Clewy 🦁

@aleabitoreddit Guys please refrain from sending him direct messages, and let him focus on investment thesis. You wouldn't want him to burn out and quit this suddenly.

Just a PSA: (I normally try to stay on topic) But I get like 50-100 new message requests a day... I try my best to respond to all your direct messages, but it's really hard to keep up. So sending follow ups does push it to the top if there's something urgent or I missed a reply. I do try and read all the comments though (esp. since I need to remove a lot of the fake account replies nowadays)

@aleabitoreddit You sure that was enough sleep?

I’m personally a fan of the functional monopolies. Here’s 6 of them that I own. 1. $TOWA (6315) - HBM4 Compression 2. MSSCorp (6830) - CPO Inspection 3. $LPK - Glass Core Substrates 4. $SOI - Silicon Photonics Substrates 5. $AXTI - End-to-End (mineral, refinery, production) InP substrates. 6. $ALRIB - Quantum / MBE (hybrid level systems). I can’t give recommendations. But for me personally, I wouldn’t buy all of them today eg. AXT until there’s clarity over share authorization + it ran like 1000% already within a small timeframe. But just thematically as you’ve seen, they tend to outperform so I’m holding all regardless. There’s a lot more of these out there that you should definitely research yourself. Always better to teach the thought process so people can do this themselves.

@aleabitoreddit @tim_pscl Thank you sweet darling. Would appreciate if you could obfuscate the tickers to prevent bots frontrunning us.

@tim_pscl I'll make a full list and release it to the public, just doing research into everything right now.

uh... Korean equities look insane? How are there so many random KR companies supplying to Sk Hynix, Samsung, $NVDA, or $INTC trading at tiny valuations? Yet the moment NASDAQ listed $LWLG gets one "speculative development contract" with $TSEM it gets sent up 400% to ~$2B MC. Are Korean equities a trap or gold mine? or are certain US equities just regarded?

@aleabitoreddit Congrats to $SIVE for crossing 1 billion usd market cap 😊

It's pretty clear by now that $SIVE is the likely holy grail silicon photonics supplier for $AAPL... Markets just don't know about it (this is called Alpha). If you're curious how to map Apple to Sivers: > "US Fortune 100" customer. > RFQ (request for quote) for 50 MILLION units a year. > Apple sold roughly 53.9 million Apple Watches in 2022 and averages between 38m-50m units annually > $SIVE / Carnegie research released 135 Wavelength arechitectures, which matches Apple application specifications. literally... what other US Fortune 100 company in world can casually produce 50 million units of consumer wearables a year? Even Samsung does 10-15M units. That coincidentally matches with the laser architecture and applications. $SIVE on their X did tease volume ramp from development timelines, which I guessed was Apple (H2 2027 ramp or H1 2028), but could be Ayar or Jabil.

@aleabitoreddit Thank you so much for everything, really! 🙏

Appreciate the X revenue sharing program! I actually end up passing it along to local charities I like, but don't normally share. I'm especially a big fan of local pet shelters, since my dog passed away last year and I'm still not completely over it. And addressing homelessness too, since I did make a lot of homeless friends back at UC Berkeley. At a certain point, you don't need more money. But it does help maximize the positive impact you can have, which is why I'm still on X (and not retiring, which I can do). It just feels fulfilling to live an honest life, be true to yourself, and see how much of a positive change you can make in this world before you go? My goal on X has always been how to help the retail investor the most... compared to traditional models of selling every single piece of alpha to institutions first. Actions speak louder than words, hence why subscriptions are $1 and I publish all my ideas/thought process for free to everyone here (even though I could charge $50). So people can do what I do themselves when I leave one day! In terms of next steps, I thought it would be fun if retail had the exact same edge as Citadel and the other hedge funds? So I was planning on releasing custom LLMs for free (I was a research scientist in the past you know) and using the extra subscription revenue to subsidize compute/data costs. Think it will be fun!

@aleabitoreddit @artazc44161 Wow daddy I'm rich. You are gonna be my new daddy 😊

@artazc44161 Yeah $SOI is up 140%+ since my thesis post. This is what you call, frontrunning instituions with Serenity.

Surprised $SIVE isn’t up higher from the $GOOGL ASIC news with Marvell. Even $MRVL is up 6.24%+ overnight. Markets still probably don’t know where the upstream laser source comes from yet?

@aleabitoreddit Thank you, you're gonna make some of us escape poverty. 😭

IT'S OFFICIAL: $JBL to use $SIVE Lasers for their optical transceivers. Today: "Jabil plans to develop a 1.6T linear receive optical (LRO) transceiver module using Sivers’ high-performance Distributed Feedback (DFB) lasers" Jabil Photonics: :Working with Sivers will allow us to deliver a 1.6T LRO solution that meets both data center performance and power targets at scale" Where have you seen the LIGHT SOURCE for hyperscaler supply chains... At a $500m MC? We had this hinted from physical sources at OFC, but many institutions needed actual confirmation like this.

@aleabitoreddit Lol u catapulted $NCI up by 15% in a short moment

A Guide by Serenity: How to Cripple the Western Hyperscaler buildout with just $170m. Just take over Nippon Chemical (4092) with $169m! For InP substrates, you need: Indium and High Purity Phosphorus. Thought $AXTI was a bottleneck? NCI is the bottleneck of the bottleneck. NCI is actually the leader of the high purity red phosphorus chokepoint holding 26-27% of the market share (Rasa has less share, then the rest is China). And they export to $AXTI, Sumitomo, JX that need it to make InP substrates. 
So… if you have $160m to spend to acquire NCI (plus Rasa as smaller capacity), you can remove the leading Western world’s production of 6N/7N red phosphorus needed to make InP substrates! And without InP substrates: no photonics. Fun fact: China’s tech companies would get pretty disrupted with it too by NCI. For $AXTI, the mapping/reliance is actually pretty interesting: - AXT's Tongmei outlined its structural reliance on importing high-purity precursor materials from Japan on their STAR Market listing 
- WITS data showing ~$460/kg high-purity phosphorus flowing from Japan into China So they secretly do depend on NCI. 
China does have capacity like Wylton Chemical, Qin Xi New Materials, Jinding Electronics, and Chuxiong Chuanzhi, Guizhou Wylton Jinglin Electronic Materials as well. However, they’re all smaller players so can’t make up for high purity red phosphorus capacity provided by NCI for InP substrate production at scale. $LITE CEO already said inp substrates keeps him up at night. So now with NCI, you can give the guy permanent insomnia? For just $169M. So here's what the supply chain looks like: -> DGC phosphate rock mine and ships it to NCI -> NCI refines Yellow Phosphorus into High Purity Red Phosphorus -> Sumitomo / JX / AXT melt the Red Phosphorus with Indium to grow InP Substrates -> $COHR / $LITE fab InP substrates into Lasers -> Innolight/Fabrinet package them into 800G/1.6T transceivers -> $NVDA / $GOOGL use them for ASIC/GPU clusters. 
And basically, the entire West depends on NCI to make InP substrates for photonics. I hold some very small positions, just for fun. However, Japan is not well known for price hiking. So you’d probably run into regulatory problems eg. FEFTA if you bought the company and hiked prices 15000% (like government seizing back the company once they realize)… Maybe 30-50% hikes is possible to compress fwd p/e? But very likely wont end up like $AXTI. 
 Regardless, this company is a massive, massive national security risk priced at ~$160m. As for fundamentals, they’re trading at .54 book value and a forward P/E of 11.4 so it’s probably undervalued anyway. TLDR: -> Is it the next $AXTI? No. -> Is it an unknown structural bottleneck + critical vulnerability of the Western hyperscaler buildout with photonics? Yes. -> Is there still room for re-rating? Just reverting to Book Value of 1 is immediate 80-85% upside. Maybe more if you give it multiples past 11 fwd p/e. Regardless, it’s fun to find a major point of failure in the hyperscaler supply chains for $169m.

@KobeissiLetter All his threats are just lies.

BREAKING: President Trump issues a warning to Iran: "If any of these ships come anywhere close to our blockade, they will be immediately eliminated, using the same system of kill that we use against the drug dealers on boats at Sea."

@aleabitoreddit Master, please raise some disciples and create an empire. Include me too, I will make an altar for you. 😊

Pretty confident about $SIVE regarding institutions coming in next. Laser supplier for $MRVL, $JBL, and a few others. Valuation disconnect makes no sense when they’re designed into hyperscaler supply chains at ~$430M. And you look at CPO and 1.6T transceiver ramp over next few years, it’s insanity. It looks like the start of the next $LITE over the next year, imo institutions probably late to the party due to Swedish listing.

@aleabitoreddit Jensen: Serenity will take care of you

$NVDA is driving CPO, extremely, extremely hard. As seen with investments in $MRVL, $LITE, and $COHR. But, what's interesting is: CPO timelines are also happening way earlier than expected. New report: " $ASE Reportedly to Break Ground on Six New Plants in 2026, CPO Mass Production Expected to Begin This Year " "He also revealed for the first time that mass production of CPO is expected to begin this year" Probably a good time to frontrun CPO related names like $SIVE (lasers), Win Semi (foundry), $TSEM (foundry), $SOI (substrates), and others around now, before ramp really picks up. The demand curve goes up exponentially all the way past 2029+, and I'm sure they'll break many projections. But basically, I was talking about frontrunning CPO/SiPH names before OFC/GTC. Turned out I was right on timing again? CPO Ramp now looks like it's beginning H2 2026, get ready.

@aleabitoreddit Maybe all 3 ends up 10x? 😊

I cooked pretty hard finding $IQE? Another massive triple digit gain. Up 23%+ today. I said earlier that next $AXTI 10x would be either $AAOI, $IQE, or $SIVE. We'll see which one ends up winning.

@aleabitoreddit The reporters just needed a narrative for viewers to read their article.

@KobeissiLetter Iran was a test for trump. We are so disappointed in trump

BREAKING: President Trump says the Iran War was a "test" for NATO and he is "so disappointed in NATO." "Remember my statements in a number of months from now... never forget," Trump says.

@wallstengine Lol he killed everyone then found out there's no one left to talk to.

TRUMP: WE WANT TO TALK TO IRAN, THERE IS NOBODY TO TALK TO

@WatcherGuru Yeah, just keep yapping like a cheerleader, then take action 10 years later

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 SEC Chair Paul Atkins says the agency is setting up "framework" for crypto so people can have certainty.

@WatcherGuru I guess his job is just to talk without action

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 SEC Chair Paul Atkins says "the SEC interpretation on crypto assets is just the beginning."

@zerohedge Israel didn't have good ties with the gulf states in the past, maybe Israel is trying to get Iran to attack gulf states and they become the biggest winner here.

ISRAELI ATTACK ON IRAN'S SOUTH PARS GAS FIELD WAS COORDINATED WITH U.S. BUT WILL LIKELY NOT BE REPEATED, THREE ISRAELI OFFICIALS SAY

@WatcherGuru This is how bad warsh is for crypto and stocks

JUST IN: Bitcoin falls under $71,000

@tenten19901107 你还叫他孙哥？😄