Connor Meissner

FPL FIXTURE ANALYSIS🧵 Last season, I finished 278th in the world on a differential chip strategy I didn't fixate on what SHOULD happen, but instead accounted for all that COULD happen utilizing simulations I'm back to run my simulations. Let's see what they tell us.

@fplcopilot A fun non-template one for you to test 51315 Only FH and BB remaining

Comment below your team ID Top 3 chip strategies for your team will be suggested Example comment: 2498301 I will try to answer to as many as **humanly** possible today

@FPL_Brandon Been on FH33 ever since I went WC29

Which way are you leaning?

@FPLPriceChanges Planned on it. Will likely start him after the Szoboszlai red card now though

@FPL_Brandon My flowchart was much simpler I needed the sleep, so I slept

Here’s my Gameweek 23 team. Rank: 19,590 Free Transfers: 4 Transfers: O’Reilly, Guiu → Alderete, Thiago Captain: Saka Chips left: All I had a flowchart ready for City leaks as I work every Saturday morning and only had about five minutes before the deadline to react to the Haaland and Foden benched leak. The issue was that in the scenario where both Foden and Haaland were benched, my moves depended on whether O’Reilly started or not. If I’d known he was starting, I would’ve gone Foden, Guiu → Ndiaye, Thiago. But without a leak, I didn’t feel confident relying on O’Reilly. It feels wrong holding Foden while he’s benched, but selling him would’ve required three transfers or starting O’Reilly. I can move him on next week, and I didn’t like Bruno this week anyway. Thiago and Alderete also set me up well long term, moving away from a 4-5-1 while keeping Tavernier. Chaos, but I stuck to the flowchart.

@fplreview @alimpan_barua Would putting in 1’s where the fixtures are and 0’s where the fixtures could go work? Gives people the chance to fiddle without influencing default decision making

@alimpan_barua Hey, I think I'll let the discussion around the more distant D/BGWs mature a bit. I don't have the chance to get too in the weeds on them right now and worry if numbers go up now they may be taken literally

@fplreview Now that we have projections till gw36, can you add fixtures probabilities for gw33, 34 and 36 in uncertain fixtures section ?

@BYUCougars I think BYU has a good case, but this is cherry picking

Objectively, how do you defend this: Miami (10–2) – ESPN SOS: 45 – ESPN SOR: 14 – Did not play for a conference championship – Losses: Two 8–4 teams (SMU, Louisville) BYU (11–2) – ESPN SOS: 22 – ESPN SOR: 9 – Played in the Big 12 championship – Losses: No. 4 Texas Tech on the road & in the Big 12 title game Notre Dame (10–2) – ESPN SOS: 44 – ESPN SOR: 13 – Did not play for a conference championship – Losses: Miami (who lost to two 8–4 teams) & No. 7 Texas A&M

@FPL_Brandon Season’s going alright, very minimal free time to allocate to FPL Started off fine, absurd negative variance GW 6-8 to plummet to 5.2m, skyrocketed back up to 1.4m after a 73-pt GW12 Current team:

@ConnorMeissner1 I mostly agree. EV is king, but sacrificing tiny amounts for extra risk can help you more align with your rank goals, especially on a Free Hit where stacking adds upside with almost no EV loss. Agree with the rest. How’s your season going mate? Not spoken in a while.

I am Free Hitting this week and decided to write a long piece on increasing your exposure to luck in FPL. This is especially important on a Free Hit week. Insightful read if your attention span is not cooked. Topics covered: • Risk in FPL • Risk on a Free Hit • Correlated Variance (CoVar) Why incorporate more risk on a Free Hit than in your normal team? A Free Hit is a great opportunity to add risk because the decisions do not roll over for multiple gameweeks. Everything is contained to a single week, and a single gameweek naturally carries far more variance than a longer stretch of matches. In probability, risk has equal upside and downside, but not equal strategic value. A Free Hit lets you target an extreme outcome in a week of your choosing, often when low-owned picks have higher expected value. Get it right and you can separate from the crowd in one gameweek, get it wrong and the loss is contained to that week. That is why a Free Hit is the perfect moment to embrace volatility and chase upside. How to expose yourself to risk on a Free Hit The most common approach is to go for low-owned punts. This works, but you will naturally end up with some low-owned players anyway because you are taking one week punts. A less common but extremely powerful method is to embrace defensive and offensive stacking of players with correlated outcomes, which I refer to as Correlated Variance, or CoVar. Defensive CoVar is generally stronger than offensive CoVar because defenders from the same team are heavily correlated through clean sheets. They usually either all get the clean sheet or none do. Stacking two or three defenders from the same team increases the chance of an extreme outcome, both good and bad. This gives you the best odds of a huge return, and the strategy is so strong that many fantasy formats add stacking penalties to limit it. In the table, you can see the clean sheet outcome probabilities for Free Hit 13. It is boom or bust, but the odds of hitting a haul favour stacking. Offensive CoVar means stacking two or three attackers from the same team. A single goal can generate returns for both the scorer and the assister within your team. Midfielders also correlate through a clean sheet point, although bonus points are shared. You are essentially betting on one team performing well and needing fewer goals for a big overall return. With two attackers, there are two ways to get correlated returns from a single goal. Add a third attacker and this increases to six possible scoring-assist combinations. That is why triple attacking stacks massively increase the chance that at least two players profit from every goal. The same logic applies if defenders chip in with attacking returns. It is important to highlight that while stacking is powerful, you should still aim to maximise expected points and avoid sacrificing too much just to force stacks. For example, City have the best clean sheet odds, but a defensive triple-up without Haaland gives up too many expected points. I hope you found this piece insightful.

@UnfortunateMLB Losing from that situation isn’t a choke… Red Sox were still favored to win at that point

@psc_highlights @tdcantrell23 Well they’re deciding where gameday will be this year, not where it will be since 2016 so…

@tdcantrell23 I was ready to post the same thing lol. People acting like the spread in USF vs Miami should be a deterrent when UGA and Tennessee haven’t played a one score game since 2016!

Is ESPN aware they’re allowed to go to non SEC/B1G games for Gameday? Picking this over USF vs Miami is malpractice.

@nole_atl Just a reminder: #8 Notre Dame has yet to lose to an opponent ranked below them

Just a reminder: #8 Notre Dame has yet to win a football game this season

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