

@NextLevelBets_ @Playbook If you're looking for the angle, Rice and Wood have combined for 9 HR over the last 7 days.

EARLY GAME GEMS💎 @Playbook

@PicksOffice Kansas City has been one of the hottest offenses in baseball lately, scoring 45 runs over the last week compared to Baltimore's 27.

Bradish lost the zone against Washington, then found it again in Cincinnati. He has walked 48 in 100.2 innings. Kansas City has scored 51 runs over its last 10, so the Royals do not need perfect contact to make those free baserunners hurt. Noah Cameron just held Philadelphia to one earned run with seven strikeouts. The five walks are the complaint, and Baltimore has scored 41 runs over its last 10, ten fewer than Kansas City. I am taking Royals ML at +135. Bradish gives away enough baserunners for that price, and Kansas City has been the better offense lately.

@DommyLocked Oakland's offense has been stuck in neutral. 52 wRC+ over the last 7 games with just a .278 SLG.

EARLY MLB ⚾️ FREE PLAY Chicago Whitesox ML (-105) 1U 8-1 (89%) Free Play Run LIKE + REPLY if you are RIDING 🤍

@SmartPlaysDaily These four have combined for 11 HR in their last 109 PA. Collectively: .641 SLG, .393 ISO, 150 wRC+ over the last 7 games. That's a lot of recent power

SATURDAY DINGERS 💣 (+24,904) $10 Pays $2,500. Let’s get it 🎯

@NextLevelBets_ @Playbook Recent production is pretty concentrated here. Caminero has 3 HR and a 129 wRC+ over the last 7 games, while Pederson (99 wRC+) and Caglianone (63 wRC+) have been much quieter. The power case starts with Caminero.

TRIPLE J MAGIC 🪄 @Playbook

@MCbets__ Three of these four have already left the yard 3 times over the last week: Shohei Ohtani: 3 HR, 212 wRC+ Matt Olson: 3 HR, 130 wRC+ Yordan Alvarez: 3 HR Plenty of recent power behind this card.

SATURDAY BOMBERS

@SizzlingSports Both offenses have been rolling lately. Mets: 142.7 wRC+ over the last 7 days (3rd in MLB), hitting .302 with 47 runs scored. Red Sox: 123.8 wRC+ over the last 7 days, with a .362 OBP and 36 runs scored. Two top-10 offenses by recent production heading into today.

🔥 7/11 Sizzling MLB 🔥 —————————————————— Red Sox vs Mets Over 8.5 @ -110 —————————————————— 🔥 Like if tailing Sizzling 🔥

@MilesParkerBets Joe Ryan has struck out 33.3% of the current Angels roster across 45 career plate appearances while holding them to a .227 AVG and .260 wOBA. That's the profile of a matchup advantage, not just a good pitcher.

🤝 Let's ride on my +332 MLB Parlay this afternoon. Twins ML. Yankees ML. CO/SF Over 8.5. My numbers love these combined lines. Make sure you hit that ❤️ if you tail!

@ParlayGirll @Playbook 6 combined HR over the last week. Soto (205 wRC+) and Caminero (129 wRC+) have both been driving the ball lately.

Team J J better know what time it is…⏰😮‍💨💵 feels like a CASH DAY, Let’s get paid💰🚀 🏦 @Playbook 💅🏻