Kylemander 🦎

XOM announces 6% of their production is off-line. Wow.

🌾 A Ceasefire Won’t Feed You: The Strait of Hormuz Fertiliser Crisis • One third of all globally traded fertiliser transits the Strait of Hormuz, and just 21 tankers have made the crossing since 28 February: urea at the US Gulf hub has surged 35% to above $800 per ton in the weeks since the blockade, hitting farmers right as spring planting begins across the Northern Hemisphere. • Unlike oil, no G7 country holds a strategic fertiliser reserve, and QatarEnergy has halted urea production entirely after invoking force majeure: when this supply stops, there is no emergency stockpile to draw on, and ship captains brave enough to run the strait carry oil before fertiliser because it is worth more per ton. • Even if the strait reopens fully under this two-week ceasefire, over 1,000 vessels are backlogged, insurance premiums are up 300%, and restarting mothballed chemical plants takes weeks of recommissioning: the logistics crisis begins when the shooting stops. • The US faces a projected two-million-ton urea shortfall this spring, Australia’s stocks could run dry by mid-April, and Brazil cannot fill 30% of its phosphate needs: fertiliser decisions made in the next few weeks determine whether autumn harvests come in full or short. Related tickers: $CF — CF Industries (largest US nitrogen fertiliser producer) $NTR — Nutrien (world’s largest fertiliser company) $MOS — Mosaic Company (major phosphate and potash producer) $OCI — OCI Global (nitrogen producer, significant Middle East exposure) $IPL — Incitec Pivot (Australian fertiliser, direct Hormuz exposure) $IPI — Intrepid Potash (US potash producer) $UAN — CVR Partners (US nitrogen fertiliser) $YARA — Yara International (European nitrogen giant) $DBA — Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (broad agriculture ETF) $WEAT — Teucrium Wheat Fund (wheat price proxy) $CORN — Teucrium Corn Fund (corn price proxy) $MOO — VanEck Agribusiness ETF (agribusiness basket) $ADM — Archer-Daniels-Midland (grain trading, downstream impact) $BG — Bunge Global (grain trading, fertiliser distribution) $DE — Deere & Co (farm equipment, planting season bellwether) $ZIM — ZIM Integrated Shipping (container shipping, Gulf exposure) $HAFNI — Hafnia (product tanker, Gulf routes) $STNG — Scorpio Tankers (product tankers)

BREAKING: NASA FIRMS satellite data shows a massive 310 MW fire at Saudi Aramco's Abqaiq facility, the world's largest crude oil processing site. Routine gas flares at oil facilities are 10-20 MW. Abqaiq handles up to 7 million barrels per day.

Terrifying reality check. A Top US General explicitly admits the ceasefire with Iran is merely a "pause." He confirms the Pentagon is fully prepared to instantly resume their devastating bombing campaign. The Trump administration doesn't want peace, they are just reloading!

"TWO WEEKS TO SLOW THE SPREAD." "TWO WEEKS TO NEGOTIATE PEACE." THE GOVERNMENT'S FAVOURITE LIE HAS ALWAYS BEEN A TIMELINE. March 2020. Two weeks to flatten the curve. Stay home. Protect the vulnerable. Control the spread. It will be over soon. Two weeks became two months. Two months became two years. Emergency powers expanded. Businesses closed permanently. Trillions were printed. Inflation exploded. And the people who questioned the timeline were called dangerous. Now it is April 2026. Five weeks of airstrikes on Iran. 13,000 sorties. Oil up 40%. Gasoline up 57 cents. Diesel at $5.45. Strait of Hormuz closed. The global economy buckling under the weight of an energy shock that is repricing everything you buy. And the solution? A "two-week ceasefire." Hours before the deadline, the president posted "a whole civilization will die tonight." Two hours later, he announced a pause. Iran says its hands are still on the trigger. Israel says the ceasefire doesn't cover Lebanon. Both sides are calling it a victory. Neither side has agreed on what was actually agreed to. The 10-point proposal from Iran demands the lifting of ALL sanctions, removal of US forces from the region, reparations, and the right to continue enriching uranium. The US wants the opposite of every single one of those things. This is not a ceasefire. This is a timeout dressed as diplomacy. The pattern is always the same. A crisis emerges. The government says it will be brief. Emergency measures are temporary. Two weeks. Then the weeks stretch. The powers expand. The money gets printed. The cost gets passed to you. And anyone who noticed the pattern last time gets told "this is different." It is never different. Two weeks to slow the spread became the largest expansion of government spending in modern history. Two weeks to negotiate peace will become the justification for a $1.5 trillion defense budget, another wave of borrowing, and another round of inflation you pay for at the grocery store for years to come. They don't need you to believe the timeline. They just need you to accept the first two weeks.